Hi if you have just joined this newsletter, which looks behind the weather and way ahead and at the way the MOON creates our climate. These notes will be produced around significant weather events.
It is with a very heart that I report the passing of veteran NZ longrange lunar weather forecaster Harry Alcock, this morning in Waikato Hospital after a short illness. Harry, author of The Lunar Effect, was 81 and had of recent years, apart from columns in NZ Fishing News and the Te Awamutu Courier, mostly retired from forecasting activities. In his heyday, for many decades he had battled the media and the world of meteorology in this country to gain acceptance for the role of the moon on the weather. Wellknown in the areas where he lived, it was always hard to gain wider support because the media were and still are not only fundamentally conservative but also contractually tied to traditional forecasting suppliers. Harry contacted me three years ago when he learned I had a similar interest in the subject, and ever since then we had enjoyed a close working arrangement and comradeship. His generosity and hospitality will stay with me always. Harry was my teacher, my fellow-researcher and above all, my friend.
The Northern Declination was last Wednesday/Thursday
The September perigee was on Sunday 16th at 0351.
New Moon was on Sunday 16th at 2230hrs.
The moon crosses the equator heading south today, Tuesday 18th this morning at 0344hrs.
You won't see the moon in the sky today as it is hidden against the glare of the sun. The first crescent will be visible tomorrow, 19th as it is setting, at 1931hrs just south of due east, weather permitting.
In the last ezine it was said that another potential at-risk time around the globe would be between last Thursday and today. Anything above magnitude 5 is a significant shake. Up until yesterday, the following above 5s had occurred, an unusually high number for such a small time frame. Many below 5 quakes also occurred.
Source: http://www.geo.ed.ac.uk/quakexe/quakes
To receive free emails as global earthquakes occur, contact sipkin@gldmutt.cr.usgs.gov
11SEP2001 MW=5.7 MEXICO-GUATEMALA BORDER REGION
11SEP2001 MW=6.6 IRIAN JAYA REGION, INDONESIA
12SEP2001 MW=5.7 BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
13SEP2001 MW=5.2 FIJI ISLANDS REGION
14SEP2001 MW=6.0 VANCOUVER ISLAND, CANADA REGION
14SEP2001 MW=5.3 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NZ
15SEP2001 MW=6.1 TONGA ISLANDS REGION
16SEP2001 MW=5.3 SOUTHERN GREECE
16SEP2001 MW=5.4 VANCOUVER ISLD, CANADA
17SEP2001 MW=5.2 CENTRAL EAST PACIFIC
Until that northern declination near the end of last week, we had mostly-dry weather. Then it changed around the end of the week, and began to deteriorate over the weekend in many places, not only here but also overseas. Rain and high winds hit New York, hampering rescue efforts there. Heavy rain also fell in London, Dublin, Geneva, Paris, Tokyo, Johannesburg, Mexico City, Singapore, Frankfurt, Brussels, Amsterdam and Moscow. Following the Sunday perigee, the chance is high for wind and/or changeable weather to develop. They're having it wet and windy in England at the moment.
And whenever the moon crosses the equator, as it did today, you get a brief weather change, generally for the worse. There's been a few showers already today; it looks like some fronts have been creeping north, bringing the potential for wind and rain. This potential will probably peak around tomorrow, the 20th. And as I look out the window of my office, the wind seems to be picking up today at least. The rest of the month will see less fine days in the north than we've been experiencing so far for September.
Looking ahead a bit, we could be in for some night and early morning rain off and on until the end of the month, alternating dry and showery. September will be a month of less than average rainfall for Auckland. Next month, October, will see more rain than we had this month, but it'll still be below average for October figures.
I'm also expecting new snow on Whakapapa and Turoa this week.
The spring equinox for the Southern hemisphere happens this Saturday. On this day the sun passes into the southern celestial equator and on the 22nd day and night all around the world are of equal length. The sun rises due east and sets due west. Those of us who get up early generally meet on the summit of Mt Albert (by the trig pole)at 6:12am to observe the sun rising above the ancient marker stone. In the evening a similarly keen group gathers on Stockade Hill overlooking Howick to see the setting sun disappear into the man-made groove on Mt Wellington at 6:21pm. It's quite an event. Everybody is welcome.
November is going to see well above average rain in the north, as is December.
This is different from the situation in say, midCanterbury, where November will see below average rain and December above average amounts.
Rain is expected in both Lakes Pukakai and Tekapo, a little bit during this week and more on the weekend. If the management doesn't keep letting water out of Tekapo, as I see from the news they keep threatening to do, then the power situation will stay stable.
18th: excellent
19th: average
20th: average
21st: bad
22nd: bad
23rd: average
24th: excellent
Dear Ken,
An informal search around the web for the moon's effects on the
atmosphere only yielded your site. That's how I found it. When I
briefly worked at a weather insurance firm straight out of college,
my boss, looking for a statistical edge, showed me an article about
how maximum rainfall events over any observed weather station
(city) clustered unevenly over two points in the lunar month. I
believed it was 2-3 days after new and full moons. A look at
several monthly weather records showed that pure chance could not
reproduce that uncanny distribution. The moon does affect weather,
but meteorologists up here dismiss it because they have no idea how
to examine it further and how to use it in a predictive
environment. Also, one research article I found showed how the use
of new upper-air measuring devices has discovered a semi-daily
atmospheric tide in the upper atmosphere. Maybe the discovery (and
acknowledgement) of lunar-induced atmospheric tides will not be far
behind.
Marc
New Jersey, USA
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