Hi, if you have just joined this newsletter, which looks behind the weather and way ahead, and at the way the MOON creates our climate. This revives the ancient mathematical system of longrange weather forecasting; in vogue before fancy satellites and pretty computer pictures came along to get it wrong.
MOON'S POSITION on Sunday 21st October
Declination: Over the next two days the moon is at the southern declination, with it's maximum southern point reached this evening at 6.45pm.
Apsidal: Today is 6 days after perigee.
Phase: Three days before 1st Q (on 24th).
High winds in two days usually follow a northern or southern declination. These winds will become southerly.
(From the last ezine) .. "The potential is set for a large earthquake, in or near Peru and possibly also NZ, between 15th and 18th October. The most likely time will be early morning or late evening, NZ time." The time predicted, moon set or rise time, is when most earthquakes occur. As if like clockwork, the Napier shake came on the 15th and measured 5.9 on the Richter scale, occurring at 4.49pm - close enough to moonset at Napier which was about half an hour away at 5.20pm. What about Peru? On 15th there were two earthquakes near the coast of central Chile, the next day one in the Dominican Republic, one on the Chile/Bolivia Border, one in southern Bolivia, one in southern Peru and on the 17th a big one in Argentina. TV3 made a big fuss and ran a piece that evening about the prediction 4 days beforehand. But most major newspapers who had also received press releases on the 11th, stayed silent.
Today is also earthquake-likely. Southern declinations bring them on, too.
October is so far fulfilling its wet promise. From last week ..
"(13th- 20th) Most areas of the country could receive substantial
rainfalls. ..while Northland and parts of Canterbury will receive
less than half their average rainfalls most areas look likely to
receive up to twice their average.." And we've certainly had rain
in some quantity, mainly at night, which is what you get in a New
Moon phase. Did the meteorologists pick it? For Auckland, their
extended listing on the 12th on the following website:
http://www.weather.com/weather/local/NZXX0003
said only 16th and 19th would see showers. On the 16th, which was mostly fine, they had changed to "16th windy and the 20th showers. They missed the 18th which saw rain all day. So on the 19th we read "19th: rain, (yes!) and 21st rain.. Today was the 21st. I didn't see rain anywhere and I was on the harbour all day. Tomorrow? "Northland to Coromandel Peninsula - Occasional showers or thunderstorms becoming frequent and heavier for a time on Monday" I'm picking mainly dry daytime weather and only some overnight showers. In fact I'm picking mainly dry weather right till the end of the month for Auckland.
" NIWA is just as bad. They are the government's SOE and research arm. They' re always so sure about global warming. Here's what they put into their 'Outlooks', with web references if you want to check them:
Outlook SEPTEMBER TO NOVEMBER(Report #27)
Ref: http://www.niwa.cri.nz/ncc/images/cu200109.pdf
"Average-above average rainfalls are expected except in the EAST of the North Island where drier conditions are likely.."
Next month's report on the previous month -
Outlook OCTOBER (Report # 28)
Ref: http://www.niwa.cri.nz/ncc/month.html
"New Zealand Climate in September 2001: Exceptionally dry start to spring: September rainfalls were down from normal by 50% or more over much of New Zealand. Wanganui and Levin recorded their lowest September rainfalls since records began in 1890 and 1895 respectively. Other parts of the west and south of the North Island, and the north of the South Island, received their lowest September rainfalls in 30 years. Some districts north of Auckland and in EASTERN BAY OF PLENTY had above average rainfall during September"
I repeat - do we NEED a metservice? I rest my case.
Next week (22nd-26th)
Rainfall slightly below average. Although Canterbury and the W Coast could receive about 30% above their average and the Waikato and Bay of Plenty average falls, the rest of the country are likely to receive about half their average. Gisborne and Napier have 25% above average rain toward the end of this period while the Whakatane area receives no rain and Kawerau records a very small amount. Christchurch and Timaru also have little or no rain while the remainder of Otago and Southland look like getting well below normal.
The following week of 26th-29th
Most areas will have anticyclonic weather.
Fortnight of Oct 31st- November 12th
Southland: fine weather
Otago: Mixed weather with rain heavy at times, enough to lift river levels and delay cultivation but not flood the land. Ground conditions wet.
South Canterbury: Wet weather saturates soils and delays need for irrigation.
Mid Canterbury: Warm spring temps and high moisture levels prompt strong spring growth.
North Canterbury: Feed situation not good. Mild weather, reasonably moist nights and only a few hot nor'wester days.
West Coast: Marked improvement in weather.
Marlborough: Storm.
Nelson: Banks of Takaka River may break due to heavy rainfall.
Wairarapa: Good pasture growth with continual rain, reasonable sunshine levels and less wind than last year.
Manawhatu: A lot of rain but won't create a problem. Temps lift and growth starts.
Taranaki: Continuous rain gives steady pasture growth although not too excessive.
Hawkes Bay: Warm with frequent showers and rivers back high, with some flash flooding. Chance of one slight frost but soil temps above average.
Bay of Plenty/Central Plateau: Heavy rainfalls may cause some farms to be flooded in Galatea and the lower reaches of the Whakatane River.
King Country: Warm wet weather. Pastures would benefit from sunshine.
Waikato: Widespread rains make good pasture growth.
Auckland: Rainfall about 70% above normal.
Northland: Regular heavy showers.
Getting back to NIWA; one mustn't be too unkind - they have a
very informative site. Did you know that over the last 20 years
"Areas that have become wetter are the west coast of South Is,
Nelson and Marlborough (8% wetter).
Ref: http://www.niwa.cri.nz/mr/media98/sld008.htm
And all this time we all thought Marlborough was getting drier.
And that "Franz Josef Glacier has been growing since 1984. It is
now back up to the length it was in 1959.
Ref: http://www.niwa.cri.nz/mr/media98/sld012.htm
So the glaciers aren't receding then?
If they looked carefully at their own evidence, they'd see a
lunar link to climate change over the last 20 years.
Ref: http://www.niwa.cri.nz/mr/media98/sld019.htm
This page explains how sea surface temps were down in 1969, 1979,
1983, 1987, 1992 and 1996.
Those familiar with the moon orbit facts will know that 1968 was
the 28deg year of Maximum Declination of the moon, when it has
spread the atmosphere like butter over the greatest area of the
earth. 1979 was the 18deg year of Minimum Declination, the other
end of the cycle, or the year of the atmosphere being spread over
the smallest latitude range. 1987 once again saw the 28deg year and
1996 again the 18deg year. So this falls in line exactly the 18.6
year 'Nodal' Cycle of the moon.
Then there's the page describing how The South Pacific
Convergence Zone assumed a new eastward position just after 1978,
again the 18deg moon year.
Ref: http://www.niwa.cri.nz/mr/media98/sld021.htm
And yet again - "it is apparent that 1977 was a key year in
which significant changes in climate occurred in the Pacific Basin.
An abrupt shift in the climate of North America also occurred.
Global average temperatures, which showed little change from 1940
to 1977, then warmed 0.3°ree;C by 1997." (Apart from the
fact that they are lying, because 1940-1980 showed a global
DECREASE in temperature which they never publicise, 1978 the
reference is once again to the moon's 18deg year.
Ref: http://www.niwa.cri.nz/mr/aug6_98.html
SUBMISSIONS AND GLOBAL WARMING AGAIN
Minister of Energy Pete Hodgson has called for public submissions before introducing the buy-the-Greens'-vote Carbon Tax . Send them in, even though, he said on Thursday "the science of climate change is undeniable.." Clearly the government has already made up its mind. Actually the science of climate change is nonexistent, except in the mind of the dummy who first thought it up and the other dummies who have come along later to nod their heads and collect research funds.
1. CO2 is heavier than air. Most of it is at ground level. Same with CO. So it can't form any greenhouse cover because it just aint there.
2. Keeping forests as carbon sinks is a waste of time as mature trees don't absorb CO2; only growing trees do. CO2 discharges very rapidly into the marine environment. Of all the carbon in the world (49000 billion metric tonnes), fossil carbon is believed to constitute 22% in the form of rocks and fuels. The oceans hold 71%, as carbonates and bicarbonate ions. 3% is in dead organic matter and phyloplankton. Terrestrial ecosystems, of which forests are the main reservoir, hold ONLY 3% of the total carbon. The remaining 1% is held in the atmosphere and used in plant photosynthesis. Atmospheric CO2 is readily dissolved in both rainwater (2gms/litre at 10degC) and seawater. It only has to rain and CO2 is GONE from the atmosphere.
3. Methane is inflammable and burns off in lightning. Farmland is diminishing anyway, and our stock numbers dwindling due to lower meat prices and land forestation.
4. All the hype comes from the IPCC, which is not composed of
scientists but of "nations" with a political agenda. They have
concentrated on surface temperatures, which are unreliable because
of clouds, and which totally ignore satellite data from the last 18
years showing no global temperature increases.(ref
science@NASA.com) The IPCC have been accused and petitioned against
by genuine scientists because to bolster their nonfactual claims
they have been found to have falsified scientific reports, to show
human influence in climate change where no evidence exists for
it.
Ref: http://www.john-daly.com/
Best days in the coming week ..all okay except next Sunday and Monday, 28th and 29th.
(17 Oct 2001) again from http://www.john-daly.com/
Tuvalu, an island nation of 10,000 people on nine low lying atolls in the South Pacific, have now conned the New Zealand government into accepting an annual quota of Tuvaluans as `environmental refugees', citing rising sea levels from climate change as their justification. In concluding the agreement, the Tuvalu government condemned Australia and the USA for not embracing the Kyoto Protocol and for not joining with New Zealand in accepting `responsibility' for Tuvalu's real or imagined fate.
Since the total area of Tuvalu is only 26 square kilometres, that makes the population density of the islands nearly 400 people per sq. km. (a high density figure by world standards). The capital of Tuvalu is Funafuti, and it has had a tide gauge installed there for years, its data being checked by the National Tidal Facility in Adelaide, Australia.
There is no sea level rise, merely periodic falls in sea level during El Nino events. Tuvalu has merely taken the forward predictions of the IPCC and is pretending they are happening now. The environmental media (and apparently the New Zealand government) clearly cannot tell the difference between an observed event in the present and one projected for some future time. Tuvalu has exploited that uncritical mindset to press their claim that they were already victims of sea level rise, when in fact they are not. But the reported `plight' of the Tuvaluans is not about sea level rise at all - it's about over-population. With such a high population density, the fresh water table on the atolls is subject to rapid depletion, especially in dry years. In addition, the development which would follow from such a high density will bring the inevitable coastal erosion, a problem which the Tuvalu government falsely blames on climate change and sea level rise.
Tide gauge data from all around the South Pacific shows the same pattern as the one at Funafuti - no sea level rise. It is, and always was, a bogus claim, with few in the outside world bothering to check the accuracy of the claim. Radio Australia blew the whistle on the scam, reporting that the latest sea level result for June 2001 shows a sea level actually a few centimetres below what it was in March 1993 when a new high-tech tide gauge was installed. During El Nino events sea level drops about 30 centimetres. Of course, the Tuvaluans in their bid to get international refugee status may be pulling the old statisticians trick - claiming a sea level rise on the basis of a very selective time frame, say from mid-1998 to the present, a period when sea level merely recovered from the temporary low of the 1998 El Nino to the normal level of today.
In spite of these easily verifiable facts, environmental journalists continue to recycle the bogus claims about sea level rise at Tuvalu, without ever checking the bona fides of the claims. If Tuvalu wants migration rights for their citizens to New Zealand and Australia, they should at least be honest about the reasons - over-population, erosion etc., instead of using this deception about a non-existent sea level rise. .
As I have already said, October will be wetter than September was and November and December will be wetter still, in terms of total rainfall figures. There should be more intermittent showers in November in Marlborough plus a big dump a week before Xmas which should bring soil moisture up. Enough water should fall in Marlborough before January to allay drought fears. So where will the droughts be? Although average rainfall will be down over summer, average temperatures should also be below average, which is good news. But should they not fall enough, droughts this summer will be in Otago, Poverty and Hawkes Bays and Palmerston North. Otago will face drought danger again in the summer of 2002/3, along with Canterbury. The driest month to watch out for over most areas of NZ will be next April.
My friend Carl Smith in Australia has kindly put all the back
issues of these ezines online at:
http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ezines/ezineindex.htm
(thanks Carl)
I'm told another way to get them is through:
http://www.topica.com/lists/weather/read
Dear Ken
Firstly I'd like to say thanks for your emails there really useful.
Im writing in regards to the surf conditions over the Christmas
period and were wondering what the predominant wind direction would
be. The tropical cyclones that drift southwards from the tropics
increase the swell and we were wondering what the chances were of
these occurring. thanx for your reply.
Andrew G.
(A lot have asked me that, Andrew, so I have put the following article on my website. On the 16th October 2001 the NZ Herald ran this piece..
"Cyclone Risk Low: New Zealand is likely to escape being hit by a tropical cyclone this summer, says the National Institute of Water and Atmosphere Research (NIWA). It believes the chances of cyclone activity between November and January are low for most of the South Pacific."
Yep, NIWA again. Spare me!
Looks like they're making ANOTHER prediction based on zilch.
The moon is responsible for cyclones, in the US called hurricanes and
in Asian countries typhoons.
Cyclones develop only when the seas
reach a temperature of about 28degC and this usually occurs when
the sun is over a particular hemisphere and close to or past its
solstice position of that tropic, which will allow sufficient time
for the sun's rays to heat the sea to that critical temperature.
The heating process will continue after the moon has crossed the
equator and into the other hemisphere. The build-up of heat will be
speeded to that level during a Full Moon phase and into the Last
Quarter because that is the time for the low atmospheric tide, both
from the moon being a night moon and because the moon is over the
opposite hemisphere.
Also, if the moon is at perigee, the
atmospheric tide will be even lower because of the greater
gravitation effect from the moon in that period. So what cyclones
and wind systems could be coming?
Studying past moon cycles, one finds that tropical cyclones will
form on or about the Last Quarter moon of this December, meaning
8th - 16th, the Last Quarter moon of January which will be
10th-18th, and the Last Quarter moon of February (9th). There will
be bad weather during those time windows, fed by the tropical
cyclonic systems.
Over the Christmas season I think we can look
forward to predominant winds mostly from the southwest but with
northerlies between December 13th-21st, January 6th-8th, 16th-18th,
21st-23rd and 28th-31st. The worst hit areas will be, as usual, the
northern part of the North Island followed by eastern districts.
Each cyclone will take a couple of days for effects to reach
NZ.
Resulting storm systems will be:
In the North Island December 14th-20th, January 22nd-23rd, and
February 12th-14th.
In the South Island December 19th-21st, January 22nd-25th, and
February 13th-14th.
So my view is that NZ will not escape cyclone activity this summer.
- K)
Is now available. New format, daily weather predictions two days per page including weather maps and Moon information, for every day of 2002. Individual towns listed for every day, plus inventory for each month and 5-year ahead monthly rainfall projections for all areas up to and including year 2006. 230 pages, A5 paperback size. $NZ27 + 2 postage. To order yours, please send cheque to Ken Ring, P.O.Box 60197 Titirangi, Auckland. Sorry, no credit cards.
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