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weather ezine #019

january 2001

by Ken Ring

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Melbourne
One moon cycle ago
Next Weekend
Perigee just gone
Fishing great
Surf
Official Forecast
Letters
Events
Contact


Melbourne was hot, a week or so ago

Places mentioned to be copping really hot weather a little over a week ago were in the inland part of central and eastern South Australia. Many coastal areas were getting 40C+ (104+) temps including Adelaide (42C 107.6F). Melbourne went up to 43C (109.4F) and possibly higher. This was getting close to upper limits. Eggs will fry on rocks. Seems hot, I know, but let's get it into perspective re poles melting. To melt the polar caps requires an annual average increase of +36deg, that's 60 to 70degC. Before the poles even START to melt, humans will have all fried up on rocks.

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So what happened in 1982; one moon cycle ago?

In the USA they are telling us that they are getting the coldest winter ever. But human memory is very fickle. Here's a list of what happened exactly one moon cycle ago to the actual days of a week ago.

Record cold across the eastern United States. Pittsburgh Pennsylvania set a record with -18F.
Huge Arctic Outbreak across east.
Jackson, Mississippi records a temperature of -5F. -52 at Tower MN.
Chicago hits -25.
Buffalo NY set a new January record at -16.
-26 at Milwaukee was their coldest reading in 111 years.
-5 at Washington DC was their coldest since 1934.
Montgomery AL reached -2.
Jackson MS fell to -5.
Meanwhile, a terrific chinook wind was buffeting the Colorado foothills. Nearly half of the buildings in Boulder CO were damaged. The National Center for Atmospheric Research recorded a wind gust to 137 mph. The wind gusted to at least 120 mph twenty times during the early morning hours. 17 people are injured. Twenty planes are flipped over at Boulder airport. $4 million in damage.
Arctic air mass continued into invasion of the south as it moved into Florida. Homestead FL recorded a reading of 29 degrees, and Orlando fell to 23 degrees. Major damage to citrus and vegetables.
Low pressure moving along the Gulf coast spread snow and freezing rain over the South. An area of snow spread accumulations of up to 5 inches across the area before the precipitation changed to freezing rain and serious icing occurred.
The Atlanta GA area was paralyzed by snow and freezing rain.Ý
The area from Texas to South Carolina was assaulted by snow, sleet and freezing rain.
Major damage to agricultural and citrus crops in southern Florida.
-5F in Atlanta GA.
Southern California recorded its greatest snowfall on this date. The hills above Los Angeles were whitened by the snow. San Bernadino measured 15 inches and San Diego reported a trace. Five inches fell in Riverside. Three feet fell at Campo. Snow totals reached as much as 20 inches on Baja California with snow all the way to the edge of the Mojave..

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Next weekend's weather 27th/28th

27th: Fresh and gusty, mainly fine in the north and east, some showers in the west and far south.
28th: Mainly fine and mild, but gusty and cloudy with some rain in western areas and central North Island.
The next day sees rain nearly everywhere, except for the east coasts of both islands and Wellington/Marlborough.

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Perigee just gone.

Look what the second biggest perigee for the year dished up in the form of the El Salvador earthquake. There'll be a high chance of another disaster just after the BIGGEST for the year on Feb 7th/8th, and possible mayhem probably around the 10th. Interesting that the El Salvador quake, felt a thousand miles away in Mexico, happened at 17.33pm, the exact moment the moon was on the opposite hemisphere exactly in line through the earth to El Salvador. Very true to form.
And exactly one month (moon cycle) before, the El S. event, Mt. Popcatepetl woke up just up the road causing thousands of people to be evacuated. The plates over there are loose. Poppa will go again over the next day or so as the southern declination will be on 21st and the new moon on Thursday 24th.

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Fishing great

Best fishing, according to the moon, in coming weeks will be:

January 16th-20th
January 23rd-26th
February 7th-9th
February 22nd-24th
So all this week it will be excellent fishing, average on Saturday, bad on Sunday and Monday.

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Surf

Westerlies on Friday will pick up the surf. It is low at the moment because of the apogee on 24th. For the Piha competitions on 3rd swells will be higher, getting bigger all the time as we come up to the biggest king tide of the year around Feb 10th.

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Official Forecast.

Climate Outlook for Southland and Otago: December to February Atmospheric pressure patterns in the New Zealand region suggest generally settled conditions over the south of New Zealand, with weaker westerly winds to the south of the country. Below average rainfall is expected for the south of the South Island, and average to above average temperatures are likely. River flows are expected to be below average with 50% chance of below average flows.
(posted on the NIWA website in December 2000. Southlanders are still waiting for summer to arrive)

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Letters

Dear Ken
It's not everyone's cup of tea. I have Mr Whippy in Gisborne and at an event along the coast (just before full moon) I was telling this guy I was reading this book about the moon causing the weather.Ý He said 'So the moon's making it fine today?" and cut the conversation off.
Paul
(Sounds weird, I admit. The rule is when the moon's in the sky it's less likely to rain. Thunderstorms, lightning, hail etc mainly occur when the moon is below the horizon. - K).


Hi Ken
Feb 3rd big surfing contest at Piha any tips?
Luke(reporter, NZ Surfing Magazine)
(Feb 3rd: good strong swell, SW's, weather breaking up getting stormy. Gales in places. - K)

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Events

27th Jan(Anniversary weekend)
The London Bar Mission Bay Jazz & Blues Streetfest 7 - 11 p.m. Free Entry.ÝÝ Street closure begins at 6.p.m Enjoy a fantastic stroll through Mission Bay and listen to a variety of 23 live jazz & blues bands playing in special spots are you walk the street. Rotary Club of Newmarket will benefit from programme sales towards a charity.ÝÝ A number of prizes are to be won from a weekend for two at the luxury Novatel Hotel, downtown Auckland to dinners for two at popular Mission Bay restaurants.

27th - 29th at Kumeu Showgrounds. Auckland Folk Festival. Overseas and local guests, food available on site, camping facilities. Workshops, miniconcerts, children's sessions, big concert on Sunday night under the marquee. (Take a coat just in case, especially Monday)

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Contact
Editor:
Ken Ring
Phone: land. 09-817-7625, fax. 09-817-2203, mobile 021 970-696
Postal: P.O.Box 60197 Titirangi, Auckland 7, New Zealand.
E-mail: ken@weatherman.co.nz
Internet: http://www.predictweather.com
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Contributions: The editor reserves the right to include or exclude contributions submitted. Comments or questions for Q's and A's should be addressed to ken@weatherman.co.nz
Disclaimer: The contents of this document are the views and opinions of the editor and/or associates only, and carry no guarantees as to accuracy. No responsibility will be undertaken by the editor or webmaster for actions or outcomes on the part of readers as a result of information contained herein. Opinions expressed by contributors and reprinted are likewise their own and may or may not reflect the views of the editor or the webmaster.
Copyright: This e-zine is subject to international copyright laws but may be freely distributed to all interested parties; except for purposes of unauthorized commercial gain. All Rights Reserved (c) Ken Ring 2000 - 2001.

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