Hi, if you have just joined this newsletter, which looks behind the weather and way ahead, and at the way the MOON creates our climate. This revives the ancient mathematical system of longrange weather forecasting; before words like satellite, computer or meteorology were dreamed up.
Moon's position on Monday 30th October
Declination: Today the moon crosses the equator heading north (winds).
Apsidal: We are three days past apogee (moon furthest from earth for month)
Phase: Two days before Full moon (on 1st).
The fine spell in Auckland started on Sunday afternoon and will end today or tomorrow. It started to clear up at exactly 3.45pm on Sunday, just as the moon was just rising.
Yesterday on TV3 Augy said you could call October a wet month, which is what this website predicted at the beginning of the month. The next ten days will see further wet weather for Auckland, as soon as the wind turns northeasterly, which should click in tomorrow and stay that way till around November 9th.
I think November will be an even wetter month than October was, for all areas north of the Taupo line. For Auckland we may be looking at half as much rain again. On the other hand, the South Island will be drier. Canterbury will think they're in trouble, but they won't be, as they'll get good rain, more than average in December, January, February and March.
Over November, the windiest day for Auckland will be on the 1st, the most rain will be around the 3rd, the hottest day will be on the 19th, the coldest on the 27th, and the sunniest will be about the 26th.
There'll be some good-sized earthquakes down here in NZ too, around the 6th to the 7th, then again between the 12th and 15th.
For Christchurch in November the wettest day is likely to be the 1st, the sunniest and hottest will be the 21st, and the coolest will be the 2nd.
The hydrolakes received water on Saturday, because my good friend Andrew who lives only 20kms away rang me and told me. Funny it wasn't in the papers - maybe they want you to think there's still a crisis, so the wholesale electricity prices can stay high. December, February and August rainfalls will be above average down there.
This summer Auckland will see more rain and cooler temperatures. There will not be the endless run of fine days we associate with the season. In the beginning of December for Auckland there will be a week of hot weather which will fool us into thinking it will go on for ever. But the next lot of endless good days won't occur until the first ten days of March. Apart from those windows, the summer will typically see two or three rain days followed by the same number of fine ones.
In Canterbury the fine days in December will be from 9th-17th and most of January, February and the first half of March will be fine.
North Island December 14th-20th, January 22nd-23rd, and February 12th-14th.
In the South Island December 19th-21st, January 22nd-25th, and February 13th-14th.
The back issues of these ezines are online at two sites:
http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ezines/ezineindex.htm
http://www.topica.com/lists/weather/read
Hi Ken,
I'm new to your site and have seen the forecast for my area for today and it says dry. This is rather odd since it is absolutely bucketing down outside. I just wonder how accurate your monthly forecast is?
Steve
(Yes, I got it wrong on the weekend. Although I never claim 100% accuracy, I am told I'm more accurate than the metservice overall. Sadly it is necessary to go into a bit of damage control if I do get it wrong, but I only have limited resources, not like the metservice which has billions of dollars worth of equipment and data to draw on, not to mention getting paid for research time.
I feel I'm only just opening the door to this stuff, and it has taken me 25 years to get to this point.
To compare, both TV channels on Friday said Saturday would not be a wet day. It was. On Saturday they said Sunday, Monday and Tuesday would see showers, but it cleared up on Sunday. A day out and they're generally okay, but more than that and they seem to lose accuracy. Yet I am doing this a whole year beforehand.
The southern declination brings stationary systems which can block other developments, i.e. hang around longer than they should. My forecasts can go awry at these times. And the southern declination occurred last week. So I'm sorry you've had a bad impression, but I hope you'll give the thing a bit longer before you dismiss it entirely, or at the very least be just as critical of the metservice's wrong forecasts that you pay for out of your taxes. Remember you get mine here for free-K)
Ken
You haven't mentioned it in your ezines, so I wonder if you have noticed. On October 31, we are having a Full Moon on Halloween and, as it's the second Full Moon for October (the first was on October 2), it's a Blue Moon as well.
Garth C., (USA)
(No, not down this way, only in the northern hemisphere. But we do get a blue moon this December because of Full Moons on the 1st and 30th of that month.-K)
Hi Ken,
I was reading your Oct. 21st e-zine and found this statement: 'This page explains how sea surface temps were down in 1969, 1979, 1983, 1987, 1992 and 1996. Those familiar with the moon orbit facts will know that 1968 was the 28deg year of Maximum Declination of the moon, when it has spread the atmosphere like butter over the greatest area of the earth. Could you please elaborate on this topic, especially, "when it has spread the atmosphere like butter over the greatest area of the earth". As always, I enjoy your work and the comments.
Carolyn
(When the moon is at the maximum of 28 deg declination it is moving 5 deg north and south OUTSIDE both tropics. The moon is the distributor of the atmosphere around our planet, so each month in its movement north and south of the equator it is circulating the warm equatorial air outwards into the temperate zones thus raising the average temperatures there. The declination of the moon raises by about a degree a year until it reaches that 28 degrees of latitude mentioned.
From about 1983/4 when the moon was near 24 deg declination, which movement is close to the 23.5deg position of both of the tropics, and up to 1987/8 when the moon arrived at the 28degrees, the moon was circulating the warm atmosphere to beyond the tropics and into the temperate areas, like a spreading of butter over an ever widening area, and it was about this time that the scientific personnel, climatologists etc were beginning to develop and propound the Greenhouse Effect theory. That exact same warmth had occurred around 1968/9, which had been the last previous 28deg declination period, but it wasn't called anything then.
After 1987, and when the climate effect had grabbed the imagination of the media, this doominess was maintained and continued until around 1990, when average temperatures started to show signs of reversing.
The cold winters of 1991 and 1992 saw an almost complete absence of Greenhouse comments and articles on the subject. By about 1996 the moon was down to about 18deg declination where it remained until around 1997 with a variation of only a few seconds of arc in that period.
A return to above average temperatures will begin to occur again around 2002. Our next 28deg stage will be around 2006 but I will venture a guess that the observations and media fallout from it will continue until around 2010. There will be carbon taxes, rushes on alternative energy shares, maybe even wars on non-Kyoto compliant administrations around that time. A lot of people will scoop from taxation funds millions in Commissions of Inquiry, Environmental Impact reports and industrial license-levying as incentives to conserve heating and gas emissions, all based on one essential lie (that the moon does not alter climate-K).
Ken
I am a farmer running an extensive sheep and beef operation. I live in Canterbury, under Mt Hutt, near Lake Coleridge, 1 hour travel from Christchurch. Average rainfall 50 inches, prevailing wind Nor-West although a lot of Southerly, height 500m above sea level. I am keen to know your thoughts on the weather patterns for this Summer, Autumn, Winter and the following Spring, Summer, Autumn.
Sam B.
(In Canterbury, November will be drier and average temperatures, December through to February will be wetter and cooler than normal. The spring will be warmer and after march, drier. July will be wetter and August drier. There will be no severe snow storms, with any heavy falls not lasting more than a day or two each. - K)
Hi Ken,
Have been viewing your site for some time & have just sent a cheque for your 2002 Almanac.
In very general terms you are correct in your forecasting over the last 3 to 4 months. We're farming 10 km west of Huntly and have reasonably detailed diaries going back. August was a lot wetter for us in 2001 than 1982 ; but the 2 years parallel approx as the pattern has continued of being a very dry spring for us . How am I going or am I away from the mark?
Jeff
(It sounds like you're onto it! I don't just use the one system, but several. This is because no one cycle pattern gives everything.
The 19 year cycle you are looking at will give day of month of phase repeating, also time of day of moonrise and moonset. This will also tell you the time that rain will fall. So, for instance, if rain came on March 21 1982 at 4pm the chances are high that it will happen again (if rain is about) at 4pm on March 21, 2001. It seems to work. Not for amount, though, only for time of day. So I use the 19-year for that information. If the rain's not there the temperature will drop at that exact time. But also the 19 year cycle is good for telling you how MANY rain days there will be in a month. If, say, 7 rain days occurred in March 1982, then it's a sure bet there'll be 7 again for the whole of March 2001.That means if it rains from 1st-6th of March, just say, then there'll only be one more rain day, which means a dry rest-of month. I use a few other cycles as well, like double the 19 with an adjustment to account for perigees (which are on a cycle of their own), and average the lot.-K
Is now available. New format, daily weather predictions two days per page including weather maps and Moon information, for every day of 2002. Individual towns listed for every day, plus inventory for each month and 5-year ahead monthly rainfall projections for all areas up to and including year 2006. 230 pages, A5 paperback size. $NZ27 + 2 postage. To order yours, please send cheque to Ken Ring, P.O.Box 60197 Titirangi, Auckland. Sorry, no credit cards.
Contact
Editor: Ken Ring
Phone: land. 09-817-7625, fax. 09-817-2203, mobile 021
970-696
Postal: P.O.Box 60197 Titirangi, Auckland 7, New
Zealand.
E-mail: ken@weatherman.co.nz
Internet: http://www.predictweather.com
Subscribe: Send a blank email to weather-subscribe@topica.com.
Contributions: The editor reserves the right to include or
exclude contributions submitted. Comments or questions for Q's and
A's should be addressed to ken@weatherman.co.nz
Disclaimer: The contents of this document are the views and
opinions of the editor and/or associates only, and carry no
guarantees as to accuracy. No responsibility will be undertaken by
the editor or webmaster for actions or outcomes on the part of
readers as a result of information contained herein. Opinions
expressed by contributors and reprinted are likewise their own and
may or may not reflect the views of the editor or the
webmaster.
Copyright: This e-zine is subject to international copyright
laws but may be freely distributed to all interested parties;
except for purposes of unauthorized commercial gain. All Rights
Reserved (c) Ken Ring 2000 - 2001.