Hi to those who have recently joined this ezine, where you will find regular bulletins of weather to come and a forum for topical and at times light-hearted comment on climate and environment. At the risk of getting up some people's meteorological noses, this author believes the weather is created by the moon. The official forecasters tell us accurately about weather yesterday, today and tomorrow; but this space tries to look a little further ahead. I do not have all the answers, nor do I claim 100% accuracy, but then, neither does the metservice.
95bFM report (Tuesdays)
Last Tuesday I said the weekend just gone should see widespread scattered
showers clearing slowly by Sunday and staying mostly dry until Wednesday.
This appears to still be the case. There are still a few showers around up
in the far north, left over from the weekend rain which was associated
with last Thursday's Full Moon. There is potential for more light falls
around Orewa and beyond up till this Thursday. Then for Auckland, mainly
dry weather is expected right till August 10th.Ý The only glitch is likely
to be around the 19th, at the end of next week, just before another
troublesome threesome of northern declination, New Moon and perigee.
Full or new moons plus north or south declinations bring great earthquakes. All extreme weather events around the world have been dying down since June 24th. The next New moon /declination/perigee positioning will be July 19th-21st. Therefore we can expect another earthquake around the magnitude of that in Peru in the weekend after this one coming.
"..the continued postponement of Global warming ..." (Augie, TV3 Tuesday)
Later this week high winds could worry the Far North and Kaikoura, but other areas will not be affected until next Thursday.
A warming spell is occurring in the north and will continue till the 11th,
after which more cold temperatures will return. The snow is going to be
fine for the school holidays, part of a nice cold winter. This is a good
time to go to Whakapapa for walks around Tongariro National Park, fun in
the snow and playing around in safety, as storms and foul weather that
threaten to close the mountain are not expected until the end of next
week.
In the north, here is the likely coolness coming up for the remaining
winter months.
July: In Whangarei and Auckland, the 19th and 20th are likely to see
minimum temperatures above 10.
August: Only 11th-14th have possible minimums above 10 in Whangarei, and
11th-24th in Auckland.
September: Only the third week seems to get to above 10 in the north, and
minimums are above 10 from the 10th onwards in Auckland.
October: Only the last week will see below 10 minimums.
On 13th June(front page of NZ Herald), climate experts said the rest of
the winter will be much WARMER than normal, the latest climate outlook
apparently predicting above-average temperatures. But on the 21st (again
front page) the metservice stated that the winter is only just beginning,
and that the really COLDEST weather is 6 weeks away.
Interesting turnabout.
Then, on July 4th we get another front page article headed "On
the road to WARMER days". However, the substance of the article was just
the opposite. .."Mr McDavitt said we're still on the downward track to the
COLDEST time of the year, but I DOUBT THAT IT WILL GET MUCH COLDER THAN
THIS.."
At the risk of appearing too negative, if anyone can tell me what the
metservice really thinks is going on, do tell.
10th: bad
11th : average
12th : average
13th : good
14th : good
15th : average
16th: average
17th : bad
Extra-terrestrial effects on the weather
Using computer analysis of weather statistics and additional weather data
recorded by satellites, we know more about the Moon's effect on the
weather.
At Full Moon we find the warmest daily temp, 0.20 degrees warmer
than New Moon, a neutron maximum, less interference with cosmic radiation
just before full Moon, up to 30% brighter twilight sky radiance,
atmosphere is more transparent, the thunderstorm max is 2 days after full
Moon, also a maximum in galactic cosmic radiation, and increased formation
of hurricanes and typhoons.
At 3rd Quarter there is increased ozone, a
bigger influx of meteoric dust, a minima in twilight sky radiance,
increase in ice nuclei, rain and increased plant growth.
The Moon in first
quarter is identical to third quarter.
At New Moon there is the formation
of hurricanes and typhoons, sunshine and a diminished neutron presence.
The moonshadow effect interferes with cosmic radiation and solar wind flux
from sun.
In 1962, Don Bradley, Max Woodbury and Glenn Brier broke the scientific
barrier of the Moon's influence on the weather with their landmark paper,
"Lunar synodical period and widespread precipitation."
Using rainfall data
recorded from 1900-1949, they found a significant tendency for the
heaviest 24-hour rainfalls to occur about 2-3 days after the full Moon and
new Moon. Rain was three times as likely to fall in the first and third
quarter of the Moon than at full or new Moon. The lunar effect on rainfall
is greater during quiet solar periods when the lunar effect accounts for
65% of the variance.
Appearing with Bradley's paper in the same issue of
Science and in the next two pages was a paper by Adderley and Bowen. They
had found the rainfall and lunar phase correlation in 1960 from the
rainfall data in New Zealand but had decided not to publish it sooner
since meteorologists did not believe it.
In 1997, John Shaffer, Randall Cerveny and Robert Balling, Jr. using 17
years of satellite temperature data, found that the poles show a
temperature range of .55 degrees C during a lunar month. This range of
temperature is 25 times greater than global temperatures as a whole. It
shows that there is a strong poleward transfer of heat near the full Moon
but the transfer weakens near the new Moon.
In 1995 Robert Balling had
also found an influence of the Moon's phase on daily global temperatures.
The warmest daily global temperatures occur eight days before the full
Moon. After full Moon the temperatures cooled.
Barber (1962) has proposed from his work measuring the systematic
fluctuation of twilight intensity with phases of the moon, that the lunar
atmospheric tide influences the optical scattering properties of the high
atmosphere. The twilight sky brightness shows periodicities of 14.75 and
29.5 days. From his optical measurements of the radiance of the twilight
sky he has concluded that the density of the light-scattering dust in the
upper air changes with the phases of the moon.
After the lunar cycle breakthrough in 1962, a number of papers came out
extending the concept of lunar cycles and the weather. One of the most
controversial proposals was brought forth by E. Keith Bigg, the influence
of the Moon on the Earth's geomagnetic field. He found a lower frequency
of magnetic disturbance at new Moon and a greater number of disturbances
during the first quarter than third quarter of the Moon's phase.
As more work was done on the Moon's effect on the magnetic field, it was
proposed that the Moon shielded the Earth from the solar wind at new Moon,
that Kp decreased four days before full Moon and increased four days after
the full Moon. The geometry of the Earth's magnetic tail and the Moon's
orbital velocity ensures a disturbance of the neutral sheet the day before
the full Moon.(1969 Fraser-Smith).
Lethbridge (1970) analyzed thunderstorm frequencies for the U.S. in
relation to the position of the Moon. Thunderstorms occurred more
frequently two days after the full Moon. Bowen proposed that meteoric dust
coming in from space varies with the lunar phase. Ice nuclei descend into
the troposphere and are carried by the winds and seed clouds, producing
rain.
The lunar precipitation mechanisms may involve the long-wave precipitation
patterns of the atmosphere (Hanson, 1987). These circulation patterns were
analyzed using the US precipitation data from 1900-1980. The precipitation
maxima progress across the US from west to east in thirteen days, roughly
half of a month. In the spring, the precipitation maxima occurs after the
full moon when the moon is gibbous in northwestern US. The precipitation
maxima is progressively later in the month in the midwest and the rainfall
maximum in the Eastern US is at new moon.
Peggy Gilmour
(The whole article, plus source documentation, is below in 'links')
Peggy Gilmour whole article
http://hometown.aol.com/permianbry/mnext.htm
>From Mike in Sydney
(The best thing that's happened to weather forecasting since sliced
bread...)
Ýhttp://www.theregister.co.uk/content/2/19442.html
Ý
Atmospheric tides
http://www.auf.asn.au/meteorology/section1a.html#atmospheric_tides
Cam pictures of the skifields
www.snow.co.nz
Global warming website
www.globalwarming.org
Changes to polar ice caps
http://polar.jpl.nasa.gov/
One of NASA's sites
http://www.sepp.org/
Hi Ken
Ocean tides manifest in the sea level rising and falling in a regular
rhythm. What about the lunar atmospheric tide?
(Increased air density. I don't know if it is measurable using regular met
apparatus. You would need to anchor a balloon and measure the pressure
changes throughout the day at the balloon end. Unfortunately a weather
balloon just finds its point of buoyancy and keeps changing height. That's
no good to anyone as it varies and drifts off location. The height must be
kept constant to monitor atmospheric density change or you have too many
variables going on. This would ideally be compared to readings from a
water pressure gauge at a certain depth immersed in the ocean and
tabulated over the same time period. I would expect a parallel pattern to
emerge. But the way to get a balloon height-fixed and geographical
point-fixed eludes me. That's why this work has not been undertaken. The
logistics are huge.)
MSL barometric pressure for weather observations is never actually read at
sea level. It is read at station (barometer cistern) level and an
adjustment is made to a common datum level (Mean Sea Level) so that
pressures read at the same time all over the country or world can be
compared in a sensible way.
R, Wellington.
(All moon data is location-specific. Then it should be compared to another
set of location-specific data. We are looking at a pattern of lunar
effects on wind. There is no need to standardise anything-K )
Hi Ken
Any comments?
(Contributed by Mrs Eileen Marsden).
TABLE FOR FORTELLING THE WEATHER
1. The nearer the time of the Moon's change, first quarter, full and last
quarter are to MIDNIGHT, the fairer will be the weather in the next seven
days.
(Yes, this would hold true generally. When the 3rd Q begins it is
generally near midnight and the moon is above the horizon till lunchtime
the next day. Bad weather has gone because FM-3rd Q is the worst phase of
any month. 3rd Q brings rain in the afternoon and evening until the moon
rises. The atmospheric tide is 'out' and the atmosphere less dense,
allowing in more of the cold of space to the lower atmosphere.
Afternoon/evening rain is an old folklore signal of inclement weather due
to cease.)
3. The nearer to MID-DAY or NOON the phase of the Moon happen, the more
foul or wet weather may be expected during the next seven days.
(Yes once again, for the same reasons as the above. 1st Q begins around
lunchtime with a moonrise then, setting around midnight. This phase brings
morning rain, which traditionally lasts most of the day. Thanks for the
contribution -K)
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