Hi if you have just joined this newsletter, which looks behind the weather and way ahead and at the way the MOON creates our climate. These notes will be produced around significant weather events.
Understanding Southern Declinations
The moon reached its southern declination on the 1st August. That means it
turned the southern corner and proceeded to bring southerlies and
southwesterlies up country. A number of people have asked me to give a full
explanation about what it all means weather-wise, so here it is.
When are these SDs destructive? There are a couple of things to bear in
mind. In the southerm hemisphere, FULL MOONS have the potential to cause
damage in winter because Full moons always occur around southern
declinations in this part of the world. On the other hand, New moons are to
be watched closely in our summer. Why? Because being in the south of the
world the moon comes nearer to us in those times, and through gravitational
attraction whips up more mayhem. Northern hemisphere readers will find the
opposite applies: New moons are bad news in winter and Full moons are not to
be trusted over summer. (example: the heat wave in the US that just killed
an athlete)
The declination is one thing. The second factor to consider is the actual
date the perigee (moon closest-to-earth for the month) falls. If the perigee
and the day of the southern declination occur on the SAME DAY, then you can
expect trouble. (If not, and the SD and the Full moon are a few days apart
also, you can expect clear skies for a few days. The northerlies have run
out of steam and the southerlies haven't yet got their steam up).
And the third moon factor is which HEMISPHERE the perigee happens to be in.
Perigees click around on an 8.85 year cycle, spending roughly 4 years in
each half of the world. Lately they have been hanging around the northern
hemisphere, which is why most weather destruction has occurred there in
recent years, e.g. the York floods of last year.
When I first started exploring this work, the perigees were just starting to
occur over the southern hemisphere, around April 1976. And bingo, I started
to see a pattern immediately. The secret key to the real bad weather is to
look for an SD and perigee coinciding on the same day. Back when I started
watching it those dates were May 5th, 1977, July 28th, and August 24th. And
what happened in this neck of the woods on those dates? More like, what DIDN
'T happen, you mean.
On May 2nd 1977 gale force winds disrupted a yacht race
to Suva, farmers in Otago and Southland suffered extensive damage, stock
losses were high with more than 3000 sheep and 130 cattle lost during the
storm, plus potato, wheat and other crops destroyed. Southland had its worst
floods in at least 10 years. And it wasn't only NZ. 15,000 people were
forced to flee their homes as floods in Recife, in the NE of Brazil saw
rivers rise 10m in two days.
Then what happened on July 28th? A succession
of disturbances brought unsettled weather over the North Island for three
days, with especially heavy rain in Tarankai.
August 24th? Wellington
airport closed for the whole day, White Is erupted, and thousands of lambs
died in the Wairarapa, where it was called one of the wettest July/Aug
periods on record (see NZ Herald, 30/8/77).
In 1978 the SD/perigee same-day-dates were April 26th and June 21st.
The
April date saw a storm lashing NZ so badly, causing widespread power cuts,
vehicle breakdowns and sea conditions so rough that Auckland Vounteer Coast
guard would not order out boats. Power linemen battled 50 knot gusts to
repair widespread cable faults.
And that June date? Again, just read the Herald for that week. Auckland got
blustery winds and about 60mm of persistent rain. Boats were dashed onto
rocks. Slips closed Highway One in Northland. The Canterbury coast was
battered with heavy seas. Much Waikato farmland was under water. Torrential
rain knocked out the main trunk railway line near Wellsford. On the
Coromandel Peninsular the 'Chiltern' rainfall station recorded a 24 hour
fall of 153mm on the 22nd, and 70mm in the previous 24 hours.
By August 1979
the southern hemisphere perigees were over. The next time the perigee graciously visited us was April 1994.
In 1994, May
24th, June 21st and July 18th brought SDs and perigees once again coinciding
on same days. And, absolutely predictably, July 17th in Auckland saw 120mm
of rain, Christchurch saw 25mm and Nelson 62mm.
In 1995 the key dates were
April 17th, May 15th and June 13th. Queenstown got 50mm on the May 15th and
around June 12th Auckland received 30mm; Nelson, 20mm and Christchurch a
mere 80mm.
By April 5th 1997 the perigees had drifted north, away from the
southern hemisphere, and are now not due to return again down here until
April 17th 2003.
So WHEN will these destructive rains occur again in NZ? Our next lot of
perigee and SD dates coinciding will be July 10th, 2003; then June 3rd and
July 1st in 2004; and finally May 26th and June 23rd in 2005. Will we get
destructive weather then? Nothing is more certain.
And that's the story of the southern declinations.
As the southern declination passes and we enter into apogee phase, the gales are gone and everything goes relatively quiet for a week for most of the country, apart from a bit of cloud in Auckland around the 7th. Enjoy it while we can. Around the 10th sees widespread precipitation, as the 3rd Quarter moon, which typically brings afternoon rain, crosses the equator heading north. Go to the mountains on the weekend if you want to see snow falling.
6th: excellent
7th: average
8th: bad
9th: bad
10th: average
11th: average
12th: good
Hi Ken,
I am a commodity trader and follow your site with interest. As you would
know crops like the grains in the US are affected by the amount of rain, and
coffee in Brazil can be damaged by frost. We are close to the end of the
frost season in Brazil. I am wondering if you are able to predict if there
is likely to be a frost in August in Brazil.
Jon
(I don't do Brazil, as I need local temperature data stretching back to
1979. If you can get that, specific to the growing areas you are interested
in, then I can apply my formulae and come up with something that might help
you-K)
Hi Ken
I have been looking at your site as I am very interested in the weather. In
the 3 (aprox) years precceding 1992, I knew that it was going to be very
dry. Another very important aspect was that this experience was, as the
rising of Venus is an epithet of the Sun rise, that this ability to speak
the weather was an epithet of something far greater. In the years after this
experience I have become quite concerned with the direction our nation is
moving and most recently I have become enraged with our Govt's decision to
allow genetic modification. My heart's desire has become to either recognise
or be one of gods two witnesses (weather prophets) spoken of in the Book of
Revelations. I have told my farmer neighbours over the last 6 - 12 months,
to appreciate every drop of water they receive. With this latest deception
with regard to GM I am feeling compelled to speak unimaginable drought and
prcsipitation that is best described as more devastating than beneficial
(Hail, lightning, etc). With respect to the fact that you acknowledge and
understand the principles of weather cycles with in the lunar cycle, do you
consider that Venus has an effect as well. Is Venus in a similar state now
as it was in aprox 89 - 92? I would love to know of any information, ideas,
where abouts or views you have with regards to Gods two witnesses.
God bless
Stephen (Northland)
(I'm afraid I'm not up on the astrology side of things, but I think that
Venus was in roughly the same position during 1982/83, then 1990/92, which
are 9 year intervals and thus being indistinguishable from the moon cycle.
So moon/weather recycling also indicates a correlation with Venus, but in my
view the moon is the main culprit and the planets are possible helpers.
There are many astrometeorologists in the USA who work astrologically, with,
it seems, much success. I recommend the main person in these matters,
Carolyn Egan, who can be reached on carolyn15@home.com -K)
Hi Ken
Thanks for your messages & your forecasts. It was great peace of mind for
our wedding Feb 2000, you were right, perfect weather!!!
Regards Rebecca B
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