Hi, if you have just joined this newsletter, which looks behind the weather and way ahead, and at the way the MOON creates our climate. This revives the ancient mathematical system of longrange weather forecasting; in vogue for thousands of years before the days of fancy satellites and pretty computer pictures. Meteorologists deny the moon has a role, probably because it could put them out of a job.
Moon's position on Monday 15th October
Declination: The moon crosses the equator heading south.
Apsidal: Monday is the perigee (moon closest to earth for month)
Phase: Monday is two days before New moon (on 17th).
The moon never passes a declination north or south nor crosses the equator without there being a palapable and unmistakable change in the weather. Usually there is a simultameous disturbance of barometer and thermometer. At this time such changes may take the form of strong winds, gales, sudden frost, sudden thaw, sudden calms or other certain interruptions of the weather., according to the season. Violent winds can happen about 2 days after crossing the equator: if, for regions in the southern hemisphere it is going north, accompanied by cold, and if going south accompanied by warm air aloft, which encourages thunderstorms. The reverse would be true in the northern hemisphere.
Last week's northern declination
Last Wednesday was the northern declination. It brought Hurricane Iris.
"Hurricane Iris leaves 6 dead, 11 missing The strongest Atlantic storm yet this year touched down on Belize's southern coast late yesterday(reported last Wednesday), gathering winds of up to 220 kilometres per hour..At least six Americans have been killed and 11 others missing after a dive boat sank off the coast of Belize as Hurricane Iris crashed into the Central American country, the State Department said"..
NZ too, got large winds, especially around Cook Strait during the week. There was also an earthquake last Tuesday in the lower North Island and a tornado that same day in Northland.
As October looks to me to be a wet month for many districts, I thought it might be useful to warn what may be in store for the rest of the month.
Next week (13th- 20th)
Most areas of the country could receive substantial rainfalls. The mountains will get snow. While Northland and parts of Canterbury will receive less than half their average rainfalls most areas look likely to receive up to twice their average, going on data from past moon cycles. Waikato, Hawkes Bay and Bay of Plenty may receive up to 3 times their average. Daytime temps will be about half a degree below average while night time temps will be about half a degree above average.
The following week (22nd-26th)
Rainfall slightly below average. Although Canterbury and the W Coast could receive about 30% above their average and the Waikato and Bay of Plenty average falls, the rest of the country are likely to receive about half their average. Daytime temps are half a degree below average in the NI and about 1 deg below average over the SI. Night time temps will be about average in the NI and half a deg below average in the SI. Nationally temps will be about half a deg below average. Gisborne and Napier have 25% above average rain toward the end of this period while the Whakatane area receives no rain and Kawerau records a very small amount. Christchurch and Timaru also have little or no rain while the remainder of Otago and Southland look like getting well below normal. Daytime temps will be about average nationally, with night time temps half a deg above average. . Overall the NI will be about half a deg below normal with the SI and eastern districts about 1 deg above average.
From 26th-29th most areas will have anticyclonic weather.
The potential is set for a large earthquake, in or near Peru or Columbia and possibly also NZ, between 15th and 18th October. The most likely time will be early morning or late evening, NZ time.
Best days in the coming week will be 16th-19th.
As I have already said, October will be wetter than September was and November and December will be wetter still. There will be intermittent showers in November in Marlborough plus a big dump a week before Xmas which should bring soil moisture up. So enough water should fall in Marlborough before January to allay drought fears. Taranaki's problems will also be alleviated in November. Masterton and Invercargill have to wait till December. The driest month to watch out for over most areas of NZ will be next April. Temperatures in Marlborough(maximum-air temp)will be slightly below average this October, normal in November, then a degree or so below average right through till the beginning of next March. So where will the droughts be? Although average rainfall will be down over summer, average temperatures should also be below average, which is good news. But should they not fall enough, droughts this summer will be in Otago, Poverty and Hawkes Bays and Palmerston North. Otago will face drought danger again in the summer of 2002/3, along with Canterbury.
Hi Ken,
Thanks for the rain - husband preached Ken all September and made everyone kill themselves getting the crops in and urea on just before the rain started - on the 6th here I think. Now the neighbours are all talking!
Sue
Dear Ken
Hello and Greetings. Thanks for the moon 'info'. We farm a 20 acre block and use the moon calendar which "gives us the jump" on the other big time farmers around here who don't use the same calendar. However, we didn't have the Southern Declination 'info' as well, thank you. Main reason why I am writing is about winter solstice. I live here at Taumutu (very large horizon) and always have been an avid observer of sunrise/set position at solstice. However this year I noticed quite a change in the position of sunrise/set on the winter solstice. The sunrise sun position was further to the north of east and the sunset sun position was further to the west of their usual position. From this I deduced that the north-south meridian on earth has shifted, plus we have a new (or shifted) equator live on earth and South Island is closer to the new equator i.e. closer to the sun (more light) and further away from the southerlies (i.e. less rainfall). I know of two other people who have noticed a shift of sun and shadows. One a high country farmer, and one a solar panel installer. Do you have any 'info' co-relating to the above or am I mistaken?! It would be interesting to see if observers in the Northern Hemisphere have already, or can confirm this in their winter solstice. Do you know anyone there who would check this? I hope to hear back from you, meantime all the best, Peter
(Peter, thanks for writing. Rather than proving the equator has
shifted, you may instead have helped to prove that the moon plays a
major role in changing the density of the air. Let me explain.
By definition the winter solstice (Latin "standing still") is the
day the sun rises at its furthest point north of east in our
hemisphere and sets at its furthest point north of west. The exact
time the sun begins its southward descent is near impossible to
determine, unlike the equinox which happens within 24 hours. One
can imagine a pendulum operating in a horizontal plane. At the
furthest point of the swing it stands still for a short while (the
sun at solstice) but in the middle of the swing (sun at equinox) it
is traveling its fastest.
If one observes the sun rise over the extended solstice period of a
few days it should appear to rise at some time at its furthest
point. But you say it didn't, so here's a suggested
explanation.
Refraction through an extended atmosphere at the horizon when the
sun is rising can put the sun at a different visual position. The
effect is like seeing a coin in a different position when it is
under water and the viewer is above. When the sun rises, it
actually does so 8 minutes beforehand, but the light takes that
long to reach us, and a thicker atmosphere will heighten that
error. The thickness of the atmosphere at any time is mostly
controlled by the moon. What the moon does to the air can be
likened to what it does to the sea. On a king tide, more sea comes
in. On a king air tide, more air comes in. ëIn' meaning over
the horizon with the moon.
Amazingly, at the time of the last June solstice; on or near that
very day, the moon was New, at northern declination and in perigee.
All these three factors would greatly increase the size of the
air-tide. So when the moon began rising above the horizon (daytime,
and on that day at about the same time as sunrise) the air tide was
incoming and the atmosphere was "thickening up" rapidly at the edge
of the horizon. Moving north with the moon, the air "current" could
well have skewed the sight of the rising sun. Like putting more
water into a bowl that has the coin on the bottom, the refraction
effect may have increased.
Also, New Moon, northern declination and perigee cause more
earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, the latter putting more dust
into the atmosphere and further creating a thickening effect.
Unfortunately one cannot see the airtide, but it is there and
meteorologists sneakily adjust daily barometric pressures at sea
level to factor it out.
Your shadow shift may be thus explained. It would have been a local
effect only, because moonrise is location-specific.
I would doubt there has been any equatorial movement. If the
equator HAS shifted there has to have been a cause, and none has
presented itself globally. As the equator is joined to the Earth, a
shift would necessitate a massive distortion of the globe. Which
way would it distort?
A shifted equator southward-only, pear-shaped, would bow out the
equatorial belt which would mean a hotter climate here and a very
much colder winter in the northern hemisphere, which hasn't been
reported either here or there. In fact this spring our monthly
temperature averages are lower.
A shifted equator northward would take NZ further from the sun
because the whole globe would be elongated and the diameter of the
earth at our latitude would be lessened.
In any event, a shift in the equator would take many thousands of
years to set in any effect. Something like that doesn't just happen
overnight. But it is unlikely that an equatorial shift by itself
could bring any part of the Earth closer to the sun. The earth
moves around the sun along the plane of the ecliptic and is tilted
at 23.4 degrees toward the sun. For any part to be closer would
require a tilt change. This already happens slightly over 40,000
years, hardly noticeable within one person's lifetime. And we
wouldn't escape the southerlies. They would still come from the
south, wherever that south happened to be-K)
Is now available. New format, daily weather predictions two days per page including weather maps and Moon information, for every day of 2002. Individual towns listed for every day, plus inventory for each month and 5-year ahead monthly rainfall projections for all areas up to and including year 2006. 230 pages, A5 paperback size. $NZ27 + 2 postage. To order yours, please send cheque to Ken Ring, P.O.Box 60197 Titirangi, Auckland. Sorry, no credit cards.
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