Hi. Welcome to the weather ezine, which looks behind the weather and way ahead, and at the way the MOON creates our climate. This revives the ancient mathematical system of longrange weather forecasting, before words like satellite, computer or meteorology were dreamed up.
For Tuesday, December 18th.
Two days after the southern declination (furthest point south). Two days after New Moon. Fishing is always better 3-4 days after the New Moon day. So is the planting of new seedlings. At this time the moon gets between Earth and the sun, sheltering us from the sun's solar wind of electromagnetic radiation. The New Moon to First Quarter period is generally fairly settled once the initial rains have passed. Westerlies are more common around a New Moon time, with the winds low to the water.
Around declination periods, like now, weather stays consistent for a few days, as the weather systems become slower moving. Whatever the weather was on the SD day will persist for a few more days. That's the pattern. It generally rains around the New Moon, and this one is no exception. New Moon rains come mainly overnight, when the moon is gone from the sky, leaving a depleted atmosphere above the horizon. December is already a wetter month than November was in some parts of the country, and the tail end of the tropical depression which is now visiting the country will drift its way down country until it peters itself out around the 20th.
"The weather..packs in on Friday. Then December will close down weather-wise, as far as long spells of fine weather goes. And a cyclone (tropical depression), the first of three this summer, is due to hit our shores around the 14th." Well, da-da, that happened. The Christmas-In-The-Park concert on Saturday night was an avoidable washout which was a huge pity as many stayed away from what is usually a great well-run occasion for a worthy cause.
FOR DECEMBER AND JANUARY
Southerlies tend to cause choppy seas and swells. Northerlies blow the sea flat.
DECEMBER
Southerlies (avoid): 20th-21st, 25th, 31st.
Northerlies (okay): 12th-19th, 23rd-24th, 27th-31.
JANUARY
Southerlies (avoid): 8th, 16th, 24th-26th.
Northerlies (okay): 1st-7th, 11th-15th, 19th-23rd, 27th-31st.
Here, for main centres, is weather for Christmas Day, Boxing Day, New Years Eve and New Years Day (updated).
Auckland: 25th: dry and sunny, 26th: scattered morning showers, 31st: fine, 1st: odd showers.
Wellington: 25th: dry, 26th: fine and showers, 31st: sunny, 1st: dry.
Christchurch: 25th: fine, 26th: showers, 31st: sunny, 1st: sunny.
Blenheim: 25th: mainly fine, 26th: fine and showers, 31st: sunny, 1st: sunny.
Gisborne: 25th: showery, 26th: sunny, 31st: sunny with cloud, 1st: dry and cloudy.
New Plymouth: 25th: sunny, 26th: showers, 31st: odd showers and sun, 1st: odd showers.
Rotorua: 25th: sunny, 26th: sunny with odd showers, 31st: sunny, 1st: cloudy but dry.
Boxing day - iffy weather in most places.
New Years Eve - mainly dry in most places except New Plymouth, Westport and south of the South Island.
THE GATHERING
Abel Tasman park
December 25th-January 1st:
mainly fine over most days,
odd showers on 26th, 30th and 31st,
nights clear.
EARLY IN 2002
Tauranga Blues, Brews and BBQ
Mt Maunganui:
10th January.
Fine and sunny.
The Big Day Out
January 18th:
Mainly dry but light showers at night.
Auckland Folk Festival,
Kumeu showgrounds,
25th-28th January:
First two days: fine and sunny.
Sunday: possible morning showers plus fine periods.
Monday: same as Sunday
Jazz and Blues Streetfest
Mission Bay,
Feb 2:
dry and sunny
Report Plays Down Global Warming in Antarctic Ice Melt
October 8 - The massive West Antarctic Ice Sheet may be headed for a complete meltdown in a process that was triggered thousands of years ago and not as a result of global warming, a new study suggests. (Associated Press) >/P>
Melting Arctic Slab to Lift Sea Levels 20 Feet
October 7 - A melting ice sheet half the size of Alaska has scientists predicting a sea level rise of about 20 feet over the next 7,000 years (3 inches per century), scientists from the University of Washington and the University of Maine report.
NASA Images Show Shrinking Ozone Hole
October 1 - NASA images reveal the ozone hole is shrinking. Paul Newman, atmospheric physicist at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, says that the hole is still really big, but it is slightly smaller than last year.Hidden Health Benefits of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation. From Science Magazine August 17 issue, The article claims that more people die from air pollution than from traffic accidents in New York City, Mexico City, Sao Paulo, and Santiago, Chile, and that reducing fossil fuel use to cut greenhouse gas emissions would therefore have the additional immediate benefit of saving lives and improving health. There are several problems with the "study." First, improving air quality has already been accomplished in cities like New York, where fossil fuels are still consumed in huge quantities, but few people now die because of air pollution. And in most of those cities, the worst air pollution comes from things like using charcoal or cow dung for cooking.
Glazier Meltdown a Shock For Scientists
(NZ Herald, December 13)
The Pine Island, Thwaites and smith Glaciers, which account for about one third by volume of the West Antarctica Ice Sheet, have lost as much as 45mm of thickness over the past 10 years. Collectively they have lost nearly 157 cu km of ice to ocean, enough to raise global sea levels by 0.04cm. (0.04cm? That's half a millimeter - in 10 years! I would have thought scientists were expecting some rise anyway, so were they shocked because it was so TINY, or were they really shocked at what they consider to be a tearaway rise of half a millimeter?)
http://uk.cambridge.org/economics/lomborg/
http://www.gns.cri.nz/news/earthquakes/recent_quakes.html
http://www.vision.net.au/~daly/ipcc.htm
http://www.vision.net.au/~daly/shame.htm
http://www.vision.net.au/~daly/dalybio.htm
http://www.globalwarming.org
http://members.tripod.com/~bernardboyd0/index.html
http://www.geocities.com/bdfboyd/index.html
ALMANAC HARD TO GET IN SOME TOWNS
I have had reports that my Weather Almanac 2002 (publisher Hazard Press) is hard to obtain because shops seem to be running out early, or are not ordering enough. Yes, this is an unabashed advertisement, and yes, it does make an ideal gift for the person who is sportsminded, a gardener, a traveller or fisherman. You'll find an easy to read format, daily weather predictions two days per page including weather maps and moon information, for every day of 2002. Individual towns are listed for every day, plus an inventory for each month and 5-year ahead monthly rainfall projections for all areas up to and including year 2006. 230 pages, A5 paperback size.
To order yours, I do have copies I sell from my office.
Please send a cheque to
Ken Ring,
P.O.Box 60197
Titirangi,
Auckland.
Sorry, no credit cards.
Cost: $NZ27 + 2 postage.
There's still time!
Contact
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