The perigee (moon closest to earth in month) was last Thursday, and it brought some real gusty weather in some open areas of country. At Pleasant Pt near Timaru and on a cliff face, looking at an old prehistoric stone direction-marker system at the Hanging Rock Escarpement,Ý I was blown against a fence so hard by the raging norwester that I was virtually pinned. And then, within the space of an hour, it abated, as it often does as soon as the perigee moon starts to again move away from the earth. What was the time? The perigee over most of NZ was around 10.05am. Most of the wind had gone by 11.30am. Coincidence? I don't think so, as I have experienced the effect before.
What was I doing down there, I hear you ask. I had flown down to talk to two groups of farmers; at Mt Sommers and Waimate, sponsored by the ANZ. My grateful thanks to very gracious hosts Blair and Sarah Gallagher near Mt Sommers and Nicky Hyslop near Timaru. The countryside is totally brown now as seen from the air, nearly all the way from the Wairarapa to Otago. How heartbreaking it must be for the farming communities. My presentations seemed well-received, but the news was not the best for most of the year in South Canterbury. Whereas April, May and (especially) October see some rain, there's not a lot more until late May 2003. On the other hand, mid Canterbury sees good falls from December through to March, averting drought conditions next summer.
Yes, Blenheim got some rain, as predicted, around March 26th. But as we said, the big droughtbreaker is still to come. Auckland gets a fairly unsettled April with some rain just before Easter, just after, and about the 30th. Timaru gets some relief this month and next.
There are some winds that will nearly always herald one or two days of intense rain. In Auckland if it blows steadily from the northeast for a few days, a heavy fall often will soon arrive. The southwesterly brings dry conditions again. New Pymouth and Wanganui can see northwesterlies heralding big dumps. Nelson could at the moment welcome a rain-bearing northeaster and Wellington can often be on the receiving end ofÝ a northeaster OR a northwester. (The Full Moon + perigee gale that had sunk the Wahine had been a northwester that changed to a northeaster)
Next best fishing in April according to the moon will be 23rd-25th. On the 23rd the New Moon occurs having crossed the equator two days before. New Moon always brings excellent fishing prospects, and the crossing-equator factor speeds up dormant weather systems that have become slow-moving. 13th-18th will be average to good. But don't bother fishing at all on 11th/12th and 19th/20th.
For Whakapapa it looks like this year will be a good snow year; skiable
level 5000-5200 feet. Light falls are possible around the middle and
definitely at the end of May, the end of the first week in June and end of
June; pretty good around mid July; at the end of August; and really good
in September with the good falls ending around mid October.
As for the South island skifields, Andrew Orbell of Fairlie tells me that
when it pours down in Christchurch, in Fairlie they get good snow.
Unfortunately I don't have data for Mt Hutt to draw on - if anyone does
have past years listed at least back to 1963 for snow conditions, I would
be most happy to work out a prediction for snow for this year.
REAL facts from a scientific point of view, www.globalwarming.org
Easter is always at the same moon-based time of the year; namely the first weekend after the autumn equinox full moon. That's why the weather is nearly always bad either before or just after, Easter to Easter, year in and year out. This year the weather is mainly fine, with rains coming one or two days after.
Ken,
I have read your website. It is nice to hear from someone who is not
insane or on the take as per the average academic. I studied Environmental
Science at the University of Auckland from 91 thru 94. I was quite amazed
by how unscientific and unbased theories are peddled as fact to students
and how professors are so condescending when you dare to question them. It
has always been my belief that both Global warming and the ozone holes are
bollocks (As you so eloquently put it). I have only met one climatologist
who ever agreed with your point of view. His name is Chris de Frietas.
I have always thought that gw is not fact based, and that variations in
climate are due to natural fluctuation rather than human activity. That is
not to say that we should not strive for less polluting ways of producing
energy or sustainable technologies, but the impact of adverse activities
are micro to meso in impact. Namely, cut down the trees in Indonesia, and
ruin the local environment by choking the rivers with sediment and wiping
endangered species. These are tangible and provable, namely science. But
the truth that most research done on gw proves it not to be true. For
example, the climate is much cooler now that it was 10000 years ago. There
is loads of evidence that shows clearly the atmosphere has been warming
and cooling for millions. There is nothing to suggest that this should
discontinue, or that we would have any significant impact on it. I find it
most interesting that scientists have asserted that the nights are getting
warmer when all of the measurements to ascertain this are undertaken at
such places as airports and in cities where radiant heat is emitted in
vast quantities at night from surfaces such as asphalt which absorb energy
readily during sunlight hours and loose radiant heat during the night
equally.
Something else that I have often wondered about is El Nino Southern
Oscillation. I have asked many times what the trigger is. Apparently there
is no answer. It would seem logical that something like the moon would
have a measurable influence. What do you know about any correlation
between lunar cycles and El Nino? (El Nino is at the beginning (18deg end)
of the moon's 18.613 nodal cycle..-K)
I also find it interesting how newspapers report El Nino, gw and the ozone
hole as one and the same. Total misinformation. One other interesting
point is that before the polar caps melting caused any sea level increase,
simple thermal expansion on the oceans would cause significant sea level
rise. Also, often touted as proof of global warming is glacial shrinkage
in various areas though temperature rises. However, glaciers increase or
decrease in mass/length, based on volume of precipitation not temperature.
Lower levels of precipitation on the west coast causes the glaciers to
retreat. During the early nineties, they actually grew through high
snowfall in the southern alps at a rate disproportionate to the reduction
in the average free air freezing level from cooler weather. The converse
applies in the last few years.
Anyway, I now live in the UK and I wonder if you might be able to send me
a weather forecast for April and May so that I track the weather and see
how right I believe you will be. Incidentally, your hail and snow
prediction around the 24th in the South was spot on.
I look forward to hearing from you.
Regards
Paul
Contact
Editor: Ken Ring
Phone: land. 09-817-7625, fax. 09-817-2203, mobile 021 970-696
Postal: P.O.Box 60197 Titirangi, Auckland 7, New Zealand.
E-mail: ken@weatherman.co.nz
Internet: http://www.predictweather.com
Subscribe: Send a blank email to weather-subscribe@topica.com.
Contributions: The editor reserves the right to include or exclude contributions
submitted. Comments or questions for Q's and A's should be addressed to
ken@weatherman.co.nz
Disclaimer: The contents of this document are the views and opinions of the editor and/or associates only, and carry no guarantees as to accuracy. No responsibility will be undertaken by the editor or webmaster for actions or outcomes on the part of readers as a result of information contained herein. Opinions expressed by contributors and reprinted are likewise their own and may or may not reflect the views of the editor or the webmaster.
Copyright: This e-zine is subject to international copyright laws but may be freely distributed to all interested parties; except for purposes of unauthorized
commercial gain. All Rights Reserved (c) Ken Ring 2000 - 2001.