The Moon being closest to earth all year on 7th February will bring very high tides as it coincides with a Full Moon on 8th and a northern declination on 6th. The wind will whip up, too, creating great surf and good fishing afterwards. I'm told by Carl Smith in Australia that tropical cyclone Terri has already formed in the Timor Sea off Broome in Western Australia. Will it spread here? My feeling is that some effects may be felt around the 4th - 6th on the east coast of Northland, but mostly the cyclone will drift across to the northeast of the country, well clear of us.
The devastating quake in India that has just occurred, on Friday 26th at 8.46am, with, according to latest reports nearly 100,000 lives lost, happened the day after the New Moon + apogee, two days out from a southern declination. There are always quakes just after New or Full Moons, and big ones when they coincide with perigees or apogees and/or with declinations north or south.
On the same day and almost the same time(here) as the earthquake in India we had a minor eruption in Rotorua on the Friday afternoon. Local geologists were warning people to stay away from the area because more could eventuate. They were wrong. As the moon moves away from that cycle-specific situation the danger passes.
The next big one will be around February 8th or 9th.Ý Southern hemisphere areas with fault lines running north/south are in the potential danger zone (Chile, NZ, Ecuador)and correspondingly, northern hemisphere locations with east/west orientations(India, Alaska, Iran, Pakistan).
In 1966 the world experienced a similar February closest-perigee-for-year, 300kms closer than this February's perigee on the 7th.Ý What occurred? In the USA a strong coastal storm, 50 people killed, blizzard conditions with gale force winds, drifts to 10 feet. Some snowfall amounts were: Roanoke VA 17 inches; Washington and Baltimore 12 inches and Newport PA 16 inches. Totals reached as much as 20 inches on Baja California with snow all the way to the edge of the Mojave..
Last weekend 27th/28th
As we said, fine, cloudy and gusty on Saturday with some light showers. On
Monday rain was predicted but although dark clouds loomed in the late
afternoon, out in west Auckland we only had a drizzly patch that didn't
last. So, sorry if you were expecting a storm.
Next weekend, 3rd/4th Feb:
Expect a little more weather action. Fine in the North Is. on Saturday,
but a trough coming up from the SW should bring some light warm rain on
Sunday, mixed with fine intervals.
Best fishing, according to the moon, in coming weeks will be February
7th-9th and February 22nd -24th.
As for the in-between days;
1st - good
2nd - good
3rd - average
4th - excellent
5th - bad
6th - average
For the Piha competitions on 3rd swells will be higher, getting bigger all the time as we come up to the biggest king tide of the year around Feb 10th.
The following was posted on the NIWA website in December 2000
Climate Outlook for Southland and Otago: December to February
"Settled conditions over the south of New Zealand, with weaker westerly
winds to the south of the country. BELOW average rainfall is expected for
the south of the South Island.."
BUT the following has just appeared on their website: .."Rainfall was generally ABOVE average across the entire Southland and Otago regions for the mid December to mid January period. Departures from normal ranged from about 105% at Balclutha to about 160% at Ettrick and Manapouri. For eastern areas of Otago and Southland, rainfall has generally been ABOVE average since mid November.."
To my small brain it seems amazing that whereas these experts don't know from one month to the other what to predict, that they can project what the climate(as in the global warming debate)is going to be 10 years ahead, 20, 50 even 100 years.
Ken.
Urgently need rain for my tanks at Onewhero (Tuakau South)
Will I have to get tanker in, or should I wait a little longer.
Thanks
Ross
(I make it only about 4 potential rain days around south Auckland(as close
as I can get to you) in February. That's 4th-5th, 18th-19th, 25th-27th. So
you might have to consider the old tanker. Only my opinion, mind you. - K).
Ken
I find your theories very interesting, in particular the ozone hole.
However I can't find mention of the lower tidal fluctuations at the
equator. Which is relevant when I have been discussing your work with
friends. Is it mentioned somewhere? Perhaps I just missed it.
Andrew
(No, I haven't mentioned lower tidal fluctuations at the equator. It is
not directly relevant to my weather/moon discussion. In fact the
Mediterranean has hardly any tide. The equatorial regions travel slower
(as the earth rotates) than the more polar regions, due to the sphericity
of the earth. The Moon's tidal pull thus varies with latitude.- K)Ý
Re: 27th Jan(The London Bar Mission Bay Jazz & Blues Streetfest)
Hi Ken,
The event was a huge success..of your predictions, the one that was
accurate was the one that said gusty but dry with a few showers.ÝÝ I think
god put up his/her hands and moved the showers away from Mission Bay as it
rained almost every other part in Auckland but not at Mission Bay
consequently it didn't get cancelled.Ý We had between 15,000 - 20,000
people show up despite the cold wind and it was
the most fantastic first up event probably in N.Z, history!!!ÝÝ
Anna F.
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