Hi to those who have recently joined or rejoined weather ezine. At the risk of getting up some people's meteorological noses, this author believes the weather is created by the moon. The official forecasters tell us accurately about weather yesterday, today and tomorrow; but this space tries to look a little further afield and ahead. Alternative forecasters do not have all the answers, nor claim 100% accuracy, but then, neither does the metservice.
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27/7/01 The AFP news agency reported that Hong Kong weather forecasters are under fire after the second typhoon false alarm in a month. Everything closed, workers were sent home, the streets were so traffic-free people strolled on the roads, but no storms hit. The Hong Kong Daily News said forecasters could have misjudged "after losing confidence through too many blunders in the past." Eden Woon, director of the Hong Kong General Chamber of Commerce, urged the observatory to improve its forecasting.
As I write this in Titirangi, Auckland, on a blue/gray Sunday afternoon, a heavy rain warning made the TV news last night for this and other areas, due to the reported southerly change sweeping the country. But so far no rain has fallen, so maybe the evening may see some. I would not expect heavy showers in Auckland, but some showers are a possibility. Why is there a southerly change? The moon is only a day or two away from its southern declination; its furthest point south this month. Just before this 'event' we get typically clear weather in this part of the world, because the moon has been hauling northerlies and much in the way of warm air has come down from the tropics. True to form, we have had a good recent period of clear days. Thursday should see some rain over the South Island, but most of NZ should stay mainly dry until August 10th.
The Philippines Mayon volcano erupted suddenly without warning yesterday, 28th July. Ash showers fell on the homes of 130,000 people in the provincial capital, Legazpi, 11km from Mayon's crater. It had previously erupted on June 24th but subsided within 10 days. As seasoned readers of this column are yawnfully aware, I am constantly bleating that earthquakes and eruptions are triggered by the moon. Any of the following lunar-cycle factors will always be potentially significant: Full/New Moon, perigee/apogee, northern/southern declination, or moon crossing equator. When two or more factors coincide, within two days of that date sees great potential for large-scale quake/eruption activity. For a fuller explanation of why this should be so, read articles on www.predictweather.com Well, on June 24th we had New Moon +2 days, perigee+1 day and northern declination +1 day. On July 27th we saw the moon crossing the equator. Yesterday a big quake of magnitude 6.5 rattled Southern Alaska, and today a mag 4 shake was felt in Opotiki.
95bFM report (Tuesdays)
Last week we were back to cool clear days, and as the moon started to come down from the north, it crossed the equator on Thursday, which is often a time for a shower dump. I thought it won't do much here in Auckland other than cause a bit of cloud but I was wrong ~ it did eventuate in rain on Thursday. The temperatures were clearly cold enough for the precipitation. The 10th of August is the next bad weather date to get worried about, and the date too of the next snow dump, if anyone's thinking of going down to the mountain.
What's in store for August in NZ? It should be a mainly dry month, with continuing cold temperatures. Apart from some rain in Russell on the 3rd, Northland looks likely to stay mainly dry until the 12th, and from 21st-28th. In between times the area should see intermittent rain. Auckland will be remarkably dry with significant rainfalls only around 12th and 30th. Most of the rest of the country sees good rain around 10th-14th and dry periods around 14th-18th and 23rd-28th. The exception will be the West Coast of the South Is. which is likely to see rain about 2nd, 10th-13th, 18th-19th, 22nd, and 29th-31st.
August: The middle of August sees minimums above 10 in Whangarei, and during
the third week in Auckland.
September: Only the third week seems to get to above 10 in the north, and
minimums look to be above 10 from the 10th onwards in Auckland.
October: Only the last week will see below 10 minimums.
1st: bad
2nd : average
3rd : excellent
4th : excellent
5th : excellent
6th : excellent
7th: average
8th : bad
(for the whole month see www.predictweather.com (fishing by the moon)
Atmospheric tides
http://www.auf.asn.au/meteorology/section1a.html#atmospheric_tides
Cam pictures of the skifields
www.snow.co.nz
Global warming website
www.globalwarming.org
Changes to polar ice caps
http://polar.jpl.nasa.gov/
One of NASA's sites
http://www.sepp.org/
Moon's role
http://hometown.aol.com/permianbry/mnext.htm
Hi
Confusion, as usual, reigns. (****), on TV3 Wednesday 25th stated that we
would see a La Nina cold snap on this coming Sunday. But I couldn't help
noticing that NIWA, in it's Outlook For July-September 2001 website report,
states "..Oceanic conditions are near average, indicating neither an El Nino
nor a La Nina at present."
What gives?
A.
(Ha! Good comment. I think La Nina, or La NotNina comes and goes when they
want it to in order that those who mention it look knowledgable.-K)
Contact
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