On Wednesday the May perigee(moon closest to earth) occurs, bringing quite a deep low pressure system to drop its load around the country, having sat off the west coast of the South Island since 24th April, biding its time. It is not a close perigee as perigees go, being about the second least damaging for the year. But perigees are never to be taken lightly. At its very edge, a devastating storm causing damages into the millions hit the Gold Coast on the 26th just after the met office cancelled a storm warning. Oops.
Despite the heavy rain warning posted for the north and south, I think most areas will clear in the second half of this week, with quite big rains coming again next Monday, 7th, just before Full Moon.
The big boss of the IPCC himself is speaking on Wed evening in Auckland,
brought here by this government who are trying to bring in a carbon tax as
one of their election bribes to satisfy the Greenies. So come along and
ask those sticky questions about global warming, like..er..where's the
hard evidence..?
The programme is:
5.45 Opening and Issues for the Auckland Economy (Councillor Patricia
Thorpe)
6.00 Current Situation in NZ and Future Options (Dr Rick Pridmore, Deputy
Chief Executive, NIWA)
6.30 Climate Change - Risks and Opportunities (Dr Bob Watson, World bank,
Chairman IPCC)
7.30 Discussion
Where? Auckland Regional Council Chambers, Vodafone House, Pitt St.
Time: 5.45pm. Wed, 2 May.
Stuart Rae, retired Senior Hydrologist for Marlborough, two days ago sent
me this about what SHOULD have been happening over those very dry skies!
"The northerly cloud-mass associated with a stationary depression off
Tasmania has at last started to move across the Tasman, and is finally
recognised in some Met maps as an associated front.
Early today there were
quite definite areas of altocumulus lenticular across the northern
horison, underneath developing variations of cirrus and cirrostratus. More
patchy lenticular altocumulus have been evident in and above the valley
all day, and it's now forming in the west, east, and south as well. Also a
bank of low darker cloud is forming behind the northern ranges.Ý
However,
weather systems that were previously stationary to the east of the
"blocking high", across the Pacific to South America, now
appear to be on the move again, like a stalled line of traffic that begins
to move off again, starting with the front car.Ý
Perigee occurs on
Wednesday May 2nd, which is not long after the northern lunar declination. However, from the current local signs, I think it will start to rain here
well before that.Ý
The Met Office have finally cracked under pressure, and
are now forecasting rain.Ý Just heard the bloke on the local radio station
saying it was going to rain on Monday. And as I look out the window again
now, I see extensive areas of lenticular altocumulus forming up the
valley, and right down to the coast in the east. The wind, is currently
from the north to northwest, and has picked up fairly steadily all day".
(thanks Stuart)
So despite everyone expecting it any day, the perverse rain just will not
fall. All any of us can predict, from a year in my case to that morning by
others, is the potential for it to do so. One can liken it to planting a
seed - the seed can be right, the ground, the watering, the timing. But the
seed may not come up - until later! It was still worth planting the seed
though..
Excellent - May 6th - 9th: and 22nd-24th.
Good - 1st, 7th, 15th, 16th, 30th.
Average: 2nd, 10th, 13th, 14th, 17th, 18th, 21st, 25th, 28th, 29th, 31st.
Bad: 3rd, 4th, 5th, 11th, 12th, 19th, 20th, 26th, 27th.
For Whakapapa a good snow year. Light falls look possible around the
middle and definitely end of May, the end of first week in June and end of
June; good around mid July; end of August; really good in September and
good falls ending mid October.
The Ski Areas Association (SAANZ) is meeting in Christchurch next week and
I have been asked to attend this meeting to talk about my predictions for
the 2001 season.Ý SAANZ is a national body representing the 14 commercial
ski areas throughout New Zealand.Ý Two are situated in the North Island on
Mt Ruapehu and 12 are situated in the South Island from the Nelson Lakes
to Queenstown.Ý There are also 11 club areas and 12 Heli ski operators.
Hi Ken
Your latest ezine raises some intriguing possibilities. From your lunar
records, can you say what was happening at 0909 hours on July 3, 1963 over
the Kaimai Ranges (specifically Mt Ngatamahinerua). That's when a
National Airways DC3 crashed with the loss of 3 crew and 20 passengers.
The "probable" cause was put down to severe downdrafts in the lee of the
ranges.Ý However, a wind shear such as you suggest may have occurred with
Captain Sotheran's aircraft would give the same result.
Walt
(Thames)
(3 July 1963 was 3 days before the Full Moon. 0900hrs was one hour before
IC at that spot on that day, meaning moon directly beneath the earth,
meaning air-tide fully out. I'd say it was significant, as the Full Moon
brings king tides, in sea and air. The fact that the event occurred close
enough to a kingtide fully out, indicates to me the potential for a
depleted atmosphere where the plane was, so perhaps it points to a
possible atmospheric cause also.-K)
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