Hi to those who have recently joined this ezine. We try to bring regular bulletins of weather to come and provide a forum for topical comment on climate and environment. Whereas the official forecasters tell us about weather yesterday, today and tomorrow; this space tries to look a little further ahead. I do not have all the answers, nor do I claim 100% accuracy, but then, neither does the metservice.
For those who don't listen to 95bFM on Tuesdays, and so don't catch this
author's alternative weather report, here it is in summary.
Red sunrise this morning over Auckland was one indicator of showers on the
way, possibly within 36 hours. The Full Moon occurs tomorrow, Wednesday.
Fellow lunar watchers Bernard Boyd (UK) and Cory vanPelt (USA) remind that
moon phase change generally brings weather change, whatever the locality
on the globe. Accordingly one can safely expect showers over much of NZ in
the next week. Today was a northeasterly, a further indication of coming
precipitation. Thursday of next week sees the phase change again, Last
Quarter, and the weather should become relatively clear again. Much
meteorology was done this way pre-1850.
The moon is still coming southwards and will 'turn the corner' on Friday
at midnight. This should bring more snow for the weekend to skifields. The
Full Moon and southern declination is a recipe for inclement weather. The
next reliable high isn't likely till after the Last Quarter next Thursday.
Mostly rain follows the Full Moon anyway, and the wettest time of the
month on average is always in the interval from Full Moon to Last Quarter.
Fronts are due to pass across the south of the country during and after
the southern declination, around and after the weekend, causing swells a
few days later on West Coast beaches.
Around Thursday or Friday we should see a report of earthquake activity in the northern hemisphere. Full Moon in southern declination is a potential earthquake combination.
Coming northerlies are good for snowfalls. First you get southerlies which cool everything down, then any warmer wind from the north makes the ice expand into snowflakes, which is why snow appears on a rising temperature. Before that it can be just hail and sleet. This weekend should see more snow on Whakapapa, then Turoa a day or two later. For cam pictures of the skifields at any time see www.snow.co.nz
We said the weather would largely clear for Queens Birthday weekend and it was, as a high approached from the west. But for the previous weekend I had predicted dry weather too. Well, Saturday started off okay, but a sudden wetting caught me by surprise on Sunday. It was the day of the perigee so I suppose one shouldn't be too surprised. But I do apologise for getting that wrong.
Fishing news for first half of June
6th- 8th: excellent
9th: bad
10th: excellent
11th: bad
12th: average
13th: average
14th: good
Hi Ken
I'm Freddy, I am a third year Journalism student at the Waikato
Polytechnic. Can you explain what has caused this sudden change to cold
weather?
(When declination coincides with phase such that southerlies coincide with
clearer skies, cold weather results. Just that combination is a feature of
present conditions. Also, it is winter and only two weeks till the
midwinter shortest day, so cooler weather is not so unexpected. Also, many
areas in NZ (like Wairarapa, Marlborough, Canterbury and N. Otago) have
experienced drought conditions over the last summer. The change in season
has therefore been noticed more and it appears, by contrast, to be cooler
than usual. But actually May was warmer than usual overall, especially in
the North Island, despite the cold temperatures towards the end.)
Is this cold weather going to continue?
(Yes, until end of September).
Is our climate changing? Is it safe to say that our winters are getting
colder and our summers warmer?
(No, the reverse. Our winters are generally getting milder and summers
cooler, and will continue doing so up till 2005.-K)
Hi Ken
I'm currently minoring in meteorology at Lincoln University while doing
applied computing . I think that this moon notion makes sense, and
hopefully in my next semester this will provide some good debate to hurl
around in class. I can't make any educated comments on this moon-method as
I don't know enough. But I like the concept's simplicity. I came across an
article that suggested that the incidence of cosmic rays striking the
earth increased lower level cloud cover. The premise of the paper is based
on the solar cycle. When the sun is at maximum the cosmic rays are at
minimum as the heliosphere deflects the cosmic rays. The idea was that the
cosmic rays ionized molecules in the lower atmosphere which then acted as
condensation nuclei to form clouds. So I guess I'm wondering if the cosmic
ray incidence is affected over a moon's cycle.
Alex
(Perhaps. Most cloud/rain is to my mind caused by the moon going over the
horizon, taking with it atmosphere, so decreasing the density of the air
above the horizon (where we happen to be) allowing the cold of space to
enter more easily and condense air so causing clouds, which then overload
causing rain. There is an electrical component - Richard Holle of the USA
is the expert in this - and indeed this is tied to the lunar cycle. It is
more relevant when the moon crosses the equator, cutting the earth's
magnetic field lines, also from Full Moon to 3rd Q, when electrically
charged particles from the sun are more dragged across the earth to the
moon, as it advances toward the sun. The expression "cosmic rays" is a bit
non-specific, referring to all ionizing radiation that hits us from
space.-K).
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