"Big, windy and headed our way.."(NZ Herald 11/4/01). Sorry folks. Big bad
old Cyclone Sose petered out early. So early in fact that on Friday 13th
the TV3 weather man said it was no longer a force, but, due to another low
the next day, NZ would see rain over the whole South Is and 50mm would
fall on Marlborough. Well, I was there, the whole weekend, and not a cloud
in sight. Absolute blue skies. It was all a bit of a joke. Not only
Marlborough but the whole South Is was bathed in sunshine. As said in the
last ezine, the moon had lost its southward pull of any major systems, and
turned the corner on Saturday; on Tuesday (today) and tomorrow beginning
its northward climb again. For those possessing the Weather Almanac 2001,
you'll find the last-week-matching cyclone sitting on the weather map of
8th and 9th April, up in the right hand corner and slowly drifting
southeast.
Crossing Cook Strait on Friday was a little harrowing, especially as the
Lynx was tied up due to the rough conditions, putting on another sailing
of the Interislander. I thought, this is okay, the later we sail the
better. Southerlies were whipping up the waves, just what you don't
want(Northerlies blow the Cook Straits flat). By the time we did go,
around 9pm, after waiting around since 1pm, the sea had calmed right down.
Coming back on the Lynx on Monday was a dream. The Strait was an absolute
millpond.
Venus is no longer our evening star, but rising in the east around 4am each morning. The crescent moon is above it. Venus will now remain the MORNING star till December 2nd, after which it will disappear again from the morning sky due to the brightness of the sun.
Look for the dished crescent moon around 4am these days, if you're up that early, with the horns pointing up. In old folklore this meant that the moon was holding water, and rain was coming. That is pretty well right. We only see this shaped moon just before New Moon or just after. The New Moon nearly always brings rain. Why? Because it goes its fastest during this phase period, zooming, relatively speaking, towards and then between us and the sun. The two other times it speeds up is during perigee and when crossing the equator. And this particular New Moon, hitting us next Monday, will surely bring rain this week to most areas. Not only is it a New Moon, but it crosses the equator as well, actually around 8am this coming Saturday morning. This means a double chance of thunderstorm activity this week because a speeding moon increases the ionization in the atmosphere. As a simple corollaric explanation using basic electrical theory; a revolving wire crossing an electrical field increases the charges produced in that field.
How did we do last week? Not bad, actually. In Auckland we said rain on Friday and Saturday, petering out then and fine weather developing by Sunday. It happened just that way. This week we're expecting rain around Wednesday/Thursday almost everywhere - except for Marlborough!
Fresh FM in Nelson will soon feature predictweather.com's forecasts hourly throughout the day as part of their normal weather reporting. Apart from the Tuesday morning slots on 95bFM, Fresh FM will be NZ's first regional station to embrace moon-forecasting in a regular bulletin. This is indeed a foot in the door. We'll keep you posted.
This bulletin is still applicable. Next best fishing in April according to the moon will be 23rd-25th. On the 23rd the New Moon occurs having crossed the equator two days before. New Moon always brings excellent fishing prospects, and the crossing-equator factor speeds up dormant weather systems that have become slow-moving. 13th-18th will be average to good. But don't bother fishing at all on 11th/12th and 19th/20th.
For Whakapapa a good snow year. Light falls look possible around the middle and definitely end of May, the end of first week in June and end of June; good around mid July; end of August; really good in September and good falls ending mid October.
www.globalwarming.org
See why President Bush, if not good for anything else, at least has his
head screwed on and is getting good scientific advice about the
ridiculousness of the Kyoto Agreement.
Hi Ken
I spent Easter in New Plymouth (very windy) and Horowhenua (they had some
rain but want more). I also had a very pleasant star-lit night for Easter
Sat/SunÝ at Levin (as forecast). Last Sunday must have been about as far
away from a full moon as an easter moon can get. The Full moon was on Sun
8,Ý the Saturday following (=Passover) was on the 14thÝ so we had a
miserable waning quarter moon for Easter. It feels as though we were
diddled. Looks like SOSE's rain clouds went as far south as Levin to
Castlepoint, but no further south. Not sure where the people in Marlboro
got the idea that it would rain long and hard.Ý I said the forecasts for
them (when I was talking to media on Tuesday) was for 10-20mm on the flat
and maybe up to 50mm for the hills, but that it'll all clear Saturday
morning. Well I was wrong about the amounts, but that's what it looked
like at the time. No point in trying to say anything different. Chaos
triumpant! Anyway, the feature we are looking at this weekend doesn't look
(at this stage) as though it has much rain either, but I'm willing to be
pleasantly surprised.
Bob M.
(Bob, thanks for writing. I have to say I wasn't diddled as I felt I had
forecasted it correctly. The equatorial crossing was on the day before the
Full moon, a double whammer, which began things. The southern declination
on the 14th ended things. No mystery, and certainly no chaos. Those in
Marlborough got the 50mm-for-Saturday rain idea from you in the print
media and from Augy on Friday night, who just said 50mm will fall on
Marlborough. Nothing about being only on the hills. I have it on video, as
I record everything he says, just in case I need to check it as in a
situation such as this. Don't want to rub it in, but you were BOTH pretty
disastrously wrong on amounts, on rain at all, and on rain supposed to
fall all over the South Island. Not to mention supposed devastation for
the north. On the other hand, anyone following my bulletins would have
gotten a more accurate version of events. I knew Sose would be a fizzer,
from the position and timing of the moon's southern declination. I'd say
from that that your "chaos" seems to mainly apply to the MetService method
and not to the lunar method. Oh, and this weekend? I have rain in many
places Wed to Friday, but yes, clearing by Saturday - K).
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