On March 21st at 1.30am NZ time the sun crosses the east/west line in its
daily risings, heading northwards. In the southern hemisphere the summer
sun rises in the SW and slowly moves north, going from southernmost
position Dec 22nd(summer solstice) to the northernmost point (winter
solstice) June 21st. Halfway is when it crosses the equator, called
'equinox'(equal night) because on that day, the number of daylight hours
equals the number of darkness hours. Equinox marks the beginning of
autumn, which is why it is then that we change out of daylight saving.
What does this indicate weatherwise? The equinox is only about the sun. If
the sun controlled the weather then the same weather should occur every
equinox, right on March 21st. Of course we all know it does not.
The bad weather waits for the moon to get into position.Ý Readers of this
ezine will be aware that New Moon and Moon-crossing-equator are two bad
weather events, as is the Moon-at-southern-declination. On March 21st the
moon will be just leaving the southern declination and Auckland will get
light showers and light winds as a result. But I'm picking they will be
slight compared to the rain a few days later on the 26th. The March New
Moon always brings this double whammy. The March New Moon crosses the
equator heading north on March 25th this year. But next year that same
condition (March New Moon crossing equator heading north) occurs on March
14th and has to wait till March 31st in 2003. Last year the same condition
occurred earlier and later, on March 6th and April 4th. What they call
"equinoctial gales" will occur around those days, and not ever on March
21st unless the March New Moon and vernal equinox(Sun) occur on the same
day.
The mechanics of the situation are that when the sun is on the equator and
the New moon is also, a three-fold combined extra gravitational effect
occurs. They did occur on the same day, in 1966, with devastating gales
and floods a week later in Auckland, Nelson and central North Island
districts. In 1955 the New Moon plus equator-crossing PLUS the moon's
perigee coincided with the vernal equinox. And..did THAT bring some
weather! There was a raging cyclone in Fiji and Queensland, and a blizzard
in New York. In Brisbane three inches of rain fell in 20 minutes.
So this year March 25th-27th should see widespread rain, here and in most
parts of Australia. Blenheim and Nelson will get some on the 20th, but
Blenheim more on the 26th. New Plymouth sees showers only on the 26th.
Timaru, closer to the southern declination, should get more rain around
the 20th/21st.
Some readers will be familiar with ancient folklore which says when the crescent moon is on its back, it is "holding water". Is this true, and therefore some guide to bad weather coming? The answer is, well yes, partly.. At around 6am on 20th March and on the 20th April above the east the crescent-on-its-back moon can be seen. It is a few days before the New moon. There will be some rain in a couple of days BECAUSE of the New Moon, which can be relied on to serve up rain. Look again in the sky around 8pm in the evening of 24th July as the moon sets in the NW. Once again you'll see the crescent on her back. It is close to 1st quarter now, and moving away from New Moon. It means rain, yes, but this time it is going, but only because these two opposite crescents are on either side of that delinquent weather factor - the New Moon.
Next best fishing in March according to the moon will be 24th-26th. Good will be 17th. Don't bother at all on 20th/21st, and 28th/29th.
We said Auckland last week looked like having rain around the beginning of the week but dry weather from about Thursday on. The rain came Tuesday/Wednesday and was gone by Thursday.
Most areas have a bit of rain around 23rd and more on 26th.
This will stay here till the season starts. Light falls possible around the middle and definitely at the end of May, the end of the first week in June and end of June; pretty good around mid July; at the end of August; and really good in September with the good falls ending around mid October.
REAL facts from a scientific point of view, www.globalwarming.org
If anyone wants to see part of the Ancient Marker System at work in
Auckland, do join a small group of us around 6.30am on the summit of Mt
Albert at sunrise on the morning of Tuesday 20st, when the rising sun will
appear to rise from the top of the ancient heel stone (by the trig
station) at about 7.10am. The thin crescent moon lying on its back will
sit above the east pointing to the rising sun. It will be a remarkable
sight if the sky is clear. Unfortunately it's a day early but I'm picking
that the next day, which is the true equinox, may be too cloudy. That
(Tuesday) evening we will again assemble on Stockade Hill in Howick, where
once a stone circle stood, to watch the equinox sun disappear into the
man-made "V" that was cut into Mt Wellington for this very sighting
purpose at least 2,000 years ago. Some folk will be on Mangere mountain,
where there are more ancient equinox markers. Time of sunset over Auckland
is around 7.20pm.
Few Aucklanders realize that our city was inhabited thousands of years
ago, as proven by these many equinox structures. Are the media interested?
Nah. We tried to interest them last year, but only the Howick Times
printed anything.
If you could get along to at least one of these events it would be nice
for some of us to meet - and bring the kids!
Hi Ken,
My wife and I, and our pet rabbit really appreciate your web site.Ý Your
pages on Ozone and Global Warming were most educational - amazing what we
will take on and believe without asking any questions! It certainly allows
for a bit more relaxation in life and an 'unhooking' out of the mass
hysteria.Ý Very reminiscent of the whole Y2K panic isn't it. Anyway, thank
you for your alternative and humourous views on this.
Take care
Himiona and Anihera
and Mihinoa Rabbit
Hi Ken
I'm Matt I'm a greenkeeper in Swanson. I listen to Mikey Havoc in the
mornings and listen to you every week. You are a legend and don't let
anyone tell you different. Thank you so much. Your info helps us in ways
that you never only could dream of.
From Greenkeeper Matty
Ken
Every prediction I've heard of yours about fishing for the weekends has
been spot on, thanks heaps, I was wondering what your prediction for this
weekend is. It would be excellent to see a weekly fishing prediction on
your website.
thank you
Steven
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