Hi to those who have recently joined this ezine. We try to bring regular bulletins of weather to come and provide a forum for topical comment on climate and environment. Whereas the official forecasters tell us about weather yesterday, today and tomorrow; this space tries to look a little further ahead. I do not have all the answers, nor do I claim 100% accuracy, but then, neither does the metservice.
Well, last week we said this week would see 'cold southerlies, some early snow around Cardrona and the Remarkables and on high ground further north'. We got it alright! The southern declination is guaranteed to bring cold weather. The southern declination also typically causes weather to improve for a couple of days, which is what many districts experienced over the weekend. There were odd showers, yes, but mainly blue skies.
Light falls came around the middle of May which was the Last lunar Quarter and heavier falls are still expected on the perigee at the end of May. >From this Thursday until Sunday a lull is likely over most ski areas. Then, around 28th, further snowfalls are a possibility in most districts. I'm still picking an early season and a good one, lasting till mid October.
The next perigee will occur on the 27th May, around 7am. Within a day either side of the 27th the whole country will probably see widespread rain or snow, especially heavy in Northland and the central North Island. Winds are likely to be heavier on the 28th in the North Island and on the 29th in the South Island.
The weather largely clears again tomorrow except in eastern areas, as an anticyclone approaches from the west, due to cover the country from 24th-27th. After 27th it passes to the northeast, replaced by fronts sweeping from the southwest.
I have added an article on this sorry chapter of NZ justice to my website. It is clear to my mind that the pilot is innocent of the charge of manslaughter, and was in the wrong place at the wrong time. Other pilots are due to give evidence that their altimeters once suddenly dropped also. I believe that the moon was responsible for vicious wind changes around the hour of the crash, causing severe localized downdrafts in the Tararua foothills. I have the figures from the metservice to back this up. I am trying to get my findings published by a magazine, but so far am hitting the usual brick wall. The latest rejection was from the Listener. It seems anything that has 'moon' on it causes editors to run the other way!
Excellent - 24th.
Good -30th.
Average: 25th, 28th, 29th, 31st.
Bad: 26th, 27th.
I read your article (and the later companion piece on the ozone hole)
with great interest. There are not many voices on the other side of the
debate.Ý I am still seeking information, and have no developed opinion as
yet, but a stirring suspicion that the GW issue is as overhyped as others,
more in my area of expertise, are known to be.
I have a question. You mention the analogy of ice floating in a glass.
Have you, or has anyone whose data you have seen, calculated the volume of
the Antarctic land ice? Clearly, if it were a large enough volume, it
could have a substantial effect -- but I do not know at all what that
volume is.
Thanks, and keep up the good work.
D. Keith Howington, CEOÝÝ
( 2.8% of all the earth's surface is polar. So 1.4% is southern polar.
Therefore about 0.7% is land ice. Oceans are between 70-75% of the
planet's surface. So, assuming the land ice was as deep as the world's
seas, which it isn't, and all the land ice slid into the sea,
although there's no reason why it should(and according to science@NASA.com
Antartcica ice has been getting thicker!) we have 0.7% in say 73%, in
other words a factor of 1 in 2000. I would say, taking into account the
difference in average depth, we were looking at 1 in 5000. So in a cubic
mile you're maybe going to get an extra cubic foot added. In other words,
in an area the size of Lake Rotoiti you have an extra bucket of water
dropped in. When you consider that more than that gets evaporated away
each day or added as rain or mist, frosts and dew running into it from
surrounding land, I think we can all sleep easy. So how many Lake Rotoitis
would make up an ocean and how many extra buckets of water would we be
looking at? Even if it was a few thousand it would make hardly any
difference.-K)
Contact
Editor: Ken Ring
Phone: land. 09-817-7625, fax. 09-817-2203, mobile 021 970-696
Postal: P.O.Box 60197 Titirangi, Auckland 7, New Zealand.
E-mail: ken@weatherman.co.nz
Internet: http://www.predictweather.com
Subscribe: Send a blank email to weather-subscribe@topica.com.
Contributions: The editor reserves the right to include or exclude contributions
submitted. Comments or questions for Q's and A's should be addressed to
ken@weatherman.co.nz
Disclaimer: The contents of this document are the views and opinions of the editor and/or associates only, and carry no guarantees as to accuracy. No responsibility will be undertaken by the editor or webmaster for actions or outcomes on the part of readers as a result of information contained herein. Opinions expressed by contributors and reprinted are likewise their own and may or may not reflect the views of the editor or the webmaster.
Copyright: This e-zine is subject to international copyright laws but may be freely distributed to all interested parties; except for purposes of unauthorized
commercial gain. All Rights Reserved (c) Ken Ring 2000 - 2001.