This weekend's weather 6th/7th
Ooops..I said snow in central North Is, but my charts were obviously a week out here. There WAS a sprinkling of snow on the high ground of both islands around New year. The predicted fine cool spell coming was the front running up the middle of the country from Taupo beginning on Saturday, translating into some heavy cloud over the west of Auckland on Friday and as far as the Bay of Islands.
Next weekend's weather 13th/14th
13th: Fine in most places with some light cloud morning and night,
especially SE.
14th: Rain likely over most of the South Is and south and west of the
North Is. Heavier in Westland, Otago and Southland. Floods a possibility.
The second biggest perigee for the year occurs on January 10th at 9am, two
hours after the Full Moon has set over Auckland. That means it will be its
closest to earth over Karachi, Pakistan. Cyclones are forming right now
around NE Australia, but the effects won't reach us till around 14th.
Plenty of time to bring the washing in.
Around the time of perigee, 9th/10th, the Moon cuts along a line northeast
through Australia then onto Karachi, Florida, the California coast, and
then back around the Earth to north Oz.
Remnants of this cyclonic activity should reach NZ 14th-17th, affecting
the South island and North Island west coast more than other areas. Actual
Perigee takes place approximately 13 hours after the FM at a distance of
357131KM and still over the northern hemisphere, around the area bounded
by Karachi/Oman/Persian Gulf. This is not the 'mega' perigee of the year.
That takes place next month, during Feb. 8th. at a distance of 356852KM.
But this one will make its international presence felt alright. The second
largest perigee of the year+northern dec+full moon combination is not the
time to plan a church picnic or be thinking about getting in the hay. But
a couple of days later will be okay for both.
An interesting area for international forecasters to keep a close eye on would be an area bounded by the southern regions of Iran and Iraq down into NE Saudi Arabia. This area will probably suffer from either seismic activity or abnormal weather (if weather - coldwave and/or snowy conditions) in a few days time. Also, there's a developing tropical low NE of Darwin at the moment, and off the coast of Arnhem Land in the Northern Territory - high probability of becoming a cyclone by Tuesday. It may move slowly west closer to Darwin.
More of the ongoing discussion with Bob McDavitt.
Hi there Ken
B:ÝÝ Yes, I can confirm that MetService accuracy for urban forecasts
steadily improved during the 90s and now stands at 85 to 90%.
K:Ý But I assume you mean from the previous day to the next, because 3 or
4 days ahead sees wild swinging in matching what was predicted to what
happens. What would be your accuracy 6 months ahead to the day, which is
what I'm trying to do and what I have thought all along we are comparing.
B: Our computer models are only good enough for an extrapolation for the
next 5 days. The ensemble technique allows us to try a fortnight ahead,
but results are uneven and this technique seems to miss the extreme
events! Sad. Nope, our methods do not allow a "down to the day" forecast 6
months in advance...and so one would have to wait until Feb 1 for our
forecast for Feb 6th, etc. Anyway, we do not score the 3 or 4 day
forecasts at all...just today's and tomorrows.Ý And even then there's the
odd month which drops below 75%...so at times the weather is less
forecastable than at others. So the mix of pattern and chaos keeps
changing. Still, that shouldn't stop you from doing your own
verifications. That's what I think you want to do this year. As to getting
data for verification...I'd suggest the Institute (NIWA). If you want a
lot of past daily data then WMO or NOAA sell it by the CD-load for a few
$100US for the whole world.
K: Do they have observations for NZ towns going way back 23 years that I
can purchase? NIWA have it, but I rang them last week and they want to
charge me over $2000 for a bunch of data. That prices me out, and if there
is a cheaper source I'll have to try it first.
B: If there is some useful value in using the "modes of the moon's orbit"
as timers to identify weather patterns, then its probably better to go
"down to the week" rather than "down to the day" ...
K: Yes, that's what I keep trying to tell people is the main value of what
I am doing. The likes of some in the media can't get their heads around
that.
B:Ý If your verifications show that forecasts from this technique are more
useful thanÝ "persistence" and "climatology" then we are on to
something.... especially since your technique seems to lend itself towards
timing of extremes, and our techniques do not.
K: We(!)'d have to keep a running eye on my website Freemonth page.
B: On IPCC and Global warming...Dr Jim Salinger is a personal colleague of
many of the scientists on that team, so his carreer is tied up with IPCC
and its establishment..it is in the interest of those who sell petrol and
oil for the IPCC prenouncements to NOT be followed.
K: Aha. That explains Dr J's passion about GW. And it's in the interests
of Greenpeace etc in order to boost recruitments and therefore
subscriptions that they DO, not to mention all the other panickers.
B: So some data is being misinterupted on purpose.
K: On BOTH sides
B: Sadly it is beginning to became a "data-war"
K: All to my point that so much profit motive is tied up with promoting
global warming that it is hard to detect truth without taking away all
those scientists who might be reaping something from its promotion.
B:Ý I'm also thinking your technique could be improved by including other
cycles (sunspots?) (sun's orbit), or at least by some sort of seasonal
consistency: don't, for example, use weather patterns from some July a few
years ago as the possible analog weather pattern for next month just
because their lunar orbits co-align....the sun plays with our horse
latitudes, so winter is never like summer.
K: Well, the 22/23 year cycle is a sun thing (2 x 11) and shows up as gaps
between severe winters occasionally (e.g UK 1941 then 1963 then 1985, all
three very severe)
B: You see, I still think the lunar induced atmospheric tide is puny.
K: Nah. Your maths must be wrong(g). How can 5 million billion tons of
movable air be puny? BTW, did you notice that a big perigee is coming on
the 10th, second biggest for the year?
B: And near a full moon and a northern declination...That's windy for
somewhere in the Northern hemisphere?
K: Yes, and down here a few days later.
(continuing)
Hi Ken
In your book there is a statement on page 58, fourth line under the table,
"Because the moon circles the earth once every day...."Ý Do you mean this
is the apparent effect due to the earth's rotation, or is this a typo
mistake?
Paul
(You're right of course, we rotate under the moon. The moon appears to
move by its diameter per hour, and has moved backward in its transit
through the sky by one of its diameters per day. It's a bit like sunrise
and sunset. The sun doesn't rise, it's not a cake, and it's not a jelly so
doesn't set. Rise and set should be called rollin and rollout, but that's
language for you.-K)
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