Hi. Welcome to the weather ezine, which looks behind the weather and way ahead, and at the way the MOON creates our climate. This revives the ancient mathematical system of longrange weather forecasting, before words like satellite, computer or meteorology were dreamed up.
For Tuesday, November 13th.
Yesterday was the perigee and the day the moon crossed the equator heading south.
Perigee brings intensity and equatorial crossing can bring wind and changeability. At the moment we're seeing a classic case of the moon heading south and dragging the airflows down from the NW. Most of the force of the low will stay west of the ranges. By tomorrow, for most areas, the barometer will be under 1000mbs, and keep going down till Thursday, after which it will upswing again.
The barometer is higher when the Moon is in the southern hemisphere, that is, now, and lower when in the northern hemisphere. When the moon is in the south only shallow depressions are usual until it crosses to the other hemisphere again, which will be around the 26th.
We're getting towards a New moon which is on 15th in just two days time. What happens is that in our summer, New Moons occur around the southern declination, and because the atmosphere is attracted to this side of the earth at that time, and with the assistance of the sun's gravitational pull, the height of the atmosphere is greater. Then, as the atmosphere is our blanket, we get warm humid conditions with greater cloud cover. The increased height of the atmosphere protects what is below from too much rain. The clouds gather towards midday and clear towards evening. Rain, when it is about, is nearly always day rain. And from now on, those conditions are what we'll get around or just after each New moon until about March.
The perigee yesterday was about 10th closest for the year, so not one that brings particularly high winds this time, although they have had torrential rains resulting in a disastrous flood that has taken 400 lives already in Algiers, and the past couple of days have seen typhoons in the Phillipines and in Vietnam.
There's been some big talk in the media about ozone danger this summer. Yet at the public Kyoto protocol meeting I attended last week, the presenter said that due to the recent restrictions, the ozone problem has largely abated. Whatever. So the article I cut out of the Herald dated and stating that the so-called hole is as big as it's ever been, was incorrect. If only they'd make up their minds.
The only danger from the sun will be, as always in summertime, on Full Moon days, which this summer will be around the ends of the months and beginnings of the following ones.
We had a couple of decent earthquakes last week, one in Fiji of around 6.6mag, one in Wellington on the 9th, and one on the 10th.
How do they know the sealevels are rising? It isn't enough to look at the sea and say oh yes, it's higher than when I was a boy. No, it has to be measured. And what dates are compared? After all, New Moon, Full Moon, declinations, perigees, time of rise and set of the moon, and wind direction can all affect tide heights, not to mention high pressure weather which tends to slightly diminish tide versus low pressure weather systems which tend to raise them. Are there dates which we can look to in the past by which tide heights can be compared?
I decided to take the bull by the horns a few days ago. The nearest we can get is to look at the 19 year cycle. At the equivalent date in the past, say 13th November 1982 for today, the 13th November 2001, the phases are identical, moonrise and set times to within a quarter of an hour, and declinations match. Generally speaking, then, these dates are comparable. Do the test yourself. Look up the comparable date in the newspaper for any day whatsoever, at the same location 19 years ago. Look at the tide time and see if they match. Accordingly, so can 38 years(13th November 1963). Increments of 19 can go way back. look up 133 years and the match will be the same, give or take around fifteen minutes.
Whangarei had a high tide on 12th at 6.55am, and 19 years ago at 6.51am. So it should be reasonable to suppose that tide heights follow the same matching pattern. Looking at tide heights in the old newspaper clippings and comparing these to today's newspaper data for tide heights at the same locations certainly reveals interesting results.
I selected Auckland for 1st and 2nd November. Here's what I found.
1st Nov 1963: time of high tide=650am and 1920pm. Heights 3m and 3.2m
1st Nov. 1982: time of high tide=707am and 1930pm. Heights 2.9m and 3m
1st Nov. 2001: time of high tide=710am and 1930pm. Heights 2.9m and 3m
2nd Nov. 1963: time of high tide=743am and 2008pm. Heights 3.2m and 3.2m
2nd Nov. 1982: time of high tide=754am and 2016pm. Heights 3.1m and 3.1m
2nd Nov. 2001: time of high tide=750am and 2010pm. Heights 3.08m and 3.09m
It is pretty clear that the sealevels are NOT rising, at least in Auckland. If anything, they are DROPPING. Yet the NIWA study done in Lyttleton Harbour two years ago was supposed to conclude that the sea was rising. Well, maybe it IS, down THERE. NZ is a very tectonically active area. Land is rising and falling constantly. Scientists are puzzled over why the sealevel is falling in the north of England, but rising in the south. The obvious answer is that some land is falling, some rising. Nothing to do with sealevel itself, which is constant the world over, but everything to do with the movement of land. And likewise, global warming is all about natural tidal fluctuations of the air over the same time period.
We're going to get the effects of some cyclones around December 14th -20th , January 22nd -23rd , and February 12th -14th.
Auckland City:
19th November 10am-1pm and 5.30pm-7.30pm. council chamber, ground
floor, Vodafone House, corner Pitt St/Hopetoun St
North Shore
20th November: 10am-1pm and 5.30pm-7.30pm. Bruce Mason Center, cnr
Hurstmere Rd and the Promenade, Takapuna
Whangarei
21st November, 5.30-7.30pm, TBC
22nd November, 10am-1pm, TBC
Kaikohe
22nd November, 5.30pm-7.30pm, Mid North Motor Inn, Upper
Broadway
23rd November, 10am-1pm, Mid North Motor Inn, Upper Broadway
Excellent from 14-16
And 29th-2nd
19/5/89-Herald
Seas 'rising steadily'
Two Canadian scientists, W. Richard Peltier and Mark Tushingham, reported strong new evidence today that the world's oceans are slowly but steadily rising, a finding they say probably means the globe is warming up. The report prompts visions of NewYork or London being slowly buried under the sea...
7/8/79 (NZ Herald)
Villagers Pray To Halt Lava
A huge lava slick oozed out of a crater on Mt Etna yesterday and threatened villages on the slopes of the volcano, but officials expected the lava to halt before reaching any houses. Villagers prayed yesterday in front of the advancing lava, with bulldozers and army vehicles standing by.
31/10/73
Earthquake Fear If Tapu Not Respected
If tapu land is used as part of the catchment for a water supply at Kaeo, earthquakes would result, Whangaroa county councilors were told yesterday..
Dear Ken-
I notice we had two earthquakes on Friday 9 Nov of decent size
around Wellington, one at 5:56pm and another at 12:48am Sat morning
local time. I couldn't correlate either of these two events to IC
MH or moorise or set times. I tried to calculate IC time by using
the time halfway between moonrise & set, is this correct? I
also notice that these events are outside of your earthquake prone
dates - are all earthquakes triggered by the moon in your view, or
are they just more likely at certain lunar events? I appreciate you
are busy and will understand if you do not have time to reply, but
having got me interested I am following your weather \ earthquake
predictions with great interest!
Thanks & Regards
Kris K.
(Today is the perigee, and last Friday was only a couple of days
away, near enough in time for the moon to be influential. The moon
was also in the northern hemisphere on Friday, and earthquakes
occur more often for NZ when it is in the opposite hemisphere to
us.(heading south, the moon crosses the equator today).
My e-prone dates were more 12th-15th, but one doesn't rule out
other dates. After all, 3 or 4 earthquakes occur each day around
the globe, and the numbers increase around perigee, so rather than
saying one will hit here, today, it's more an increase in
frequency, a numerical probability situation. With better
resources, I believe one could be exact.
As for the timing, the one on the 9th 2 hours before the IC which
was 7.55pm.
The one on the 10th was 2 hours before the moonrise, which was
2.48am. On Nov 2nd, Wellington had a mag. 5.0 shake at 6.06pm,
again roughly 2 hours before moonrise at 8.30pm.
On Oct 9th Porirua had a 4.6mag shake at 8.27am, exactly 2 hours
before moonset.
And Aug 9th had a 4.3mag jolt in Wellington at 1.37am, which was
2.5hours before MH.
The 2 hour lag is clearly some tidal feature of Wellington. And
those are all the earthquakes recently in Wellington area, as
listed on http://www.gns.cri.nz/news/earthquakes/recent_quakes.html
Interesting, too, that all but one in the group were, to the day, a month apart. That and the 2 hour consistency establishes, I think, a strong moon link. Also, look to the tides. On the 9th the earthquake occurred at dead low tide in Wellington harbour, and on the 10th at high tide!-K)
Hello there Ken.
I have enjoyed your bFM appearances and this site. I am trying to get a handle on the basics. All I know at the moment is the 28-day cycle. Can you tell me how we get declinations and perigees from the moon's orbit?
(You need an astrology program or a book called an ephemeris. It gives all that information, as well as a whole lot about the other planets. There's a free shareware called Astrolog which can be got from anywhere, also Moonc52EXE. Look them up on search engines. Otherwise just check out my website for the month, as I list the peaks-K).
Dear Ken
I have been trying to figure out from the program on how to work
out the different moon ages. I understand that at 7.4 Days we get
the First Quarter, but if I add 7.4 days to the New Moon age it
does not coincide with the almanacs. Hence when I try to figure out
the Waxing New Moon age of 3.7 Days, I may be out by six hours or
more. e.g:
New Moon: 15.11.01 @ 16.40 (Local time)
First Qtr: 23.11.01 @ 9.21 (Local Time)
7.7 days have passed not 7.4 days.
So, to calculate the wax of 3.7 days do I go half way of the 7.7
days or do I add 3.7 days to the new moon age. It is very important
to me to be able to work out all the phases and when they occur eg:
New, Wax, 1st Qtr,Waxing Gibbous,Full ,Wane, Last qtr.
This question has been bugging me for some time, a comprehensive
answer will be greatly appreciated.
Victor
(It is very difficult to work out the phases. The "synodic month" is that between the phases, say from 1st Q to the next 1st Q. It is 29.53059 days. But the periods between phases within one month are not exactly equal. Also, the Anomalistic month which is the time between one perigee and the next, is 27.55455 days, and this can alter the synodic month, in other words perigees can delay new or full moons.-K)
To NZ HERALD
Dear Editor
How much longer will NIWA continue to ignore and deny the moon's
influence in causing weather?
To state (Herald, Nov. 10th) that the IPO (Interdecadel Pacific
Oscillation) was in a "positive phase from 1922 to 1944, negative
from 1946 to 1977, then positive from 1978 to 1996" is to repeat
the astronomer's perfect description of the moon's minimum/maximum
nearly-19 year declination cycle.
In case the NIWA person still doesn't know it, the minimum lunar
declination years have been 1922, 1944, 1977, and 1998.
Yet about the IPO, it is claimed "scientists still don't know how
it works.."
There is no mystery about climate change. The moon causes it.
KR
Stormy Anticyclones?
Dear Editor
The Metservice says the stormy season is due to warm bubbles,
spring is the traditional season for thunderstorms and residents
need to watch out for an extra hefty thunderstorm cloud or two
(Herald 9th Nov). Oh? Not what NIWA's spokesperson was saying a few
weeks back, when he proclaimed that "climate conditions for the
last three months of this year are expected to include more
anticyclones than normal, and below average rainfall..(Herald 18th
Oct)".
My small brain is a little confused.
KR
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