Well, a bit of coastal rain fell on the night of the 23rd. I notice that the metservice also forecast a lot on the 24th/25th. However it only turned out to be around 10mm. But if you have the Weather Almanac 2001, look for April 24th-27th and you'll see the big low that's sitting to the west of the South Island right now that I thought by now would be doing the business. I still think it'll bring some good rain around end April/beginning of May. I don't go along at all with the notion expressed by one climate agency that Marlborough'll get no rain till next spring!
April always brings Full Moons that cross the equator heading south and New Moons that cross the equator heading north. Perigee this April is at the midpoint between the northern declination and the equator, heading south. Perigees creep forward 1/8 of the declination cycle each year. So this April it's a perigeal FM nearly crossing the equator. Next April 2002 the perigee FM will be exactly crossing the equator. Crossing the vicinity of the equator always brings turbulence. That takes care of the first week! Full Moon to 3rd Q, traditionally the worst weather time of the phase cycle, takes care of the second week! The New Moon crossing the equator heading north brings the potential for lows developing again in the 4th week, so I suppose only the 3rd week in April, 14th-21st, has offered any reliable peace. Granted there have been regions still without rain - but to be sure, those rained on have seen some at the above times.
We all know of those wonderfully rural souls who say "hmm..a northwesterly
- rain is coming!" How do they do that? Simple. You can, too. Turn around
and feel what wind is blowing on your back. That tells you the direction
it's coming from.
The GOOD winds to have are from the E, SE, S, W and SW.
The BAD ones are from N, NE, and NW. (Just reverse these for the northern
hemisphere)
Why? It's all to do with where you are standing with respect
to the wind directions in an anticyclonic or cyclonic pattern.
>From N means fine weather going or bad weather approaching.
>From NE means fine weather going or bad weather overhead.
>From E means rain is passing north of you and fine weather is south, which
means it's calm where you are.
>From S, SW or SE means fine weather coming or rain leaving.
>From W means better weather is to the north and rain is probably to the
south. Where you are is temporarily okay.
>From NW means better weather is further north or rain is approaching.
Rule - 'N' = Not good.
Was the Crash of Ansett 703 due to Natural Causes?
Date: 9th June, 1995.
Event: Ansett 703 crash in Palmerston North. Four fatalities. Pilot Garry
Southeran subsequently charged with quadruple manslaughter..
It was when I read the statement by pilot Mr Southeran that he observed
the altimeter to suddenly drop 1000ft even as he looked at it, that
reminded me that I had heard this phenomenon reported before. There is a
time in the day and month when air density, or atmosphere in a locality,
can suddenly and without warning get thinner. These periods are
potentially very dangerous for aircraft that rely on a mass of air for
their propellers to pull on, for in such a tunnel hole of air, propellers
fail to create forward thrust. The result is that the plane is in danger
of falling out of the sky.
The atmosphere over a particular location, just like the water coming in
and out of a harbour, is subject to a daily tide. The air is equivalent to
virtually a sea of equivalent mass to an ocean 33 feet deep, running
around above our heads. Such a 'sea' is tidal.
So far I have found that light-plane propeller-driven crashes occur just
before a combined Full or New Moon + a perigee in a time-of-month sense,
and at particular times of the day according to the tide of the
atmosphere. These times are moonset, moonrise, IC position (moon directly
beneath earth) and MH position (moon directly overhead). NoÝ light-plane
propeller-driven crashes I have looked at fall outside of these times.
Granted I have not studied them all, but it would be even stranger if the
only cases I have been able to collect data on were exceptions to a rule.
In the case of Ansett 703, the day was very significant - 3 days before
Full Moon + perigee, the perigee being 1995's biggest (moon was closest to
earth for that whole year) which would have exacerbated the atmospheric
tide effect enormously. The time of the day was important too, being
0900hrs, amazingly being the exact point that the Moon hit the IC
position, or time of the lowest atmospheric tide, over Palmerston North.
I see no reason why vacuum pockets of air would not develop as a local
atmosphere rushes towards or away from, a rising or setting moon. Consider
rocks in a stream or inlet. As the tide rushes in, the water pushing past
the rocks creates downstream vacuum pockets behind the rocks it is the
same with the air. As the hills are often in the way, pockets in the
density of air currents on either side of these hills would deepen over
the space of an hour until the moon event was over and an equilibrium was
once again restored. Most reported sudden drops in altitude occur over
hill country. The effect is grander in scale than just the rush of water
into a bay. As our giant moon dips below the horizon, it is constantly
affecting a great body of air over a huge area.
Then why aren't all planes in danger? Perhaps they are, but not all cars
come to grief in the same pothole, especially if that pothole is only
momentary and highly transient.
Consider some other recent crashes.
In October 12th 1997 singer John Denver crashed, 3 days before a combined
Full Moon+perigee, at 1728hrs. Moonrise at that locality on that day was
1750hrs.
On July 16th 1999 it was John Kennedy who succumbed, 3 days after New Moon
+perigee (one day difference between), at 2141hrs. Moonset that day was
2158hrs.
On Feb 2nd, 1959, singer Buddy Holly died 2 days after the perigee.
The helicopter crash on the Auckland Southern motorway on Jan 26th 2001
occurred 2 days before New Moon, at 1650hrs - the exact time of the moon's
IC.
May 21st 1996 saw the crash of James Beggs in his Piper Cherokee in the
Ureweras, 3 days after New Moon and at 1530hrs - the exact time of the
moon's MH position.
Veteran NZ flyer Bryan Knight was killed in Brisbane on Nov 24th 2000, the
day before New Moon. He crashed at 1600hrs. Moonset was exactly 1647hrs.
And on June 9th 1995, Ansett 703 crashed, 3 days before combined Full Moon
+ giant perigee occurring on the same day. Time: 0900hrs, the exact time
of the moon's IC position that day.
In all of these cases no mechanical fault has been found and the episodes
were just written off as either mysteries or 'pilot error'. It was even
put forward that John Denver must have swallowed too much of his own CO2,
there being no other obvious explanation.
I believe a lunar correlation investigation into all recorded air
accidents in this country is overdue but given the state of the politics
of science I cannot see it looked at unless theories about climate change.
Until such time as this work is carried out, it would be a sad day for the
NZ justice system if one man was held to blame for the actions of the
moon. Even now, at least to my mind, reasonable doubt enters the situation.
The new evening star is Jupiter, seen in the west just after sunset. This will be visible there over the next 28 days.
Rain is coming at last to parched South island areas.
Excellent - May 6th - 9th: and 22nd-24th.
Good - 1st, 7th, 15th, 16th, 30th.
Average: 2nd, 10th, 13th, 14th, 17th, 18th, 21st, 25th, 28th, 29th, 31st.
Bad: 3rd, 4th, 5th, 11th, 12th, 19th, 20th, 26th, 27th.
For Whakapapa a good snow year. Light falls look possible around the middle and definitely end of May, the end of first week in June and end of June; good around mid July; end of August; really good in September and good falls ending mid October.
Hi Ken,
I have been involved in weather forecasting for over 30 years, 26 with the
Met Service and for the last 6 or so with Weather Workshop, I have to
admit there is something else out there that does have an influence on our
atmosphere. Perhaps the moon is responsible to some extent. Recently, the
most up-to-date computer models forecast an end to the drought for
Wellington and parts of Marlborough, but it didn't happen. It just would
not rain. Sometimes, I stare out of the window and just wonder. It is so
frustrating with all this so called techno stuff that we just can't get
right as often as we would wish. I will give your book a read and am off
to buy a copy now. I would like to keep touch.
Steve
Upper Hutt
(Satellite technology is surely a complete waste of time when it comes to
long range forecasting. Plus, the computer models contradict each other.
Stonehenge has the answers, but that is the last place science is likely
to look for them. TV reporters from some stations were sent out to cover
effects of Cyclone Sose but by the time they got to their designated watch
areas Sose had been downgraded almost to zero. Did they disband the story?
Hardly. LIBRARY FOOTAGE of previous floods were shown..-K)
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