Hi. Welcome to the weather ezine, which looks behind the weather and way ahead, and at the way the MOON creates our climate. This revives the ancient mathematical system of longrange weather forecasting, before words like satellite, computer or meteorology were dreamed up.
For Tuesday, November 20th.
Yesterday was the moon's Southern Declination point which is the day the moon reached its south point for November. SD weather is typically dry in the north and calm in the south just before southerlies kick in. Barometer levels are usually up. The South Is. always gets fronts passing through in the days immediately following the SD. The SD is also a time for earthquakes, mainly in the northern hemisphere. These are expected in California and Mexico over the next day or so as these countries are presently on the longitude line of the rising moon.
Sydney has been declared a disaster area after being hit by storms following Thursday's New Moon. Winds gusting at up to 100 mph buffeted Sydney and nearby towns. 150,000 homes lost power. NZ had only a smattering of the bad weather on the weekend, being a only a few showers on Saturday.
As I mentioned last week, when the moon is in the south only shallow depressions can be expected until it crosses to the other hemisphere again, which will be around the 26th.
The heavy rain warnings for Southland put out by the metservice are an over-statement.
The perigee last Monday brought us constant windy conditions all week, now abated.
The 22nd-24th will see some picking up of winds.
Mainly dry weather is expected over the coming week, with occasional showers in Wellington, West Coast areas and Southland on Tuesday and Friday. However the coming weekend looks set to be fine for most of the country.
The hydro lakes are presently getting good rain.
(http://www.jason.oceanobs.com/html/applications/enso/suivi_6ans_uk.html)
Since being launched more than nine years ago in 1992, the satellite TOPEX/POSEIDON has apparently been monitoring the oceans and recording variations in sea level changes in the Pacific Ocean.
Apparently a number of westerly gales during the autumn and winter of 1992 affected the upper layers of the ocean, leading to a rising across the Pacific basin.
Conditions were almost normal again by the end of 1993, followed by another rise in 1994.
Cold La Nina conditions were observed from the end of 1995 to November-December 1996, followed in March 1997 (the moon's 18 degree minimum declination year, sometimes called minor standstill year) by one of the most pronounced warm episodes of the last 50 years. In autumn 1997, sea level anomalies reached over 20 cm at the eastern end of the basin, along with surface temperature anomalies above 4°C, while large negative anomalies at the western end reflected a flattening of the thermocline slope across the tropical basin.
In 2000, the ocean once more returned to normal.
SEALEVEL RISE AT SAIPAN, MARIANAS, PACIFIC OCEAN
http://www.vision.net.au/~daly/index.htm#no
On this website another sea level chart is pictured from the tide gauge at Saipan, north of Guam. There is no sea level rise over 21 years. But sharp dips in sea level during 1983 and 1998. As this and many other tide gauges show, the alarmist claims of recent sea level rise made by the IPCC are quite false.
Last Wednesday the 14th, there was an earthquake at 6.32pm (time of moonrise, local time) 20kms west of Seddon; 4.1mag. It was right on cue as earthquakes were predicted to arrive between 12th-15th. There was also one at Palmerston North on the 16th, at 5am (2 hours before moonrise), 3.9 on the scale.
(thanks to Rod Hull)
Few realize that the solid earth also exhibits tidal behaviour, with bulges on opposite sides of the globe, also driven by the moon.
We can actually measure these tides with tiltmeters and strainmeters.
The earth's surface tilts up to 0.03 microradians in response to the passage of the moon overhead. A tilt of one microradian is the tilt of a solid bar one kilometer (0.6 miles) long with one end raised by the thickness of a dime.
To emphasize how small the tidal tilts are, tiltmeters automatically alert scientists to the possibility of volcanic activity when tilts change more than 0.5 microradians in 5 minutes.
Who would have thought that the moon had that kind of power, not only to be able to cause the world's oceans to bulge, but also to squeeze terra firma twice a day?
Scientists have suggested that these squeezings might influence whether a volcano will erupt or not. The idea is that if a volcano is full of magma, the squeezing at the fortnightly tidal maximum might be just enough to overcome the resistance of the crust, push magma out, and get an eruption going. Once started, the eruption would continue on its own.
More than 25 years ago, a pair of earth scientists compared the records for 680 eruptions that occurred since 1900 and found that "the probability of an eruption is greatest at times of maximum tidal amplitude." In plainer language, volcanoes are more likely to erupt at a fortnightly (or 14-day) "high" tide.
(This correlates to the declination change north to south of the moon.)
Australian Prime Minister on Kyoto
In his first major interview after his weekend election victory, Australian Prime Minister John Howard had this to say about the Kyoto Protocol - Transcript from ABC TV 12 Nov 2001
Interviewer: "On the environment, the headline in the 'Financial Review' today -- "Kyoto deal sidelines Australia." Even Kyoto sceptics, like Japan and Russia, are now amongst 165 countries about to ratify the protocol. How can you continue to justify being so out of step with everyone with virtually the exception of America?"
Prime Minister Howard: "Well, it's a pretty big exception!"
Interviewer: "There's a lot of other countries ..."
Prime Minister Howard: "Yes, but the line Australia takes is that we are in favour of world agreement. We are already meeting some of the targets that have come out of the Kyoto and the Bonn discussions, but we don't believe you can have an effective worldwide agreement without the major industrialised country, which is America, plus the developing countries. This country will suffer if we were to ratify an agreement that didn't include the developing countries, because, in blunt terms, dirty industries, if I can put it that way, would leave Australia, go to developing countries -- and Australian jobs would go with them, and I would -- on that occasion, somebody like Doug Cameron, who's hardly a supporter of mine, would be entitled to say the Government has agreed to the export of manufacturing and industrial jobs from this country and he'd be right, too."
(Doug Cameron is the leader of a major manufacturing trade union)
Note that Howard now includes not only U.S. participation as a condition of Australian involvement, but also the participation of developing countries. In recent negotiations it has become clear that developing countries are eager to collect on the money they would earn from carbon `credits' and `clean development mechanisms' in the short term, but have so far refused to even discuss their involvement in later emission controls. It's clearly a case of `take the cash and run' on their part. While the European Union may be foolish enough to engage in such a one-sided process, the newly re-elected Australian government is clearly not prepared to join them in the rush over an economic cliff.
We're going to get the effects of some cyclones around December 14th -20th, January 22nd -23rd , and February 12th -14th.
North Shore
20th November: 10am-1pm and 5.30pm-7.30pm. Bruce Mason Center, cnr Hurstmere Rd and the Promenade, Takapuna
Whangarei
21st November, 5.30-7.30pm, TBC
22nd November, 10am-1pm, TBC
Kaikohe
22nd November, 5.30pm-7.30pm, Mid North Motor Inn, Upper Broadway
23rd November, 10am-1pm, Mid North Motor Inn, Upper Broadway
Excellent from 29th-2nd
Nov 12th, 2001 - Herald
Clean Bill Of Health for Scott Base Area
The first environmental report on the Ross Sea region of Antarctica says the area remains relatively pristine despite human activity.
Nov 19th, 2001-Herald
Antarctic Seabed Suffering Effects Of Human Presence
..it looks pristine from the surface but hides a seafloor littered with raw sewage, wrecked hvehicles and beer cans. But sewage treatment plants..in the Ross Sea region are expected to be installed by next summer..
(I'm confused, don't know about you..)
5th August 1988 - Herald
Gaseous plumes from volcanoes are contributing to depletion of the earth's protective ozone layer, scientists reported today. They calculated that eruptions spew an average of up to 1.4 million tonnes a year of ozone-destroying gases into the stratosphere, the atmospheric layer in which ozone is found..
23rd November 1976 - Times
20-Year Shiver Lies Ahead
Daily temperatures around the world will drop from 1980 until the year 2000, a meteorologist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology predicts. The drops will be two degrees or less, but people will be physically aware and will use more heating fuel..
9th August 1975
Blame New Ice-Age For The Heat
The heat wave that has gripped most of Europe is - if we are to believe the scientists- simply one of the side-effects of the 'mini-ice age' descending over the Northern Hemisphere. Critics would say the scientists are trying to save face with some fancy double-talk. It has all to do with changes in wind patterns. The theorists hold the Arctic ice cap, for some unknown reason, is growing, creeping slowly southwards, cooling the winds and oceans of the Northern Hemisphere. But now winds from the west, instead of blowing along, have started meandering up and down. And the traditional heat southern Europe gets in August is now being wafted towards Northern Europe on the crest of these wayward winds, according to a researcher of Britain's Meteorological office..
http://members.tripod.com/~bernardboyd0/index.html
http://www.geocities.com/bdfboyd/index.html
http://www.gns.cri.nz/news/earthquakes/recent_quakes.html
http://www.vision.net.au/~daly/ipcc.htm
http://www.vision.net.au/~daly/shame.htm
http://www.vision.net.au/~daly/dalybio.htm
http://www.globalwarming.org
Dear Ken-
On the TV3 website, meteorologist Augy Auer states that the highest sea level pressure ever recorded was at Agata, north central Siberia on 31 December 1968 when the air temperature was -46C. The pressure was above 1070mb for five days & culminated in 1083.8mb. What does this say about global warming?
Geoff C..
(A lot, actually. 1968 was the moon's 28 deg maximum declination year - last century those dates being 1914, 1932, 1950, 1968 and 1987. These years were when the moon, because of its increased latitude transit range, spread, by gravitational pull, more of earth's atmosphere over the earth. This causes a warming effect, and the next warmest years will come around 2005-7. Called the Nutation or Nodal Cycle with the warm peak returning every 18.613 years, it is the only factor responsible for any notion of global warming. Without realizing it, Augy has given us yet another piece of proof positive that the moon creates climate extremes - K)
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