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weather ezine #021

febuary 2001

by Ken Ring

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Old Weather Lore and what you had for dinner
New Moon and Xmas
Perigee coming
India aftershocks
Previous moon cycles
Weekend forecast
Fishing great
La Nada
Letters
Contact


Old Weather Lore and what you had for dinner

Watch the onion skins. Old lore says the thickness of some fruits and vegetables is a signal of weather coming.
ÝÝ Onion skins very thin,
ÝÝ Mild Winter coming in;
ÝÝ Onion skins thick and tough,
ÝÝ Coming Winter cold and rough.
The same apparently holds true for apple skins. Also, garlic gets harder to peel when thin. And if corn husks are thick and tight it was said to be a tough winter ahead.
Hickey and Auer of course never mention the moon. But Bob McDavitt says the metservice are always looking at new techniques..so long as those techniques don't have the word 'moon' in them. Do you think they might consider then, an Onion Skin Report? People have always cried when peeling onions. Perhaps when the skins were thicker it saddened them because they foresaw heftier power bills looming.

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New Moon and Xmas

It was often said that the nearer the New Moon was to Christmas Day, the harder would be the Winter. Well, December 25 2000 was ALSO the day of the New Moon, and indeed the winter of 2000/2001 in many parts of the northern hemisphere such as USA and Russia, the season has been particularly severe. However, on December 25 2001, the new Moon is on 15th, well away. Indications are that our winter down here WILL be mild and the northern hemisphere often follows our trend. So perhaps there's something in that.

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Perigee coming.

The Moon being closest to earth all year on 7th February will bring very high tides as it coincides with a Full Moon on 8th and a northern declination on 6th. Cyclone Terri fortunately did not spread here, and my feeling in the last ezine was borne out that some effects would be felt around the 4th - 6th in Northland, but mostly the cyclone would drift across to the northeast of the country, well clear of us.

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India aftershocks

I don't think we have seen the last of earthquake activity around India. The next big shake will probably be somewhere in the world around February 8th or 9th.Ý Southern hemisphere areas with fault lines running north/south are in the potential danger zone, and correspondingly, northern hemisphere locations with east/west fault lines. Watch out El Salvador, Japan and Indonesia.

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Previous moon cycles?

One moon cycle ago almost to the day, a huge supercell thunderstorm produced 4 tornadoes as it crossed the Houston TX area. It was also accompanied by 80-mph winds and tennis ball size hail, which caused widespread damage. One of the twisters devastated a mobile home park and the David Hooks Airport, causing 2 deaths and 80 injuries.

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Weekend forecast

Last weekend, 3rd/4th
I said to expect a little more weather action. Fine in the North Is. on Saturday, but a trough coming up from the SW did bring some light warm rain on Sunday, mixed with fine intervals.

Next
It will be dry now right to the 16th Feb. in Auckland, interrupted only by some cloud on Thursday.

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Fishing great

Best fishing, according to the moon, in coming weeks will be February 7th-9th and February 22nd -24th.

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La Nada

A correspondent writes 'Today I read in the paper that for those years that the ocean surface temperatures in the target area in the Pacific is neither above or below normal, that the year should be called -- pay attention now - a "La Nada" year.Ý For those who don't know much about the Spanish language, this means "The Nothing".Ý This is a "Nothing" year (so far) and it means that there could be a severe spring flood in Sacramento, or perhaps not.Ý Very informative. Don't these people have something better to do?

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Letters

Hi Ken,
I am competing in the 'Coast To Coast' one day race being held on 10 Feb. I am wondering what your prediction will be for the West Coast ( Hokitika way) of the South Island, thru to the Alps and over into the Canterbury plains and into Christchurch.
I would love to know your thoughts.
Thanks very much,
Grant
(There will be some wind, but conditions clearing, not too hot and any showers not lasting. The prognosis is for improving and more settled weather -K)


Ken.
Urgently need rain for my tanks at Onewhero (Tuakau South)
Will I have to get tanker in, or should I wait a little longer.
Thanks
Ross
(I make it only about 4 potential rain days around south Auckland (as close as I can get to you) in February. That's 4th-5th, 18th-19th, 25th-27th. Might have to consider the tanker. - K).


Today, in Northwest Connecticut, we received 18 inches of snow beginning around 11 am this morning.Ý This came as a big surprise to me.Ý Early this morning I looked out the window and it was overcast and gloomy. By 2 pm I decided to take another peek out the window, and it was a blizzard with about 8 inches of snow blanketing the landscape.Ý I could find nothing that would have indicated a prediction for a storm like this.Ý
Cely
(Call it coincidence if you will, but at 11am this morning you had the Moon exactly at IC, meaning at the lowest point in the atmospheric tide, meaning atmosphere above you severely reduced to the minimum amount. This happens every day anyway, and at a time that suits the phase, but the huge perigee magnifies everything. All tides, on sea and in air, are biggest and lowest at this time. It snowed because the density of air above you was extremely low, and with little atmospheric blanket to prevent it, the cold of space rushed in with a snow dump. The combination of northern declination, Full Moon approaching, perigee and IC is spelling trouble all over the planet. Not to trivialise your local event, there'll be a million stories of extra gales, cloudbursts, snowdumps, heatwaves, thunderstorms and whatever else the local conditions can serve up right now but especially at IC, rise or set times and 45, 135, 225 and 315deg. We're getting past 1st Q Moon now, but one should nearly always expect something of an event during the morning of a 1st Q Moon, even if it's just extra cloud, coolness, heat etc until the moon gets up above the horizon and restores some protection- K)


Hi Ken
I was wondering if you got time would you be able to give me idea what the weather might be on Stewart Island Between Feb 13 & 21. I have booked a hunting trip there and was hoping to stay warm and dry, what are my chances.
Pete
(I only have past data for Invercargill. So it'll be only a rough guide. Typical Last Quarter mean and ratty weather. But looks mild in temperature, I'd say take a coat, no need for suntan lotion. Warm but not dry -K)


Hi Ken,
I'm the Parade Coordinator for the Hero Parade 2001.Ý I've heard you on Bfm and heard only good things about your work. As I'm sure you're aware the Parade relies on good weather (as much as one ever can).Ý We've had a few nasties in the past and just wondering if you are able to give us any more detail on Sat Feb 17th.
Larissa
(The 17th is not a particularly good date. I'm guessing for drizzle on the Saturday and quite a shower on Sunday 18th. But it will be even worse the following Saturday, when I'm expecting a downpour. In fact not till March 10th is there a good Saturday, unless you went for the 10th or 11th of this month which is going to be dry but probably a little too close to organize for-K)

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Contact
Editor:
Ken Ring
Phone: land. 09-817-7625, fax. 09-817-2203, mobile 021 970-696
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Contributions: The editor reserves the right to include or exclude contributions submitted. Comments or questions for Q's and A's should be addressed to ken@weatherman.co.nz
Disclaimer: The contents of this document are the views and opinions of the editor and/or associates only, and carry no guarantees as to accuracy. No responsibility will be undertaken by the editor or webmaster for actions or outcomes on the part of readers as a result of information contained herein. Opinions expressed by contributors and reprinted are likewise their own and may or may not reflect the views of the editor or the webmaster.
Copyright: This e-zine is subject to international copyright laws but may be freely distributed to all interested parties; except for purposes of unauthorized commercial gain. All Rights Reserved (c) Ken Ring 2000 - 2001.

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