Hi folks
Many have written asking what this cyclone Sose is all about and whether
or not it is indeed "big, windy and heading our way" as the NZ herald
frontpage headline screamed this morning.
My opinion is no need for panic. 18 years ago EXACTLY we had Cyclone
"Sarah" start to form around 4th April (our equivalent time) in exactly the
same place and move towards us. It started moving down by 10th (yesterday)
and by 12th was all but gone, well east of the Chathams.
This moon-cycle time around, the same potential prevails, but maybe a day
or two earlier. It doesn't help that the moon is dragging things
southeast, but of note is that that dragging is lessened, as the most
southern declination point is reached on Saturday. As a result northern
areas should get rain on Friday and less on Saturday, fine again on
Sunday. But Tuesday and Wednesday, also possibility of good rain. This
explains my website entries.
Having said that, one needs to bear in mind that cyclones are
unpredictable - more so than anticyclones. They often don't end up where
they're supposed to be. I've seen them drift gently to the SE as I'm
expecting this one to do, but once or twice they head west back to
Australia and then charge into us from the side.
I hope this message answers some questions. Me, I wouldn't plan a picnic
for Friday.
cheers
Ken
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