Hi. Welcome to the weather ezine, which looks behind the weather and way ahead, and at the way the MOON creates our climate. This revives the ancient mathematical system of longrange weather forecasting, before words like satellite, computer or meteorology were dreamed up.
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For Tuesday, November 27th.
The moon is still in 1st Quarter phase, which means it is visible only in the afternoon and evening. It'll be rising about half-past 4 this afternoon. Yesterday the moon crossed the equator heading north, which is why southerlies have been evident down south because of the moon's northward drag on air flows. There's a low passing fairly quickly up the country and it'll reach the North Island on Thursday. This front will mainly affect western areas but it will peter out in a day or so. Coming weather should be mainly dry for most northern and eastern areas, right until the end of next week. So I'm picking a dry weekend for most of NZ.
Mainly dry weather was forecast in Auckland for last week, with occasional showers in Wellington, West Coast areas and Southland on Tuesday and Friday, and with the weekend fine for much of the country. In fact afternoons WERE mostly fine, with morning showers in some places. Such is typical of a 1st Quarter moon, which doesn't rise until after lunch. Taranaki, forecast to be very dry by NIWA over November (yes, I do like rubbing that in), has seen 150mm of rain already, which compares with the 30 year average for November of 119mm. I said that November would be wetter than October was, and it sure has been, and December is going to be a wetter month again. But whereas the rain has been relatively spread out over the last two months, December's rain will be heavier over shorter periods. Because of recent rain Marlborough farmers should have no worries about drought this summer, and further south, hydrolake levels have returned to normal.
The first of three cyclones this summer is due to hit our shores around December the 14th. It'll be associated with the New Moon and it'll creep up and down the west coast. From 14th-20th the country will see some stormy weather. The whole summer will be wetter and cooler in most areas right until April. In Auckland they're not going to get those days and days of hot weather until the beginning of March, when there'll be two weeks of it. If holidays are flexible that's the time to take them. Wellington will get a clear spell from 5th-16th December, and also in the 2nd and 3rd week in January. For Christchurch the 9th-17th December will be dry, also the first two weeks of March. Dunedin, too, gets good weather for the first 10 days in March.
Last week's weather around the world has illustrated the tide of the atmosphere. In central Mississipi (on the 24th)a tornado ripped homes from their foundations at 5.20am. Storms also passed through parts of Louisiana, Oklahoma, Missouri and Texas. Lightning killed 5 in Malawi and in Turkey a storm knocked down a mosque, killing two worshippers. All of these happened when the moon was out of the sky. In Auckland any rain came only in the morning and cleared in the afternoon each day between Tuesday and Friday.
The air-tide mirrors the sea-tide which comes in a little later each day (about 48 minutes). The air tidal movement or rain is often noticed when one day succeeds another after a fine spell and cloud is noticed at, say, 6pm. Then on the next day, perhaps at 5.53pm. a greater amount of cloud is noticed and perhaps a greater amount still of cloud the following day at 4.30-5pm; maybe rain; followed by rain on the next day at about the same hour or maybe just cloud until signs of rain disappear after a day or so. It is called a front or a trough and it may or may not be accompanied by a lowering of the barometer. Yet it is the atmospheric tide which is the cause of the trough or front, probably starting with very little variation between high and low atmospheric tide. What happens is that for a day or so the variation between high or low tide gets more pronounced giving rain, then slowly returning to a more even atmospheric depth as moon phases alter. But as for the changing of barometric pressures, this occurs more with declination, which is when the moon treks north and south each month.
Atmospheric pressure is controlled by declination. Temperature also plays a part, due to Boyles Law which links volume and temperature with pressure, but temperature depends on 3 factors - the height of the atmosphere or lack of it (atmospheric tide), the declination of the sun (season) and wind direction (again, moon's declination).
Exceptionally high pressures in NZ can be during the winter months when the Full moon is at the southern part of its monthly orbit (southern declination). Barometric pressures can be lower in our summer or about the months of December, January and February because when the moon is Full it is at its northern declination and its gravitation has taken some of the atmosphere with it, so decreasing the air pressure.
When the moon is New in our summer, it is over the southern hemisphere and the atmosphere is attracted to this side of the earth. The barometer can then be lower because the moon and sun together attract the atmosphere to a higher atmospheric tide and the air pressure on a barometer is reduced. (Molecules of air can expand).
The sun's rays and normal atmospheric depth combine to give us warmth. Where you have less atmospheric depth (at the poles) and a maximum declination of the sun and moon during the southern winter, the cold of space penetrates to ground level. It is the cold of space which is the cause of the polar ice caps, together with no great atmospheric depth. And this is one area where the barometric pressures, which are very low, gives a more accurate indication of atmospheric depth.
When this low air-tide, or thin atmosphere is over NZ, say during the night hours of a new Moon, there can be the condition of frost even if the barometer has a very high reading. On such a night the stars will seem clearer and sounds such as trains and heavy trucks can be heard over long distances.
Global Warming Will make You Sick
As if we're not all sick of HEARING about it, at least one scientist now warns that global warming can make us all sick. Mike Ahearn from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine explains the consequences for our health that "..will be caused by a rise of 1- 5°C over the next century. Direct health effects include changes in mortality and sickness caused by an altered pattern of exposure to thermal extremes. Respiratory illnesses could increase with more photochemical pollutants and aeroallergens in the air. Indirect health effects include a larger area at risk from 'vector borne' infectious diseases such as malaria, dengue fever, schistosomiasis, leishmaniasis, and Lyme disease which are spread by disease-carrying mosquitoes in warmer temperatures. Other examples include various tick-borne viral encephalitis. Climate change is also expected to influence various directly transmitted infections, especially those due to contamination of drinking water and food. This is because many bacteria are sensitive to temperature. Changes in the pattern of rainfall can disrupt surface water and drinking water supplies, which in turn could increase the occurrence of infectious diseases such as cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis, spread via contaminated drinking water. Sea level rise will damage coastal structures and arable land, salinate coastal freshwater aquifers, and affect sewage and wastewater disposal, leading to population displacement and economic disruption and inevitable adverse physical and psychological health consequences".
(http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/globalwarming_health.shtml)
(It beats me why have the learned researchers have failed to observe that a variation in temperatures of MORE THAN 1 - 5°C occurs during the course of every 24 hour day in most places and has done so since the birth of the world 4 billion years ago yet amazingly we don't daily catch all of those lurgies.)
There's a new round of meetings called Climate Change Summit that won't be publicized much, I guess so they can be kept secret and so that the public will not be expected to turn up. They are billed as - Your chance to hear key parties speak on climate change and its implications for New Zealand -
" The New Zealand Government's Ministerial Group on Climate Change is conducting three national Climate Change Summits in Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch between November 29 and December 12 2001. Members of the public are invited to attend these Summits as observers. (yeah, right, held midweek during the day when most people are at work) At the Summits, representatives of key "national interest" organizations (those affected by climate change and/or the Government's intention to ratify the Kyoto Protocol) will have an opportunity to state their views on: * the Government's intention to ratify the Kyoto Protocol on climate change; and * their preferred policy options for New Zealand to manage and reduce its greenhouse gas emissions.
The hearings will give the organisations the opportunity to preview their formal submissions on the Government's response to climate change. The submissions have been called for in response to the first part of the Government's two-stage climate change consultation process.
The closing date for all public submissions is 21 December 2001.
Organisations appearing at the Summits will be selected on the basis of their sector or advocacy interest, their representation of a significant number of people or organisations, and the extent to which they may be affected by climate change and the actions the Government decides to take to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions.
The Climate Change Summits will open with an address by the Convenor of the Ministerial Group, the Hon Pete Hodgson. The proceedings will be heard by Chief Executives of key policy departments, as well as the Climate Change Programme Director Brian Roche.
Details of the Climate Change Summits are:
Wellington
Thursday 29 November 2001, 9.00am - 5.00pm
City Cinema, City Gallery, Civic Square, Cnr Mercer & Victoria Street
Christchurch
Tuesday 4 December, 8.00am - 5.00pm
Meeting Rooms 6 & 7, Christchurch Convention Centre, Kilmore Street
Auckland
Wednesday 12 December, 9.00am - 5.00pm
Hauraki Room, Level 1, Aotea Centre, Auckland City.
Citizens For Truth About Climate Change (CTCC)
I have been approached to help organize a special interest group representing alternative views to global warming, because it seems that only by coming from a group will these views get any decent sort of airing. Objectives would be
1.. To call on the government to explore the real evidence, if any, of global warming, rather than just listening to the opinions of their own employees.
2.. To disseminate information to media and the ministry as it comes to hand that expresses alternative and conflicting research results.
3.. To implore the government not to go blindly down a path that will economically disadvantage the many NZers who represent small businesses and consumers, who are convinced that ratifying the Kyoto Protocol will have a devastating effect on our economy.
4.. To make the government aware that there IS a significant area of doubt and uncertainty as to the supposed 'undeniable fact" of global warming.
5.. To make the government aware that there is a significant number of citizens who are more concerned about truth than politics, who do not want this ratification rushed through just prior to the next election as seems to be the case, and who are calling for more opportunities for public debate.
If you would like to be associated with the above and receive information of further developments, just email me now at ken@weatherman.co.nz with the letters CTCC in the subject box. The email list will be kept confidential.
If you're going by the old Maori fishing calendar, then the time to fish in Auckland on the Waitemata harbour is 3 hours after high tide and finish at low tide. That gives you 3 hours around the midmoon. The Manukau harbour is 3 hours behind, so over there you begin at high tide and finish 3 hours later. And if you're planning to go out there in the next few days and catch fish, from Thursday till Sunday it'll be excellent and won't be that good again till the 14th of December.
April 1st, 1980 - Herald
Danger of Flooding From Ice Disproved
All coastal areas of the earth's continents may be flooded by the world's oceans if the Antarctica ice melts, scientists are apt to predict. But the latest findings of Soviet scientists in Antarctica give reason to believe that this catastrophe would never happen. A Soviet team using a Russian-devised electric thermal drill working at the American station camp Jane Nine extracted a sample of ice from the bottom of the Ross Shelf ice, over 400 metres thick in the area of the station. The ice was salty to the taste and its structure showed that it had been formed by the freezing of seawater. This demonstrated that while the Ross Ice Shelf was melting at the edges, even more ice was being formed on the bottom. So any expected warm-up of Earth's climate would not destroy West Antarctica ice."
15th October 1971 - Herald
Takes Weather Seriously
A man who has been angered by wrong weather forecasts has threatened to explode a bomb in the Tokyo Meteorological Agency tomorrow.."
20th August 1983 - Times
Deep Depression
British weather forecasters have come in for a drenching in a recent survey which shows that their predictions are less than 42% correct. Forecasts were found to be right on only 39 out of 93 days, and doubtful on a further 14 days. The results contradict a claim by the meteorological office themselves that their short-term forecasts were 85% right.."
http://members.tripod.com/~bernardboyd0/index.html
http://www.geocities.com/bdfboyd/index.html
http://www.gns.cri.nz/news/earthquakes/recent_quakes.html
http://www.vision.net.au/~daly/ipcc.htm
http://www.vision.net.au/~daly/shame.htm
http://www.vision.net.au/~daly/dalybio.htm
http://www.globalwarming.org
Hi Ken,
I have to admit I was intrigued as much as disappointed by the 'consultation' on Monday. No doubt the organisers, learning from earlier events, kept everything controlled to avoid people asking awkward questions or presenting information which contradicted the facts which were presented.
I have come across this attitude before and it is very difficult to deal with.
Clearly the GHG party have made up their minds about what is best for us, or more importantly for some political flag waving at the next climate conference.
It will be interesting to see if your suggestion for further debate on the causes of weather lasts longer than the time it took them to wipe it off the white board.
I have to admit that to me, the whole event is rather cynical in its treatment of the subject as a foregone conclusion, and the consultation documentation is riddled with conjecture and misinformation.
I don't know if you've seen today's (22/11/01) Herald, but you may want to add the front
page story about dinosaur extinction to your collection as further evidence that 'most scientists' who support global warming haven't got a clue what they're talking about, (or choose to ignore the evidence which doesn't support their cause).
Since we weren't around Sixty Five million years ago and as New Zealand was about 1100km closer to the South Pole how is it that the temperatures were several degrees warmer?
Perhaps this was a result of dinosaur flatulence?
Ray H.
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