Hi, if you have just joined this newsletter, which looks behind the weather and way ahead, and at the way the MOON creates our climate. These notes will be produced around significant weather.
Declination: The moon crosses the equator today. .
Apsidal: Apsidal refers to the distance from earth. It is 2 days after apogee, which occurred on Sunday. Apogee is the furthest point away from earth for the month. Today the moon is 406,080km from earth
Phase: It's a Full moon tonight, or to be more exact, 1.30am tomorrow morning.
Look in the sky tonight around 9pm and you'll see the full Moon, between NE and E. Then, on the other said of the sky, about twice as high as the moon, above the W, is Mars. In the old astrology, Mars meant dry weather. The closer it is to the moon, the drier, but it's now moving away, and it will be next to the moon again around the 24th/25th of this month, so a good fine spell will probably occur then too, just like this last lot has been.
When the moon crosses the equator, which is today, we can expect sudden changes, and these are around, but they're being blocked by the high. Today is also a mild earthquake-rich time, but up around Fiji, not so much here, because that's the latitude of the moon at the moment.
Full Moon gives us cloud during the day or increased cold or heat, depending on the season. It's the time of least daytime protection from the heat of the sun or the cold of space. So any rain occurring over a full moon period comes in the daytime, not at night. Last week I said the 25th-29th will be fine for most of the north of the country, due to anticyclonic conditions. I also suggested a fairly wet October is coming, and this should kick in around here on the weekend. So Thursday or Friday the weather will change, and Friday through to Monday should see a bit of rain over Auckland.
Overall October will be wetter than September. November and December will be wetter still.
We're going to start to hear the two most overworked words in the language, El and Nino again soon. Meteorologists like to switch between El Nino and La Nina as a 'reason' for any climatic change, when the true cause has never been understood nor researched by them, which is that the moon controls weather and climate. The true El Nino occurs every 9 years when the Moon's monthly movement north and south of the equator is about equal to the tilt of the earth at 23.5degrees, and this time is around now, October-November 2001. The El Nino of 1992/3 and 1982/3 followed that prescription and every 9 years before that, back into history. The moon's total orbit takes 18.6 years to complete. But for half of that time the moon does a virtual flip-over. In every alternate half of the 18.6 year cycle is it the same. This means that right now the slope is in the opposite direction to that of the last 9 year cycle, which is why the last El Nino of 1992/3 affected the northern hemisphere more than the southern hemisphere, and before that the 1982/3 El Nino affected the southern hemisphere more. It is a fairly sure bet that the coming El Nino for the summer of 2001 is going to be similar to that of 1982/3.
The total range of the moon's declination cycle is from 18.5deg (in 1997) movement N and S of the equator each month, up to 28.4deg by 2006. Upwardly increasing its range of movement about 1deg per year, the moon will again shift the warm tropical air 5deg outside the tropics and further into the temperate zones, working, by 2005, up to a repeat of the so-called Greenhouse Effect of the years that occurred near 1986/7. That was the year the IPCC was formed, in an effort to explain the worldwide increase in temperatures. But they goofed, because they forgot to look at the moon for any answers, blaming higher temperatures instead on CO2 emissions, methane and other bits of totally unproven nonsense.
According to NIWA (Climate Update Number 25, July 2001), 'sea surface temperature anomalies have increased ..slowly during this year. Sea surface temperatures around New Zealand are above average, and should remain above average Öover the next few months'. That sea temperatures between the equator and NZ have already risen slightly above normal is understandable, because in 1997 the moon's monthly movement N and S of the equator was 18deg, and this kept the warm tropical air more or less within the boundaries of the tropics and assisted in raising the sea temperatures there. But from now on these temperatures will decrease slightly as El Nino reaches its peak. The previous warm years this century, which were never known as the Greenhouse Effect, were near 1968, 1950, 1932 and 1914. These last few years of cooler winters is because of the 18-23deg movement of the moon, both here and in the northern hemisphere. By 2003, land temperatures will be seen to begin to rise above the accepted average, and by about 2006-9 the Greenhouse Effect will be back again.
East of Northland the seas have just started getting cooler, which drive fish such as tuna and snapper further out to sea seeking warmer water, because warmer currents won't pass inshore. Inshore seas won't be sufficiently agitated, and the lack of tidal movement at this time causes discoloration from dead plant plankton, creating bloom on seafloor killing some shellfish and other fish. This effect will probably be seen later this year and possibly 2002. It won't affect the seaward western areas but more the sheltered coasts or bays such as Nelson Bay and eastern parts of Northland, Hauraki Gulf and east Coromandel.
During El Nino, winds predominate from the west with more rain along the west coasts of both islands and the south coast of the South Is, with relative shelter to the east. Rainfall to the west and south has been above average, for instance in the South Is west coast and Southland. But most eastern coasts will be dry to very dry. The dryness of both islands will start to become more progressive after 2003. By 2002 the climate will be back to somewhere near normal. Next winter, the midwinter months will not be as cold, as the moon moves further north and south of the equator inside the tropics but moving toward the temperate zones. The ski season will suffer as a result. By 2003, temperatures each month will be above average by about a degree. The very dry years are going to be 2005 and to a lesser extent 2006.
Earthquakes occur at certain specific points in the lunar month. These are at either N or S declination, when the moon crosses the equator, New and Full Moons and perigee. The next lot will be around the equatorial crossing between 2nd-4th October, but NZ's danger time will be around 9th/10th , 16th-18th and 22nd of this month.
Tekapo and Pukaki could be getting some rain-water around October 3rd and the last two days of October.
I think there'll be intermittent showers in November in Marlborough plus a big dump there a week before Xmas which could bring soil moisture up in that region. Taranaki's problems will also be alleviated in November. Masterton and Invercargill have to wait till December. The driest month to watch out for over most areas of NZ will be next April.
Is now available. New format, daily weather predictions two days per page including weather maps and Moon information, for every day of 2002. Individual towns listed for every day, plus inventory for each month and 5-year ahead monthly rainfall projections for all areas up to and including year 2006. 230 pages, A5 paperback size. $NZ27 + 2 postage. To order yours, please send cheque to Ken Ring, P.O.Box 60197 Titirangi, Auckland. Sorry, no credit cards.
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