Hi if you have just joined this newsletter, which looks behind the weather and way ahead and at the way the MOON creates our climate. These notes will be produced around significant weather events.
Understanding Northern Declinations
The moon will reached its northern declination for August on 16th, NZ time.
That means it turns the northern corner and will soon be bringing warm air
down from the tropics. Consequently an anticyclone is expected around that
time and will cover the country.
The northern hemisphere has been
experiencing heat waves for the opposite reason, over the last week or so.
Up there, warm air has been on the way up(northward) from the equatorial
regions because of the
moon's transit northward, whilst the southerlies down here have produced a
new round of coldness. Things will reverse after Thursday, with NZ getting
warmth and the north of the world getting stormy weather.
When are these NDs
destructive? Like the SDs talked about in the last ezine, the same factors
are to be borne in mind.
Full moon or New moon is a factor as these are high
tide times, both in sea, LAND and AIR. In land tides, earthquakes rear their
heads, also volcanoes, eruptions, and tsunamis. In sea tides, higher water
marks and coastal flooding when storms hit. And in air tides, greater
increases in available O2 when the moon is in the sky, but also bigger
depletions as the moon goes below the horizon after moonset.
In the northern hemisphere, NEW MOONS have the potential to cause overnight
damage in the northern summer, which is now, especially when accompanied by
a perigee(moon closest to earth). The heat of the day builds up, and
tornadoes are especially common around this time. They nearly always occur
in plenty over a New Moon period, and at night when the moon has gone below
the horizon.
Both perigee and New Moon occur this Sunday, NZ time. Not only is this a
double whammy, but because the perigee is over the northern hemisphere until
April 2003, much destruction is to be expected over the coming week. This
perigee is the SECOND GREATEST for the year, the first being in January.
Devastation is guaranteed. Tornadoes will be plentiful. From Thursday till
next Tuesday there is potential for an earthquake at least equal to the
devastating one in Peru. Stay tuned to the news forecasts over the next
week.
Last ezine we said: "Around the 10th sees widespread precipitation, as the 3rd Quarter moon, which typically brings afternoon rain, crosses the equator heading north. Go to the mountains on the weekend if you want to see snow falling." That all came about. Most of the country got some rain, and most of the snowfields had falls.
The whole country clears up for the next five days, with a sprinkle falling on Monday 20th in most places, then another dash on the 23rd and then fine till the 30th. The South Island West Coast and Queenstown get good rains around 18th/19th. High winds will affect some areas on Thursday.
Something fishy is in the air.
A Tekapo resident informs me that over the
weekend they had some norwester rain bringing about 10mm. Not a lot, but the
lake is not going down. According to my source, Meridian Energy let it go,
spilling a lot of rain out of Tekapo in the autumn, thinking that they were
going to get built up the autumn rains which then never came.
That little
tidbit has never reached the news channels. Nor did the weekend drop of wet
stuff. I'm picking some rain falling there at the end of the month, whereas
NIWA has said the lake would get no water till spring. Well, when's that? In
some farms spring has ALREADY arrived, as lambing has begun.
What
constitutes spring is anyone's guess. It differs in different localities. In
Northland there are only two seasons. Winter there is already history. In
Otago/S Canterbury, their summer months are November, October, December and
February, autumn is March/April, and winter is over the next four months. So
anytime now is spring!
It's unfair to hit consumers with threats of
blackouts and steeply rising fuel costs, when the managers themselves of the
hydrolakes may be to blame. It may be all a sneaky manipulation to justify
raising electricity charges and keeping them raised.
14th: average
15th: average
16th: bad
17th: bad
18th: excellent
19th: excellent
20th: excellent
Hi Ken,
Have been a keen follower of your predictions and philosophies on the Mikey
Havoc breakfast show for some time now. Every time an environmental or
meteorological event occurs I say to my wife "Ken Ring predicted this weeks
ago. !" Keep up the good work. My wife And I are touring France during
October & November. Do you have any predictions for the weather there and
then? Would value your opinion.
regards,
Neil
(Unfortunately I don't do those countries, as I need local data to do what I
do. Weather is very location-specific - K)
Ken
Have a look at what other people are saying.
I read your info every time it comes in and check it off to see how you are
doing. How do you see the weather over the next 3 months?
Cheers and thanks for the interesting info you send.
Brendan
"The outlook for July to September 2001
Oceanic conditions in the equatorial Pacific are near average, indicating
neither an El Nino or a La Nina at present. ..Temperatures are
likely to be above average in most districts..Rainfall is expected to be
average to above average in the west and south of the South Island.
Northland, Auckland, Waikato, Bay of Plenty .. above average air
temperatures expected."
(I think the report is a NIWA one, am I right? So no La Nina at present?
Oops...Augy said we ARE in a La Nina only a week ago. So Augy doesn't agree
with NIWA. Who, if any of them, can you believe?
I think we're actually in the dying stages of El Nino. And 'temperatures
above average'? What about the cold snap we're supposed to be in at the
moment? And 'rainfall average to above average in the W and S of the South
Island'? That's where the hydrolakes are! Where's this average to above
average rain then??
These climatologists compare everything to 'average'.
Having no other longrange system, that's the best they can come up with. But
it's only a hindsight exercise. They are talking about a 30 year span from
now back into the past. It doesn't really mean anything to most people,
unless one remembers all the weather over 30 years. Besides, 'average' just
smooths out all the extremes. To achieve average we need extremes to factor
in, which means extremes will occur now and then for sure (to maintain the
average), but any reading of averages won't predict those extremes. So
reports like that are just a mathematical waste of time and taxpayers money.
I was at a ski operators' meeting in April and a NIWA rep called Giles told
them all to expect late season snowfalls, a warmer than average winter and
an average ski season. Actually the snow started within a fortnight, winter
was the coldest ever in some places and it looks like being a bumper season.
So he was out by a country mile. How do I see the weather over the next few
months? Depends where you are, but I think in many districts the cold snap
will continue till September.-K)
Contact
Editor: Ken Ring
Phone: land. 09-817-7625, fax. 09-817-2203, mobile 021 970-696
Postal: P.O.Box 60197 Titirangi, Auckland 7, New Zealand.
E-mail: ken@weatherman.co.nz
Internet: http://www.predictweather.com
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commercial gain. All Rights Reserved (c) Ken Ring 2000 - 2001.