Hi. Welcome to the weather ezine, which looks behind the weather and way ahead, and at the way the MOON creates our climate. This revives the ancient mathematical system of longrange weather forecasting, before words like satellite, computer or meteorology were dreamed up.
For Tuesday, December 11th.
Yesterday, Monday, the moon crossed the equator heading south. Whenever it does that, or is at a declination, a change occurs, whether wind, clearing or unsettlement. As the weekend brought showers, the change was for the better. We are now entering a settled period which should continue in Auckland until the 14th. I know the forecasters have predicted showers for Auckland all week, but barring the odd passing drop, I would expect mainly dry weather until Friday.
From last week - "the weekend will see some more showers, mainly on Saturday around lunchtime. That happened. Then: "next week will be mainly sunny".. Yesterday we saw high cirrus ice clouds, signifying the passing of most of the frontal system. So it indeed does look like a few days of clear conditions. Next week I expect rain rain rain. For most areas, when totals are in at the end of the month December will prove to have been wetter than November was. Canterbury has had more rain in the last two months than all year. Marlborough hills are now lush green. The hydrolakes are up 40% more than normal. Northland has had more than its December average already and Auckland has had about half its December average. I think it'll get its next half next week.
Book your ferry crossing wisely.
Southerlies (avoid): 20th-21st, 25th.
Northerlies (okay): 12th-19th, 23rd-24th, 27th-30th.
(courtesy John Daly)
The greenhouse industry is quick to exploit all-time 'hot' records when they can find them, but we never hear of the all-time 'cold' records. To correct that imbalance, here's one from my home patch here in Tasmania. In November this year, Tasmania experienced the coldest November in 33 years. In particular, Launceston and Fingal in the northern half of the island recorded the all-time coldest temperatures for November on 18th November. This on the heels of a similar all-time cold record set in Launceston for May this year. The first three days of December, the start of summer, saw households all across Tasmania forced to light up their domestic wood fires! December started out very cold and the cold weather there is expected to continue. A big fuss was made of Central England during October, but will anyone make a fuss about Tasmania - in an area every bit as big as central England? NZ had a very cold frosty July over much of the South Island and in many inland and southern North Island regions. The national average temperature for July dropped to 0.9°C below the 1961-90 normal, and was the lowest since 1969. It looks like this summer will be cooler until March in all districts. Yesterday a snow alert was issued for the Cardrona skifields.
From a Netherlands newspaper -"ANKARA - The eastern part of Turkey struggles with the severest cold wave in twenty years. 700 villages are inaccessible because of heavy snowfall. Yesterday night the temperature in the province of Erzurum was falling to 34 degrees below freezing point."
So where's all the warming of the planet? Auckland's monthly temperatures have exactly conformed to the 30 year national average over the whole year. The new way to determine global temperature is to use satellites to measure the temperature of the lower atmosphere, giving the Earth a uniform global sweep, oceans included, with no cities to create a false warming bias. This second method, used since January 1979, is accurate to within one hundredth of a degree, and is clearly the best record we have.
And according to NOAA satellites, October/November 2001 globally was not even the warmest in the 23-year satellite record, let alone in the last 150 years. It was merely the 6th warmest. October 2001 came in at 0.145°C above the long-term average. Five years were warmer - 1979 (0.148°C), 1987 (0.234°C), 1988 (0.149°C), 1990 (0.154°C), and the big El Nino year 1998 (0.35°C) when the moon was at its 18 degree minimum declination. The greenhouse industry is now falling over itself trying to find new 'all-time records', usually based on faulty data, to frighten governments and the public into believing that things are bad, bad, bad.
If I wanted an operation I would go to a doctor with a proven track record of success, and not one who continually faltered. As global warming is being thrust down our throats as fact, I must spring to question the credibility of these spokespeople. Do they have the answers? The experts say the computers used for weather modeling do provide useful guidance. The same experts are uncertain at this time of writing as to whether or not Queenstown will see flooding and what the weather will be for Christmas day, less than two weeks away.
3/12/01 (Herald): "Whangarei "A & P Show organizers waived the gate fee to lure visitors during three days of sodden rain. Instead of an expected 15,000 it would have been lucky to have scraped 2000. Because of the deluge organizers called this year's event a complete and utter disaster"..(Why didn't those with the computer models see it coming and warn them? The same could be said for the washout called the Ellerslie Flower show)
17/8/01 (Herald): "The country will face even worse power shortages next winter because predicted spring rains may not fill the South Island's emptying hydrolakes". (Wrong..the lakes now have 40% more water than normal for this time of year).
10/12/01 (Herald): "Shopkeepers and homeowners in Havelock North spent yesterday cleaning up after surface flooding caused by sudden rain, and the intense falls have damaged summer fruit crops".
10/12/01 (National Radio): "heavy rain has damaged grain crops around the country. Barley has been knocked over by heavy rain in Manawhatu. This has been the 3rd planting this season." (again, why weren't these seen on the computer models - the ones used so confidently to predict global warming - and appropriate warnings given?) If they are right sometimes and wrong sometimes, and we have no way of telling either way, and their opinion is no better than that of any random person stopped in the street.
>From Climate Science Magazine, April 1987
"Predictive signals for temperature Changes
(Goesta Wollin, John E. Sanders, and David B. Ericson, Columbia University)
The preliminary results of our study (to be published in Ski Area Management, May/June), of forecasting the temperature trend for the Northern hemisphere indicate that the trend for the years to AD 2010 or so will decrease rather than increase as is generally predicted. We predict that the cooling trend since 1950 will continue, with short-term warm fluctuations superimposed, and that the next ice-age will come within 1,000-2,000 years.
August 11th, 2000 - Herald
"Don't Make Plans For Sept 21, 2030
Scientists have spotted a small asteroid that they say has a 1-in-500 chance of hitting the Earth in 30 years - far greater odds than any similar object ever discovered. Believed to be 20m-70m long, more than 23,000 tonnes of rocks could come hurtling through the atmosphere.."
If you want to see Nelson's weather daily, check out Cliff Nighy's site, click.. http://cliff.nighy.tripod.com/nelson/view.htm
http://www.gns.cri.nz/news/earthquakes/recent_quakes.html
http://www.vision.net.au/~daly/ipcc.htm
http://www.vision.net.au/~daly/shame.htm
http://www.vision.net.au/~daly/dalybio.htm
http://www.globalwarming.org
http://members.tripod.com/~bernardboyd0/index.html
http://www.geocities.com/bdfboyd/index.html
Hi Ken,
Just a short odd question. Do you think the moon or planets have any effect on death? Why I ask is that there has been a number of high profile murders in NZ in the last week, 1st - 8th Dec, my brother-in -law passed away & now I hear in media that Sir Peter Blake has been murdered. Does the moon influence people's behaviour to become erratic & kill?.
regards,
Bert
(Yes, I think so, as regards planets and death, but it would be hard to quantify. It is known that people bleed more over the Full moon in surgery. Sir Peter Blake died on the perigee - moon closest to earth. Was he mood-sensitive..did he react too quickly?..we'll never know for sure. But then, it could be that quality that makes a leader and his action scared them off so I think I would call him a hero.- K)
To Brenda Wallace,
Convenor of Climate Summit,
cc to Helen Clark
Hi Helen and Brenda
I hope you will do me the courtesy of reading my whole message.
I think you people should have allowed Citizens for Truth about Climate Change (aka Ken Ring) to speak at the global warming Summit on 12 December. The system Ken Ring has developed appears to be more accurate, for predictions longer than two days ahead, than our own Metservice is able to muster.
For example, Ken was saying months ago that rain would be falling in the South Island by now whereas the Metservice told us without any confidence that rain wouldn't fall until sometime "next year.": Ken argues that with this sort of track record our scientists and forecasters are completely unable to tell us about long-term global warming. He points to Nasa websites giving temperature observations from satellite which apparently contradict the general view that the planet is warming.
Read his book, view his website (http://www.predictweather.com) and read the weekly weather ezines he sends out.
If you do you will see his system is not some sort of hocus pocus but a well thought-out and solid rationale and an alternative view that appears to make a hell of a lot of sense.
Ken is probably so vocal because he is being shut out by the whole weather establishment which unfortunately does not seem to want to listen to someone not "of their ilk."
Thanks for taking the time.
Cheers
Paul D.
(Thanks Paul.-K)
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