Hi. Welcome to the weather ezine, which looks behind the weather and way ahead, and at the way the moon creates our climate. This revives the ancient mathematical system of longrange weather forecasting, before words like satellite, computer or meteorology were dreamed up.
For Saturday, December 22nd.
The 1st Quarter comes tomorrow, Sunday. From New Moon to 1st Q is always a settled time, traditionally the most settled for the month. Today the moon is in apogee and is approaching the equator from the south, which are two further signs of rather settled weather.
We are in a calm phase right now. The tail end of the tropical depression which visited our shores between the 14th-20th has all but petered out, and there won't be another like it until January 22nd. You could actually see the depression going down country on the east side if you were watching the weather on the TV weathermaps over the last week.
But we're not finished with the rain yet this month. In the north I have a few light morning showers possible this weekend but the days right up till the 29th will see sunshine just like today, although some days will have passing showers as well.
A totally dry day should be next Tuesday (Xmas day) for most areas, so any haymaking still to do may have to wait till then or until the end of January.
In the north I have some showers in the morning after Boxing day, and then on the 27th and 28th they get a bit heavier, and they're finally gone by the last day of the month.
The 29th is the day to not plan anything for, as I'm expecting a front to come through right over the whole country, but which should be gone by New Years Eve.
The South Island, too, sees bad weather likely on Boxing Day and the 29th, starting to clear by 30th.
On New Years day there'll be some cloud around, but I think it'll actually rain then only in Manawhatu, Horowhenua and Southland.
For most of the north, Rotorua, Gisborne, Hawkes Bay, Taupo, and Wellington, there will be mainly sunny weather for the first two weeks of January with the exception of January 6th/7th, when there'll be some midday rain.
The official forecasters said that October through to December would be drier than normal. They were wrong. Only on this website was very wet weather predicted for those months.
Now they have published that the rest of summer will be hotter for most of the country.
Once again I beg to differ.
For instance, for this January, I predict Southland will see a repeat of last year's conditions; cooler and wetter than average.
Canterbury and Dargaville will also be wetter and cooler.
Drier than average areas will be the far North, Bay of Plenty, Manawhatu and Marlborough.
All other areas will receive average rainfall over the rest of summer.
Marlborough need not panic - the area will receive average rain over February and more than average in March, so threat of drought will be absent.
Auckland will see average rainfall for January and February, and below average temperatures.
The first month of spring will be wetter for most areas in NZ, then drier for the remainder months.
So where will the droughts be? This summer, overall, only the Bay of Plenty looks likely to be significantly drier than normal and it will be the place to watch. From the beginning of January enough rains to reach a monthly average do not fall again there until next July.
Interesting that the recent subsidance in Waihi that caused houses to fall into a gaping hole in old understreet mine-workings, happened on the day before New Moon, early in the morning around moonrise, which is when earthquakes mainly occur. No earthquakes were reported anywhere in the vicinity, but clearly something caused the subsidence.
Events like that don't just come out of the blue. And the fact that it was on or just before the New Moon leads one to wonder if there was or not a very small shake but one that the authorities are keeping quiet about so they don't have to pay out on earthquake insurance.
I say this because on that day there were an unusually high number of earthquakes around the globe, as you'd expect around New Moon. They struck south of Australia, Fiji, from Mexico to Argentina, in China, New Guinea and in Alaska. NZ was certainly in the firing line too, as on the next day one occurred 20kms NE of Wellington, indicating earthquake activity in our latitudes.
I would be interested to hear from any Waihi residents who may have felt a shake on the day of the subsidance, but thought nothing of it at the time.
Bookmakers have been slashing the odds on a white Christmas with forecasters predicting snow this weekend.
William Hill cut the odds on snowfall in Glasgow from 11/4 to 6/4 as Britain braces itself for Arctic winds.
London and Manchester are now quoted at 11/4 with Cardiff the 7/2 outsider.
Snow showers are expected in the east of England and Scotland this weekend - shortening the odds for a coming white Christmas.
Coral is offering odds of 6/5-on for snow on December 25, the shortest price for 20 years.
Birmingham won't be having a white Christmas even if it snows, because the city's Met Office equipment can't differentiate between snow, sleet and rain.
In my Weather Almanac (UK) 2001 (pub. by GothicPress, Glastonbury) one can read that many areas, like London, Cardiff and Birmingham may see some snow flurries today (22/12/01) but which will be a false alarm.
On Xmas day greater London will be cloudy, with no snow until 5th January.
Cardiff may see snow on 27th January but apart from today, no more before.
I think to get to see snow on Xmas day one will probably have to go to Norway.
UK readers of this story may be able to make a bit of cash at the bookies..but don't blame me if you lose!
BAD WEATHER COMING TO THE USA?
I'd put my money MORE on the occurrence of about 10 days of ice storms, snow and freezing rain which I expect to hit the continental United states on or around the 27th of December.
The first week of January could be extremely cold in Montana and Washington.
Citrus growers in Florida may suffer from substantial damage to the multimillion dollar citrus crop as temperatures will sink to minus levels.
Texas, too, could be in the grip of an Arctic front in that week and Atlanta will probably get high winds.
In Oregon, temperatures may plunge, and snow in Minnesota may cut driving visibility to near zero.
Why?
All because of the perigee on January 2nd, sitting in the middle of the worst phase period: the interval between Full Moon (30th Dec.) and Last quarter (6th Jan.).
In most places in NZ, Christmas Day will be fine and dry.
Boxing day will be iffy weather in most places.
New Years Eve should be mainly dry in most places except for New Plymouth, Westport and in the south of the South Island.
The Gathering
Abel Tasman park,
December 25th-January 1st:
mainly fine over most days,
odd showers on 26th, 30th and 31st,
nights clear.
Tauranga Blues, Brews and BBQ
Mt Maunganui:
10th January.
Fine and sunny.
The Big Day Out
January 18th:
Mainly dry but possibility of light passing showers at night.
Auckland Folk Festival,
Kumeu showgrounds,
25th-28th January:
First two days: fine and sunny.
Sunday: possible morning showers plus fine periods.
Monday: same as Sunday
Jazz and Blues Streetfest
Mission Bay,
Feb 2:
dry and sunny
Waitangi Day
February 6th,
Bay of Islands;
fine and sunny
ALMANAC HARD TO GET IN SOME TOWNS
I have had reports that my Weather Almanac 2002 (publisher Hazard Press) is hard to obtain because shops seem to be running out early, or are not ordering enough. If you need one, I do have copies which I sell from my office. Send a cheque to:
Ken Ring,
P.O.Box 60197
Titirangi,
Auckland.
Sorry folks, no credit cards.
You'll find daily weather predictions two days per page including weather maps and moon information for every day of 2002. Individual towns are listed for every day, plus an inventory for each month, and 5-year ahead monthly rainfall projections for all NZ areas up to and including year 2006. 230 pages, A5 paperback size. $NZ27 + 2 postage.
COOK STRAIT CROSSINGS FOR DECEMBER AND JANUARY
Southerlies tend to cause choppy seas and swells.
Northerlies blow the sea flat.
DECEMBER
Southerlies (avoid): 20th-21st, 25th, 31st.
Northerlies (okay): 12th-19th, 23rd-24th, 27th-31.
JANUARY
Southerlies (avoid): 8th, 16th, 24th-26th.
Northerlies (okay): 1st-7th, 11th-15th, 19th-23rd, 27th-31st.
SUBMISSION TO CLIMATE CHANGE COMMITTEE, RE KYOTO PROTOCOL
A group of us have put together a submission which we sent on Friday to the Ministry of the Environment, urging them to consider an alternative viewpoint, which is that the science behind NZ's decision to ratify is very shonky and mainly just a heap of nonsense. If you would like a copy of what we sent, just send me a reply to this email, simply typing in the subject box "send submission".
Contact
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