Hi if you have just joined this newsletter, which looks behind the weather and way ahead and at the way the moon creates our climate. This revives the ancient mathematical system of longrange weather forecasting, before words like satellite, computer or meteorology were ever dreamed up.
For Wednesday, January 2nd.
We are 3 days after Full moon, 2 days after northern declination and right on perigee. From Full Moon to Last Quarter the moon is out of the sky in mid afternoon. It is the most dangerous time of the month. If rain or snow are about they are more likely to fall at this time. Tornadoes, whirlwinds, thunderstorms all occur more during this phase period. However, if none of these nasties are about, the sun will burn much hotter. The reason is the low atmospheric tide caused when the moon is out of the sky. With the protection of the atmosphere diminished, cold or heat from space can more easliy enter and either condense clouds or allow in more of the sun's heat.
Whenever there is the three: Full Moon, declination and perigee, extreme weather always results around the globe. Full Moons are more destructive in the northern hemisphere winter, but not so much down here in January. In our summer the New Moon is our nemesis. We are relatively secure, then, until the New Moon of the 14th, which will be coupled with a southern declination happening on the 13th. By the 16th the ensuing southerlies will bring much rain to the South Island and which will reach the North Island around 17th. We have only to look to last month when the moon was New and at southern declination, around the 15th, to see what bad weather can result.
Cylones form on perigees, and this perigee (January 2nd) is no exception. Cyclone Waka is at present battering Tonga and Fiji but is not likely to affect us. Waka whipped up 230km/hr hurricane-force winds and produced heavy rain over Niufo'ou Island.
Cyclonic weather with associated strong winds that accompany perigees have been mainly hitting the northern hemisphere where thopusands of homes remain without electricity after gale-force winds and wintry showers have battered parts of Britain and Northern Ireland. Winds of up to 85mph have brought power lines and trees down in Scotland, while snow and sleet have made driving conditions difficult. The perigee coinciding with the northern declination has meant that the moon has been affecting the northernmost regions of the globe the most.
As the perigee passes, the cold weather gripping the northern hemisphere should ease.
Down here at the other end of the world, the perigee has brought intense heat, and in some cases, like Sydney, strong winds as well. The West Coast of the South Island today has experienced a hefty thunderstorm, with rivers running high into Canterbury.
Big earthquakes have occurred in Antarctica (mag. 6) and in the Philippines (mag 6.3) yesterday, the 1st.
Avalanches have occurred in the last days in France and southern Poland, with 6 feared dead.
Over the past few years, perigee has occurred on the orbit path while the moon has been in the northern hemisphere. The point of perigee has altered on this section of the orbit but has not advanced to the other 180° of the southern hemisphere section of the orbit yet - something that will happen in 2003.
WORLD WEATHER HAS BEEN CHANGING
When the moon's declination was 18 degrees, around 1996/7, called minimum declination, depressions stayed longer and troughs took longer to pass over the country. Anticyclones, too, remained for longer periods and in the winter gave longer frost periods. Also at that time, when the moon was at northern or southern declination, the stationary period for a depression or an anticyclone was considerably longer and they moved away more slowly. Winters and summers in polar regions were colder because the atmosphere was thicker where the moon was, between the tropics, and the polar regions had a much reduced atmosphere.
As the moon works her way up to 2005-7 (the maximum declination years), our depressions, troughs and anticyclones will tend to get shorter, storms pass more quickly and frosts and snowfall periods will not linger as much.
This is because at minimum declination (1996/7) the moon's movement is so quick, for the 36/37 degrees from north to south takes place in about half a month, whilst in 2005 the same north/south movement of 56/57 degrees will be taking the same half-month. In 1996 the moon's daily advance northwards at the equator was a leisurely 4 degrees or so. By 2005 the moon will be covering 56 degrees of latitude in the same period of time, and its daily advance at the equator will be a quicker 6 degrees or so.
This climactic change is barely perceptible, but there are some who will shake their heads and say 20 years ago there were more summery days in a row and longer winter frosts. Indeed they are correct.
For this January, we predicted Southland would see a repeat of last year's conditions; cooler and wetter than average. Canterbury and Dargaville would also be wetter and cooler. Already Southland and Canterbury are seeing cooler and wetter weather, unfortunately for campers.
Drier than average areas will be the Far North, Bay of Plenty, Manawhatu and Marlborough. All other areas should receive average rainfall over the rest of summer. Marlborough will receive average rain over February and more than average in March, so threat of drought will be absent.
For most of the north, Rotorua, Gisborne, Hawkes Bay, Taupo, and Wellington, there will be mainly sunny weather for the first two weeks of January with the exception of January 6th/7th, when there'll be some midday rain.
Around the 6th/7th, too, Sydney should get good rainfall which should see the end of the devastating fires.
Auckland will see average rainfall overall for January and February, and below average temperatures. The first month of spring will be wetter for most areas in NZ, then drier for the remainder months.
The potential for earthquakes will be now till the 3rd, 12th-14th, and 27th-30th.
Using the Metservice's own figures, I daily noted the printed maximum temperatures from the back page of the NZ Herald and averaged them at the end of each month. I did this every day throughout the WHOLE year. The results were then compared with Metservice's (from their website) 30 year monthly averages for Auckland. Rainfall figures were taken from the same sources.
Results?
Rainfall was slightly above average overall, mainly due to a significantly wetter May and December. Temperatures were almost exactly average for each month, the exceptions being only August and October. Unfortunately for the scaremongerers, overall the year was slightly cooler and wetter than average. This means that during 2001 global warming mysteriously bypassed Auckland.
The Bay of Plenty still looks likely to be significantly drier than normal and will be the place to watch. From now until July not enough rain falls there to reach each monthly average. January and February each see about 6 rain days, with about 10 in March and 5 in April, but most of those days also see considerable sunshine hours.
Tauranga Blues, Brews and BBQ:
Mt Maunganui
10th January
Fine and sunny.
The Big Day Out:
January 18th
Mainly dry but possibility of light passing showers at night.
Auckland Folk Festival:
Kumeu showgrounds
25th-28th January
First two days: fine and sunny.
Sunday: possible morning showers plus fine periods.
Monday: same as Sunday.
Jazz and Blues Streetfest:
Mission Bay
Feb 2
dry and sunny.
Waitangi Day:
Bay of Islands
February 6th
fine and sunny.
ALMANAC HARD TO GET IN SOME TOWNS
I have had reports that my Weather
Almanac 2002 (publisher Hazard Press) is hard to obtain because shops seem to be running out early, or are not ordering enough. You'll find daily weather predictions two days per page including weather maps and moon information for every day of 2002. (For example the current bad weather on the West Coast is right there on page 11). Individual towns are listed for every day, plus an inventory for each month, and 5-year ahead monthly rainfall projections for all NZ areas up to and including year 2006.
If you need one, I do have copies which I sell from my office.
Send a cheque to: Ken Ring, P.O.Box 60197 Titirangi, Auckland and I'll mail one immediately. Sorry folks, no credit cards. 230 pages, A5 paperback size.
$NZ27 + 2 postage.
COOK STRAIT CROSSINGS FOR JANUARY
Southerlies typically cause choppy seas and swells whereas northerlies tend to blow the sea flat.
Southerlies (avoid): 8th, 16th, 24th-26th.
Northerlies (okay): 1st-7th, 11th-15th, 19th-23rd, 27th-31st.
SUBMISSION TO CLIMATE CHANGE COMMITTEE, RE KYOTO PROTOCOL
A group of us have put together a submission which we sent on Friday to the Ministry of the Environment, urging them to consider an alternative viewpoint, which is that the science behind NZ's decision to ratify is very shonky and mainly just a heap of nonsense. If you would like a copy of what we sent, just send me a reply to this email, simply typing in the subject box "send submission".
Hello,
I am a teacher with only a general science background.
I have just read James Lovelock's Gaia : the practical science of planetary medicine and I am curious to know your opinion of his theories, in particular his theory that photosynthesing algae in the ocean control the cloud cover because (as I understand it) they emit a gas containing sulphur.
His theory is that Gaia is a self-regulating planet and the transmission of sulphur from ocean to land is part of this but he is not sure whether this can be sustained in the face of global warning.
I find your web site and your theories on the influence of the moon very interesting.
Regards Elizabeth
(I don't know the work you quote so can't express an opinion on it. But I can't see how algae can control cloud cover when jetstreams above the troposhere travelling along at up to 500mph can change cloud cover within an hour. However, I would entirely agree that the planet is self-regulating and that all living systems fall into the rhythm of this.
As I don't believe there is any global warming, not now or ever, apart from a recycling change over 18.613 years due to the changing lunar declination, there is nothing to my mind that needs to be sustained. Over the longer haul of tens of thousands of years there has been no appreciable climate change either apart from polar shift, which explains why the so-called last Ice Age, centred near Chicago saw snow and ice over Mexico and the Mojave Desert.
I think one could safely surmise that deep-sea algae spitting out sulphur had very little to do with that.- K)
Ken,
This was in our local rag, might have some Kyoto appeal..
"FIGURES DO NOT ADD UP
A former Swiss thermal dynamics engineer who is living in Cromwell believes some of the figures bandied about relating to climate change do not add up. Otto Muller has a five-year background in flue analysis of gas and coal-fired power stations in Switzerland. He said New Zealand farmers should not be penalised by the Kyoto Protocol, but be paid by overseas countries for their efficient method of using pasture to convert green-house gases. Some of the climate change initiatives were driven by scientists who had hijacked the green policy of some governments around the globe, he said. "I think one of the endangered species is the homo sapiens with a sense of proportion". Recent figures from the New Zealand Meat and Wool Board had shown the country's farm animals were releasing 1.1 million tonnes of methane into the atmosphere, Mr Muller said. This was only 0.8 percent of the carbondioxide (C02) being absorbed by the pastures through photosynthesis. "For removing C02 forests are not as efficient as pasture". The country's grass had the ability to absorb 146 million tonnes of carbondioxide each year, which should be included in the Kyoto Protocol as a carbon credit, he said. "Our pasture system represents a giant carbon sink that should obtain carbon credits rather than carbon tax". To put the whole equation into perspective, New Zealands ecosystem could absorb one third of the CO2 being released by the highly industrialised nation of France".
Cheers,
Owen.
Hi Ken.
Just a couple of programs you or your readers may find interesting..
http://www.palmpilotarchives.com/calculators-_misc_2.html
MoonInfo! is a lunar calendar for PalmPilot OS users showing rise\set times, phase, distance (but not declination).
http://clysmic.com/lunabar/
This is a desktop program, a little on the mystical side, but with useful information about phase, rise\set\overhead times. The best thing about this program is that it puts a picture of the current phase into your system tray for easy reference.
I find your weather e-zine very interesting and informative, please keep up the good work.
Thanks & Regards
Kris
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