Hi, if you have just joined this newsletter, which looks behind the weather and way ahead, and at the way the MOON creates our climate. These notes will be produced around significant weather.
Declination: The moon is approaching the northern declination (tomorrow 10th).
The feature of northern or southern declination is that whatever weather is happening hangs around for a couple of days, in other words, systems are slow-moving, because the moon is traveling parallel to the earth's orbit.
Northern declination is the wetter one for NZ. To contrast, when the moon around the southern declination we generally get drier weather.
Apsidal: Apsidal refers to the distance from earth. It is 6 days before perigee, which occurs on the 15th.
Phase: Between the Full moon and the last Quarter.
Between the Full moon and Last quarter is the rainiest time of the moon's phase cycle. October will be a wet month and Marlborough will not see a drought this year. Yet the forecasters were saying only last week that no rain was expected down there in the foreseeable future. To quote from the Marlborough Express last week:
Grim Forecast For Parched Province 02 October 2001
BY DANIEL HUTCHINSON
"The hope of late spring rains is all that remains for dryland farmers and crop growers..Niwa agricultural climatologist Alan Porteous said it was difficult to predict exactly which way the weather patterns would go in Marlborough. "I suspect that things aren't going to get much better, but who knows, things could change. We are on a knife edge at the moment, you might say.."
Yeah, right..way to go, guys..that's the expert opinion. And I'll push the point again - if these taxpayer-funded experts can't get the weather and therefore climate right a WEEK in advance, then how can they be so sure about global warming in 50 years and 100 years time?
Because of the northern declination, the next couple of days is a mild earthquake-rich time for NZ and the Pacific rim, but more so after the 15th of this month
I've said that from the 4th-6th would be the wettest days of the month for most of the country. They did get some flooding in Nelson on the weekend. For the rest of the week I've got drier weather today and tomorrow and some light showers between tomorrow and Thursday, those showers will mainly after lunchtime. Then drier from Friday to Sunday, but some more rain next Monday or Tuesday mainly evening and night. In Auckland we're not going to see a good run of fine days again until towards the end of the month, around the 26th onwards, just after the 1st Quarter of the moon.
Overall October will be wetter than September. November and December will be wetter still.
If you remember last week I said soon we will be reading about an ozone hole bigger than it's ever been. Well, on Saturday in the NZ Herald a big fat article appeared exactly on cue, trying to scare us again. You get these reports every spring, because that's when the wind sends the remnants of the hole over this direction after the Antarctic winter and NIWA picks it up on their instruments down in Christchurch or wherever. Then they go rushing into print and they're too dumb to realize it happens every spring. The truth is that ozone holes are not a threat to us, not now or ever. They're gone by December, which is when we get strong skin-cancer-making sunshine.
Fish actually like rough weather, as it stirs up stuff along the bottom and at the sides of rivers and things and they get more to eat, so they come out, being curious creatures. So it'll be average fishing during this week, but not so good on the weekend, when it's going to clear up a bit.
Tekapo and Pukaki should get water in the last days of October and beginning of November.
I think there'll be intermittent showers in November in Marlborough plus a big dump a week before Xmas which should bring soil moisture up. Taranaki's problems will also be alleviated in November. Masterton and Invercargill have to wait till December. The driest month to watch out for over most areas of NZ will be next April.
Is now available. New format, daily weather predictions two days per page including weather maps and Moon information, for every day of 2002. Individual towns listed for every day, plus inventory for each month and 5-year ahead monthly rainfall projections for all areas up to and including year 2006. 230 pages, A5 paperback size. $NZ27 + 2 postage. To order yours, please send cheque to Ken Ring, P.O.Box 60197 Titirangi, Auckland. Sorry, no credit cards.
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