Hi to those who have recently joined this ezine. We try to bring regular bulletins of weather to come and provide a forum for topical comment on climate and environment. Whereas the official forecasters tell us about weather yesterday, today and tomorrow; this space tries to look a little further ahead. I do not have all the answers, nor do I claim 100% accuracy, but then, neither does the metservice.
On Friday afternoon at 3.30pm the moon reached its southernmost point for this month with respect to NZ, called the southern declination. By Monday (today) it is on its northward climb again. At this time the moon starts pulling air up from the south, which in exposed areas translate into cold southerlies. Some early snow around Cardrona and the Remarkables is likely, and on high ground further north. The southern declination also typically causes weather to improve for a couple of days.
The reason this ezine is a little late is because I was flown to
Christchurch last week to talk to the Ski Areas Association (SAANZ) to
tell them about the coming season. I presented them with the moon theory
of weather and it stimulated good discussion. Good snowfall is more the
function of a single weather event than an averaged expectancy looked at
over say, a 30-year average. As such, light falls look possible around the
middle of May, which is the Last lunar Quarter and heavier falls on the
perigee at the end of May. I'm picking an early season and a good one,
lasting till mid October.
(SAANZ is a national body representing the 14 commercial ski areas
throughout New Zealand.Ý Two are situated in the North Island on Mt
Ruapehu and 12 are situated in the South Island from the Nelson Lakes to
Queenstown.Ý There are also 11 club areas and 12 Heli ski operators).
The moon increases its north-to-south declination swing over 18.613 years,
so that at the shallow end, the El Nino years, the years of the minimum
maximum declination (1996-9), the earth's atmosphere is held more between
the Tropics thus leaving the polar ends of the earth more exposed, thus
giving rise to extreme winters and summers at the top and bottom of the
earth.
Down here in NZ that means South Island winters and summers are worse that
North Island ones and the difference between northern and southern
skifield seasons is more marked. As the declination range creeps up,
meaning that the moon's monthly swing reaches further north and so two
weeks later further south, the difference in weather between the
northern-to-southern ski-fields evens itself out. This will be seen over
the next 5 or 6 years. Then the maximum declination clicks in for 3 or 4
years or so and it all reverses.
Where are we now in that cycle? About mid-way. Our southern ski-fields
will probably see slightly longer seasons than the northern fields for the
next couple of years.
On Wednesday the 2nd May the perigee (moon closest to earth) occurred, bringing quite a deep low pressure system to drop its load. In Auckland this occurred around 4.30pm, just as the moon started to move away again (perigee was at 4pm). There was an incredibly heavy rainfall lasting around an hour, causing flooding and traffic mayhem in many districts. The next perigee will occur on the 27th May, around 7am. Within a day either side of the 27th the whole country will see widespread rain, especially heavy in Northland and the central North Island.
Most areas will cloud over and see rain in the later half of this week, but the upper half of the North Island should see a dry weekend.
The big boss of the IPCC himself spoke in Auckland, brought here by our
government who are trying to bring in a carbon tax as one of their
pre-election policy promises to satisfy the greenies. People don't realize
that fuel prices will go through the roof if that measure eventuates,
because industries will have to apply for permits to function, and all the
monitoring and licensing fees will be passed onto the consumer.
Predictably, the IPCC man's address was full of gloom and doom for us all.
At first we were told that the sea-levels are going up at the rate of 10cm
per century, which is actually less than 4.5 inches, but that in the next
century they will go up between 10cm and a METRE! That's one big range of
speculation. But when I challenged what facts were known, he agreed it was
based purely on computer extrapolation.
According to Dave Dillon, president of Federated farmers, and reported on the National Programme radio news channel on Sunday morning, the drought is now over in the parched areas. But today the same news channel reversed itself, saying the drought is not over. Although many areas obviously need more, the recent drizzle (Marlborough has had 14mm) has enabled some greening up to reoccur. Well, NIWA said the drought would continue till next spring. But I think it's over. Let's wait and see.
Excellent - May 22nd-24th.
Good - 15th, 16th, 30th.
Average: 13th, 14th, 17th, 18th, 21st, 25th, 28th, 29th, 31st.
Bad: 19th, 20th, 26th, 27th.
Hi Ken
My wife and I are about to spend 5 months pedaling bikes across the USA.
We are going with the knowledge gained from your book, Predicting Weather
By The Moon.Ý As we will be camping we will be outside and will definitely
notice every bit of weather we get, noting the weather in our diary and
watching how it changes with the three cycles with great interest. I have
added moon cycles to our itinerary to help.Ý
Regards
John G.Ý
(Looks like you could be in for a damp start. The 27th May perigee is the
2nd closest for the year. It's also associated with a New Moon. Wet
nights! The other perigee to give trouble could be the one on Oct 13th -
5th closest for 2001- K)
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