Hi to those who have recently joined this ezine, where you will find regular bulletins of weather to come and a forum for topical comment on climate and environment. At the risk of getting up some people's meteorological noses, this author believes the weather is created by the moon. The official forecasters tell us accurately about weather yesterday, today and tomorrow; but this space tries to look a little further ahead. I do not have all the answers, nor do I claim 100% accuracy, but then, neither does the metservice.
95bFM report (Tuesdays)
Said last week: Thursday, cloudy and Friday showers, missing Auckland.
Weekend mainly clear, shower activity next week. A low forming to the
north of the country which hasn't reached the metservice's maps yet. Big
earthquakes predicted around the weekend.
What happened: All of the above. We're still getting showers, which is
what you expect around or just after a New Moon. The mentioned low had
reached the maps by last Friday.
A high pressure zone has been sitting off the west coast all week and will at last start moving to pass over NZ around the weekend or Monday. From New Moon to 1st Quarter is always the most settled time of any month. The weekend should see widespread scattered showers clearing slowly by Sunday and staying mostly dry until Wednesday.
Update on the awesome threesome
No doubt about it, the moon (or SOMETHING) delivered. From a 5+ shake in
Halmahera in Indonesia and many shakes in Japan to the tropical cyclone
between Africa and Madagascar. On New Moon in Wisconsin the town of Siren
was completely flattened by a massive tornado. At the very moment of
moonrise, local time, the 7.9 earthquake occurred in Peru, followed by 5+
shakes there for two days afterward. An eruption occurred, still puffing
threateningly, in Manila. Even down in little old Kaikoura a shake was
felt.
Why? On Thursday 21st was the New Moon, followed by the northern
declination on Friday and then the perigee, the 8th closest for the year,
on Saturday. One might say earthquakes occur somewhere every day, so
what's the moon got to do with it? Not true. Each day that the moon is not
in a potential strike point there are maybe two or three significantly
large earthquakes to show up on the geo-monitoring maps. But at times such
as late last week the number can jump to around 15 on or about the danger
time. In previous ezines I have posted the University of Edinburgh
location indicator sites that I use, so anyone can verify this. If anyone
wants it again, please let me know.
The moon is now moving away and all extreme weather events around the world are consequently dying down. On Sunday there was an almighty eruption in Manila. It's all over until the next New moon /declination/perigee positioning which will be July 21st, then August 19th and possibly September 18th.
>From NZ Herald, 23rd February 2001."The government has approved a
multimillion dollar upgrade of the country's surveillance system for
earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and other geological hazards. The
Earthquake Commission will contribute $5 million a year for at least 10
years to the Institute of geological and Nuclear Sciences for its GeoNet
project"...
(If this report is true then what a waste of our taxes. Given access to
the right resources it can be calculated exactly where and when quakes
will hit this or any country. I'd do it for half the amount!)
There have been many studies showing earthquakes are caused by the moon. Seismic instruments left on the moon by the first Apollo 11 mission went on to record moonquakes whenever the earth came close. Logically it must also work the other way. 23 years ago Kozyrev, a Russian astrophysicist of the Pulkovo Observatory in Leningrad, claimed all earthquakes could be forecast by observing the surface of the moon. His theory that earth and moon are so intertwined gravitationally that their respective tectonic processes are in synch remained in relative obscurity, even though he found evidence to support his claim using NASA figures. Earth and Moon events seem to be mutually registered, though with a time lag of up to three days. Luminous spots and glows rather than moonquakes tend to cluster on specific points on the moon's surface that Kozyrev claimed were earth-locator-indicators. I cannot find any reference to him on the internet - has anyone heard of him? Moonspots are neither new nor rare. Herschel saw 150 of them on the Full Moon of 22nd December 1790.
On TV's Sunday night 60 minutes the question was put to the world's "top climatological scientist" : what proof exists that human activity is responsible for the warming, to which all she said was "I'm just absolutely sure." Then they panned to last year's York (England) floods as an indication of what happens when the oceans rise up. What porridge. The perigee of the moon occurred on that October 26th, which was when the rains came followed by floods within a matter of days. The epicenter of that perigee was near Britain. The only sensible voice on the 60 Minutes lineup was that of Fred Singer, leading USA anti GW campaigner, who pointed out that weather, rather than human behaviour, is usually responsible for floods.
Wind's are dying down following the perigee last Saturday. The Campbell Island rat extermination programme has wisely waited until now.
The snow is going to great for the school holidays, part of a nice cold
winter. Christchurch and Canterbury should get snow later this week. In
the north, here is the likely coolness coming up for the remaining winter
months.
July: In Whangarei and Auckland only 19th and 20th are likely to see
minimum temperatures above 10.
August: Only 11th-14th have possible minimums above 10 in Whangarei, and
11th-24th in Auckland.
September: Only the third week seems to get to above 10 in the north, and
minimums are above 10 from the 10th onwards in Auckland.
October: Only the last week will see below 10 minimums.
Letters to Herald unpublished
Anything with my name on it seems to end up on the editing floor. Here's
the latest batch.
22/6/01
Blowing hot and cold?
Dear Editor
On 13th June (front page), climate experts said the rest of the winter will
be much warmer than normal, the latest climate outlook apparently
predicting above-average temperatures. But on the 21st (again front page)
a metservice spolesperson stated that the winter is only just beginning,
and that the really coldest weather is 6 weeks away. A most interesting
turnabout, leaving one wondering if they really know or just want a bob
each way. Perhaps the tax dollar should be going to something a bit more
certain.
Ken Ring
Titirangi
24/6/01
Dear Ed
This paper is to be congratulated for running the article "Recovering
Earth" in Saturday's issue. The growing dissenting voices pointing out the
fallacies of doom and gloom arguments for global warming, ozone-depletion,
poles melting, oceans rising and methane dangers are causing scientists to
take more and more desperate stands, like the recent idiotic call to move
the earth into a different orbit using comets.
The USA is currently experiencing a locust spread, and it is just a matter
of time before some NZ researcher short of funds smells the potential to
earn some quick tax dollars. After all, when you think about it, we
haven't had a locust scare for some years now. But if locusts showed up
tomorrow, would we be prepared?
Surely we need a fact-finding Commission
of Inquiry, some environmental expert's Locust-Impact Report and systemic
early warning locust-locator stations to be set up right now, just in
case. Teams of locust specialists with special equipment need to be
quickly trained under the guidance of international experts, and
recruitment and emergency procedures involving an enlarged armed services will be required. Given
the proven devastation of locusts worldwide, can we as an agricultural
economy afford to not be prepared? We'll also need victim support funds
for trauma victims who find locusts in their pies and a drafting of new
ACC legislation to cover RSI's from squashing them.
So we'll be needing to
pay for research teams, consultants, reports, satellite locust-migration
updates, and even hui, to sort out the question of locust ownership.
Or we
could all grow up and recognise how duped and ripped off we are becoming by
today's scaremongerers who hide behind environmental science, and be the
first country to remind the world of the moral of the Emperor's Clothes.
Ken Ring
Titirangi
28th: good
29th : average
30th : average
1st : bad
2nd : bad
3rd : bad
4th: excellent
5th : excellent
Atmospheric tides
http://www.auf.asn.au/meteorology/section1a.html#atmospheric_tides
Cam pictures of the skifields
www.snow.co.nz
Global warming website
www.globalwarming.org
Changes to polar ice caps
http://polar.jpl.nasa.gov/
One of NASA's sites
http://www.sepp.org/
Hi Ken
What have we in store for us here in Britain?Ý At present, it's hot, hot,
hot...Yesterday (Midsummer's Day) had us sweating in the low Eighties (F).
Today, the first day of Wimbledon, it's even hotter.Ý But thunderstorms
are forecast for the second half of this week and it'll get cooler.Ý It
has got to rain.Ý It always does to ruin parts of the Wimbledon fortnight.
John
Kent(UK)
(Hot, yes, because of the perigee. Hottest when the moon is out of the sky
- afternoons around the last Q moon period last week. When the moon goes
below the horizon it takes the atmosphere with it, making for less dense
air above the horizon, allowing in more of the heat of the sun or the cold
of space, as the case may be. As to what's in store, I would say rain
around London this Saturday and next Wednesday -K)
Hi Ken,
As a boatie, I have for many years noticed that the moon seemed to have
some effect on the type of weather we would have. The worst times seemed
to be with the spring tides. I always thought that I must be nuts, or it
was just coincidence that these major weather patterns happened during
that time of the tidal movement.
Keep up the good work.
Paul
Ken -
I am a keen weather observer myself and have followed the weather closely
since the late sixties in both Australia and New Zealand. The TV program
showed today's page from one of your books which you drew up in February
2000, and the one published in the NZH today, many months later. Ken, what
I don't quite understand is why you are not using a real-time synoptic
chart to verify your forecasts? Those prediction charts in the paper don't
always depict the weather as it actually is at the time stated, and you
might find that by using maps like the ones on
http://www.clear.net.nz/netscape/weather/situation.htmlÝ (which are actual
situation charts), your accuracy-rate would go even higher.
Bill
Wellington.
(I used the Herald map on TV because it was something everyone would have
at home and would be able to relate to. But you are right, and I do use
old government maps for my Almanacs. I don't claim 100% accuracy because
whoever gathered the maps, sometimes 38 years ago and beyond, cannot be
relied on to get on the right side of midnight for the date-K)
Contact
Editor: Ken Ring
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Postal: P.O.Box 60197 Titirangi, Auckland 7, New Zealand.
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