Intro
In the last e-zine on April 23rd, we noted that a big high was coming from
the West, bringing four or five days of clear skies. It hasn't let us down
and has been a dry spell over the past week. Also, we are in for another
week of dry weather over most districts, apart from odd falls around
Northland and Hawkes Bay.
Thanks for your letters about this mag, and helpful suggestions.
This week's topic of interest is the Grand Alignment of the Planets, a
huge non-event of cosmic proportions.. I have reprinted here what is
actually already on the website in the 'monthly mag.' I do this because
not everyone sees that link, so I have been told.
Heather Shiels of TV1 interviewed me about the Alignment on Saturday
morning but, realising I was not painting a horror-picture decided to can
the story. The media only wants extreme stories, which is a pity as there
is no balance otherwise, and the population can get needlessly alarmed.
Anyway, I told them it should be renamed the Grand Yawn.
Weather: around World
It looks like snow in Edinburgh and Aberdeen in Scotland about 16th May. I
posted this to The Independent and it seems they are going to make some
mention of it. Unusual because it will be only three weeks away from the
middle of their summer. The temperatures on the 16th look like being
around 3degC there on that day. Plus there'll be a northerly blowing cold
air down from the North Pole. Brr. So ..whatever happened to global
warming?
Viewpoint
On May 5th, 2000, all the planets are supposed to be in alignment. This,
according to some, will cause the earth to suffer earthquakes, volcanic
eruption, and various other nasty stuff. True?
Well, there will be bad weather just afterwards, which means good news for
Northland farmers, but it won't be due to the planetary alignment. This
week, midnight May 4 NZ time, yes, six planets will align in almost a
straight line, with the Earth on one side of the Sun and five planets
aligned on the other. It will be the first time in 6000 years that this
particular alignment has taken place.
However, the alignment of planets on May 5thÝ will be far from
perfect -- the planets won't line up in anything like a straight line.
Instead, the planets will simply be located in the same general region of
the solar system.
A similar alignment occurred in March of 1982 and nothing happened. In the
1982 alignment, the planets including Uranus and Neptune were located on
one side of the sun for the first time in 176 years. The alignment this
year WON'T be as complete -- Uranus, Neptune and Pluto won't be involved.
But 1982 was NOT a year of crazy cataclysmic events, despite some claims
that it was. I have the records. First off, March 10th 1982, the day of
the Alignment, was as calm as could be around here. In NZ it was quite
cloudy across the country, but generally fine and warm. In the UK too it
was mostly settled, with occasional rain and fine breaks in most
districts. In the days following, these showers mostly cleared. London had
a cloudy calm day, as did most of Europe.
Johannesburg was clear; NY had rain, LA was cloudy, and Stockholm, Tel
Aviv, Tokyo, Toronto, Vancouver, Vienna, Frankfurt - the list goes on -
were ALL clear skied. Why? Because the Moon was behaving itself, that's
why! It was after 3rd Q and coming up to New Moon, A VERY CALM TIME OF THE
MONTH. Also, the Moon was in apogee that day - the winds were the lightest
for the month in most countries of the world. The March perigee WAS the
third closest for the year - but THAT didn't occur until 14 days
afterward, so you can discount it.
People fail to realize that the other 9 planets only exert a very tiny
gravitation pull on the earth. If you were to add up the gravitational
force from the rest of the planets, the total would only amount to a
fraction of the tug that the Moon has on the earth.
For instance, the earth's tidal pull due to our moon is nearly one-third
of a million times greater than the solar pull due to Jupiter. The actual
height of the tidal bulge caused by Jupiter on the sun is less than one
millimeter! Compare that to the several feet of a Moon-indiced seatide on
Earth.
Rather conveniently for those who believe in Alignment scares, Moon
factors come together at that time too, We have the occurring together of
a New Moon on the 4th, the lunar perigee on the 6th, and the northern
lunar declination on the 8th. Each of these factors in isolation can cause
weather to deteriorate. And in autumn at the moment in the Southern
hemisphere these three occur together. This year it's around May 5th, last
year it was May 15th and the previous year it was May 24th.
The build-up of MOON factors should bring showers to Gisborne on the 5th
and heavy rain to Northland on the 9th. But apart from that, on the day of
the Alignment, the 5th, no rain is expected across NZ or, for that matter,
even the UK. Melbourne, Adelaide and Hobart will get some rain from 4th to
9th, Sydney and Canberra will have showers on the 5th, but many other
areas will be fine, as will London, NY, LA, Chicago, Paris, and much of
Europe. A few days later, around the 9th and 10th, most of these cities
will cloud over; and some, like London, will see the only rain for the
month for a couple of days, then. I'm looking out the window now. All is
calm. If a calamity is going to happen, it's only got 4 days - it better
get crackin'!
Where did all this alignment business start? In 1610 Galileo discovered sunspots. When the planets align on the same side of the Sun, their powerful magnetic fields(particularly Jupiter's) interact with the magnetic fields of the sunspots, and cause them to "grow." The idea is that those sunspots in turn affect our climate, our rotation and therefore our earthquake potential. However, no correlation has been found between solar activity, changes in the earth's rotation rate, and earthquakes. During the great solar flares of 1960 and 1972, for example, no changes occurred in the earth's spin. A study of 9,697 major earthquakes has shown no dependence on solar activity. The Jupiter Effect hypothesis may be evaluated by checking the records for the similar alignment of 1804. The result is that sunspot activity was exceedingly weak during that year! BUT huge correlation exists for Moon factors and earthquakes. Quakes are triggered by the Moon. Syzygy(Full or New Moon) gets the tectonic plates upset. Lunar perigee magnifies it. Monthly lunar declinations exert a lateral pull. Stick all three factors together and you get the Moon orbital position that was present at the time of the Napier Earthquake. Quakes generally occur at a locality, if they're going to, at moonset or moonrise, when the Moon is at the horizon, and just after New Moon, Full Moon and/or perigee. So a big one IS very likely at or around May 8th.
Conclusion? Bad weather for a bit, yes, a few days after the Alignment, but absolutely expected due to the autumn Moon. Also a likely series of quakes around the world for a few days afterward. But it'll be the Moon, not the Alignment, and the Alignment itself will have negligible effect. Anyone claiming otherwise risks becoming the laughing stock they became when the 1982 alignment did not, as predicted, destroy Auckland, Los Angeles, San Fransisco, Tokyo and many other towns and cities in earthquake areas. I assure you that on the morning of May 6th your city will still be standing.
Interesting Websites
For Moon rise/set times anywhere in the world
http://riemann.usno.navy.mil/AA/data/docs/RS_OneYear.html
For finding the temperature using cricket chirps
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/elp/wxcalc/cricket.html
Global warming rubbished
http://www.vision.net.au/~daly/dalybio.htm
http://sightings.com/general/climate.htm
http://www.cato.org/pubs/pas/pa-329es.html
http://www.ncpa.org/hotlines/global/gwhot.html
http://www.junkscience.com/news2/singer28.htm
Earthquakes, latest in NZ (one near New Plymouth lately)
http://www.gphs.vuw.ac.nz/seismology/igns_report.html
Photo of NZ from satellite
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/national/satellite/IDE00005.latest.shtml
Stone circles in NZ
http://www.celticnz.co.nz
http://www.kilts.co.nz
Q's and A's
Q: You say CFC's are 5 times heavier than air, so couldn't float up to the
ozone layer. How much heavier then air are salt, dust and other particles
that raindrops and snow flakes form on. If they are in the same weight
range as CFC's and if they get high up, then CFC's probably do also.
(P.Jackson, Sheffield, UK)
A: I think it's wishful thinking on the part of those who don't want to let go of the pollution scenario, to suppose that all those particles might make it to Antarctica(rather than the Arctic for some strange reason - they obviously enjoy air travel more and views). Given that mankind lives on less than 1% of the earth's surface, which is where CFCs can only originate from, as against the vast ocean surfaces which can give up salt, and the vast deserts which can offer dust - you would think that the detectors down around the South Pole would mainly report finding dust and salt and proportionately far less chlorine. But no. It seems chlorine is the preferred find! That suggests that dust and salt go elsewhere for their holidays, and CFCs book the Antarctic air exclusively, to dump their chlorine in. Scientists must be very clever to be able to tell apart Mt Erebus chlorine from northern hemisphere CFC chlorine.
Q: Since the World has been warming since the Industrial Revolution I do
not see how the Lunar Cycle of less then 19 years fits in. It has been a
lot longer than 19 years since the start of the Industrial Revolution.
(P.Ashby, UK)
Ý
A: The cities have grown larger with more asphalt and this has had a heat
retention factor ..cities getting warmer as expansion continues. That's
not the world. That's 1% of the world, if that. I dispute that the world
has been heating since the Industrial Revolution. All climatologists agree
that between 1940 and 1980 everything cooled, and some were calling it a
mini Ice Age. They can't seem to make up their minds if the world is
heating or cooling. Whatever it's doing, they say it's all due to
greenhouse gases in some way.
Contact
Editor: Ken Ring
Phone: land. 09-817-7625, fax. 09-817-2203, mobile 021 970-696
Postal: P.O.Box 60197 Titirangi, Auckland 7, New Zealand.
E-mail: ken@weatherman.co.nz
Internet: http://www.predictweather.com
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Contributions: The editor reserves the right to include or exclude contributions
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Disclaimer: The contents of this document are the views and opinions of the editor and/or associates only, and carry no guarantees as to accuracy. No responsibility will be undertaken by the editor or webmaster for actions or outcomes on the part of readers as a result of information contained herein. Opinions expressed by contributors and reprinted are likewise their own and may or may not reflect the views of the editor or the webmaster.
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commercial gain. All Rights Reserved (c) Ken Ring 2000.