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weather ezine #007

june 2000

by Ken Ring

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Intro
Weather
Q's and A's
Websites
Contact


Intro: About the Sun
The solstices and equinoxes divide the year into 4 seasons, defining the seasons which result from the tilt of the earth on its own axis(currently 23.5deg with respect to its orbital plane)We had winter solstice a few days ago, when the Sun gave the southern hemisphere its shortest day for the year. So I thought this is a good time to tell you some Sun facts. Our solar system is orbiting near the outside of the Milky Way galaxy. It takes about 220 million years for the Sun to complete one loop around the center of the galaxy.
The Tropics of Capricorn and Cancer (Latitudes 23.5 degrees south and north) were so named since 2000 ago, the Sun appeared directly overhead and in the constellations Capricorn and Cancer on the winter and summer solstices. Today, solstices appear instead in the constellations Sagittarius and Taurus due to Earth's gradual rotation about its axis. While Jupiter contains only about 0.1 percent of the mass of the Sun, the Sun contains 99.9 percent of the total mass of the solar system. The sun's interior could hold 700,000 Earth-sized planets. The Sun has a rotation, lasting 21 earth-days.
Total eclipses of the Sun are rare from any one location on Earth, occurring only about once every 400 years. Aristarchus of Samos, who flourished in the early 3rd century B.C., was the first to argue that the Earth moves around the Sun. His contemporaries ridiculed this belief. It takes 8 1/4 minutes for light to reach Earth from the Sun. This means that when you first see the sun rise it has already been above the horizon for 8 minutes.
Total solar eclipses are a geometrical coincidence. Although the Sun is 400 times larger than the Moon, it is also 400 times further away from Earth, allowing the two bodies to seem the same size when they overlap. A bucket filled with earth would weigh about 5 times more than the same bucket filled with Sun molecules. However, the force of gravity is so intense on the Sun that a person weighing 150 pounds on our planet would weigh 2 tons on the Sun!

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Weather: coming
Get things done this week, because next week you'll be seeking shelter. The biggest perigee for year 2000 is due on July 1st. That means the Moon will be the closest to the earth for the whole year on that day: almost as close as it was last December (then 700km further away). Expect REALLY big tides and a fair bit of unsettled weather after next weekend, especially gales. Being within 2 hours of the New Moon means this bad outlook will be compounded. Also, the Moon will be at its northern declination point (northernmost point) for the month. As if that's not enough, Mars, Mercury and Venus will be plonked together in the sky. Within a couple of days of the weekend a very large earthquake may be in the news, this being the ideal lunar setup for one to occur. Of course, saying that probably means that one won't, due to Murphy's law.

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Q's and A's

Q: A question: is it true you can tell when rain is coming when the crescent moon, viewed as a cup holding liquid, is tipping over so the liquid can tip out?Ý If no rain is coming, the crescent moon, viewed in the same way, is positioned so that the liquid does not tip out. I have heard this from two gardeners who work with the moon phases in their gardening.Ý One is a wellknown bio-dynamic gardener in the north, Ginny Clayton, and the other is a top rose grower who has a four acre garden which she and her husband open to the public, Paul and Sonja Mrsich, who, as their name suggests, both come from a Dalmation background. I noticed the phenomeonÝ for the first time myself earlier this month. The crescent moon was definitely tipping over as though for the liquid to fall out, and yes, it rained, when the conventional forecast said 'no rain'.Ý I couldn't tell you which night it was, and have decided I need to keep a notebook to record the daily weather!
(Dianne Smith)

A: I don't put too much faith in the "cup tipping water out" folklore, for the following reasons. The position of the crescent is VERY MUCH THE SAME for each lunar month for approximately the same time of the year (allowing for the fact that the New Moon does not fall on the same date of a month in each year). So it is unlikely that the position of the new crescent could, in itself, offer any indication on what the weather would be for the ensuing days or month. If this were so, then WHENEVER the New Moon came in on its back, the weather would be dry and this dryness would reoccur at about the same time each year. This, we know, is not correct.
I think there is a human element in that the adage of one location, found to work sometimes, gets locked into the local folklore over and above the fact that weather change depends a lot on local topography. Then the community moves geographically and in their new locations the same adages can't apply in the same way because latitudes and landscape features have changed under the same Moon. A Crescent Moon in the shape of a tipping cup in the northern hemisphere will be reversed in the southern hemisphere. A RISING crescent is a last quarter moon and will be seen (by the brave few!) very early in the MORNING. The SETTING crescent is the first quarter moon and in the AFTERNOON, which most do relate to as it begins the month. The New Moon at this time of year occurs over the northern hemisphere, so we are more likely to get changeable weather over the winter months with a New Moon, whereas in our summer we have the New Moon in the southern hemisphere, less likely to be a problem moon. In other words, summer New Moons wherever you are will be relatively stable and the "cup" will "hold water". Not so in winter where the Crescent Moon generally sees the end of rain that follows a New Moon, so it IS a changeable time. If fine, rain is not far away and vice versa. Selective focussing would then tend to support the old folklore.


Q: Hello Ken To start with, your UK forecast:
'18th - 19thÝ A ridge of high pressure covers most of the country, except for far NW.'
Yep, we had a mini-heatwave on the 17th and 18th with High pressure as you said over the UK.
'20th - 23rdÝ Low pressure moves into SW, moving to NE by 25th, bringing showery weather.'
Once again yep, Low pressure moved in and has now settled to the Northof Scotland with showers (showery rain)...cold NW wind.
WELL DONE SIR.
There's also a guy from the UK Sean Lovett who was on TV a few days ago and he was into predicting Stock Market crashes when he accidentally found that hurricanes followed the same pattern. To your knowledge has anyone correlated the Moon cycles to the Stock market?
A: Yes, it's done quite a lot in Asia and there are some URLs devoted to it. Wheat prices were thought to fluctuate as to the Moon in a small book I was given some time ago called Manual Of The Weather, written in 1831. It makes sense, because if agriculture is moon-dependent, then the earnings from it will be also.


Q: Ken, I was wondering if you would please send me any info you have on the people in NZ 4000 years ago. We have a grommet (young guy) staying with us at the moment who is from Dargaville.Ý He tells me that an old local guy from Parau was working on building the first roads up there and they found what they thought to be Spanish helmets and remains.
A: It seems like there have been heaps of different peoples on these shores for thousands of years. There are many Maori stories of whole shipfuls of Spanish and Portugese sailors who were massacred and eaten. Helmets are found in tribal archives that were used as cooking pots. There are still many graves up north with full coats of armour on the skeletons, tapu of course, so no investigations can be made. I could show/tell you of standing stones around Auckland at least 4000 years old. Who were they? PreCeltic/Middle Eastern/ preBritons or Phoenicians. In Maori legend they are fair skinned and red haired - called the Tangata Whenua until a couple of years ago, when that name switched to mean present day Maori. (Funny that) I have a book of ancient seamaps describing NZ in 1538, in which it is called Los Roccos Insula, well before the time of Tasman and Cook. The Piri Re'is map of 1513 too is very accurate as regards the shapes of the continents and the global world. Also there are ancient sea maps that show Antarctica without snow, indicating their artistic origin to be before the last Ice Age. Certainly there were people criss-crossing the Southern Pacific thousands of years ago in big ships. Some came down through the Bering Strait, the later-lost North-West Passage, from Britain, from where it is a straight line to the North Island. Viking ships have been discovered with kauri planks, indicating they perhaps put in here for repairs at least.

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Interesting Websites

Ordain yourself a minister
http://ulc.org/ulc/

Hard-core Christian pornography?
http://chick.com

Dissect a frog
http://curry.edschool.virginia.edu/go/frog/

NASA pics of all Earth from space
http://earth.jsc.nasa.gov/

Astrology in NZ
http://homepages.ihug.co.nz/~lianne9/

World's newspapers
http://www.onlinenewspapers.com/

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Contact
Editor:
Ken Ring
Phone: land. 09-817-7625, fax. 09-817-2203, mobile 021 970-696
Postal: P.O.Box 60197 Titirangi, Auckland 7, New Zealand.
E-mail: ken@weatherman.co.nz
Internet: http://www.predictweather.com
Subscribe: Send a blank email to weather-subscribe@topica.com.
Contributions: The editor reserves the right to include or exclude contributions submitted. Comments or questions for Q's and A's should be addressed to ken@weatherman.co.nz
Disclaimer: The contents of this document are the views and opinions of the editor and/or associates only, and carry no guarantees as to accuracy. No responsibility will be undertaken by the editor or webmaster for actions or outcomes on the part of readers as a result of information contained herein. Opinions expressed by contributors and reprinted are likewise their own and may or may not reflect the views of the editor or the webmaster.
Copyright: This e-zine is subject to international copyright laws but may be freely distributed to all interested parties; except for purposes of unauthorized commercial gain. All Rights Reserved (c) Ken Ring 2000.

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