Hi if you have just joined this newsletter, which looks behind the weather and way ahead and at the way the moon creates our climate. This revives the ancient mathematical system of longrange weather forecasting, before words like satellite, computer or meteorology were ever dreamed up.
For Tuesday, January 8th.
Yesterday was the Last Quarter, and on Sunday the moon crossed the equator heading south. We are now well-passed the awesome threesome of Full Moon, declination and perigee, which always serves extreme weather. The next watch-out-for period is the New Moon of the 14th, preceded by the southern declination on the 13th. By the 16th from this system, southerlies will bring rain to the South Island and to the North Island by 17th.
MORE PERIGEE/FULL MOON/DECLINATION WEATHER
From the 29th December-4th January, the following mayhem occurred around the
world.
Snow paralysed central Europe. Parts of the Czech Republic were declared a disaster area. Heavy snowfalls and blizzards caused chaos in many parts of central Europe. More are feared dead in avalanches in Poland and in the Alps. Snowdrifts piled up overnight on trunk roads, leaving drivers stranded as they returned home after New Year celebrations. Bad weather was forecast to continue across much of the country, and the temperatures were expected to plunge to -18C. Heavy snows also caused problems in the neighbouring Czech Republic and Slovakia. Officials in Prague declared about a third of the country a disaster area, and several border crossings with Poland and Germany were closed. In Albania, heavy snow left around 150,000 villagers completely cut off on New Year's eve.
Bad weather has also wreaked havoc in Germany and France. Heavy rainfall caused flooding of the Mosell, Meuse and Seine rivers. In Paris, lights illuminating the Pont Neuf in the blue and yellow of the European flag, were turned off on Wednesday as the waters of the Seine rose.
Heavy snow also blanketed Central Japan, stranding New Year's travelers. The city of Nagoya charted its biggest January snowfall in 27 years, with nearly 7 inches blanketing the industrial city in 24 hours, said Kunishiko Yamagishi of Japan's Meteorological Agency. Temperatures in Nagoya, 170 miles west of Tokyo, also dropped to their lowest this winter, hitting 27 degrees. By midday on Jan. 3, snow had forced the delay of 82 bullet trains in the region, affecting an estimated 74,000 passengers, Japan Rail spokesman Naoyuki Maruyama said. Meanwhile, 35 flights were canceled at the Nagoya airport as plows rushed to clear runways, and stretches of highway throughout the region were also temporarily closed due to mounting snows, media reports said.
Greece has suffered heavy snowfalls with the chill reaching Bulgaria and Turkey. Meteorologists said on Sunday that the icy blast is the worst to hit Greece since 1963.
Source: http://europe.cnn.com/2002/WEATHER/01/06/snow.greece/index.html
At the moment this is the major pattern predominating. Winds increasing over the short term, change and the odd electrical storm are to be expected. Where over the Full Moon temperatures seemed intensely hot, now in some places temperatures will seem unusually cool. Auckland and the upper northern areas should stay dry, enabling hay to be cut around Thursday or Friday.
There is a chance of early snow on Whakapapa in the last days of this month. If so, skiers will get all fired up, thinking it's an early sign of a massive season. Forget it. Early snow will be likely again at the end of the first week in February and again in April, but the falls will be quickly washed away by rain. It will be an interesting ski season, quite different from last year.
We predicted rain for Sydney as from about the 7th and this has been falling, spelling good news for fire fighters. (From ABC news report - Carl Smith from the Gold Coast reported today -.."a heavy band of thunderstorms has moved through the Blue Mountains and Hawksbury regions and dumped widespread rainfalls of 30 - 40 mm [1.2 - 1.6 inches] across much of the fire areas in the last few hours. Looks like Ken Ring was right")
Cloudy skies for London will clear by the weekend. London will see intermittent showers on most days for the rest of the month, with dry days likely to be 15th, 17th-21st, 26th, 29th and 31st. Snowfalls are most likely in London around 14th, 19th, and 30th/31st.
The US will remain in the grip of a record cold wave that has reached its icy fingers deep into the south and embraced the midwest.
Some parts of Russia and Europe will be wondering when the snow will arrive. They won't have to wait too long (see below In The Crystal Ball). Moscow and Montreal will see snow by the end of this week.
Rain and floods are due to hit India before the end of this week.
Different peoples have different ideas about the start of the new year.
Most Europeans think it is 1 January.
Jewish people have their own day somewhere between 5 September and 7 October.
Moslems have a year lasting only 354 days and 8 hours, a lunar year rather than a solar one.
The ancient Greeks believed all new years began in the autumn.
Others believed, and some still do, that the March equinox is a more reasonable beginning and indeed it was Julius Caesar who hit on the idea of making it 1 January, the date of the first day of the first month after winter solstice. Until then the Roman year had begun on 1 March, continuing on from the traditions of the Celts and Druids.
Contrary to expectation, the earth is actually nearer the sun, by three million miles, in the northern hemisphere winter than in the northern hemisphere summer. The actual date of perihelion, or nearest approach, is always the 2nd or 3rd January. The date of greatest distance (aphelion) is 1st or 2nd July.
When it is nearer in midwinter, the sun appears to be larger, but only by 1 minute 8 seconds of arc. In fact it causes a 7% increase in solar radiation reaching this planet, and a 7% increase in light and heat.
Whatever northerners may think, the northern hemisphere winter is less cold than the southern hemisphere one. Similarly, the northern summer, due to the greater distance from the sun and the decrease in radiation, is less warm than the southern summer.
In January, planet earth is travelling around the sun at about 19 miles per second; in July the speed is nearer 18 miles per second. These speed differences help to explain why the seasons are different lengths; in order from longest to shortest being summer, spring, autumn and winter in the northern hemisphere, and winter being the longest by about 9 days in the southern hemisphere. Spring and summer are each about three and a half days longer than autumn and winter in the north.
Gazing ahead for January, these international weather events are likely:
15th: snow in Montreal
16th: winter storms sweep Britain and Ireland
17th: earthquake activity in NZ
18th: snow in Belgrade
20th: snow in Calgary
21st: snow in Toronto
22nd: snow in Toronto and Frankfurt
24th: galeforce winds in Britain and N. Europe
25th: storm in Denmark. Snow in Kiev
27th: galeforce winds ease up in UK for 8 days. Snow in Ireland and Scotland. Also Kiev and Stockholm.
28th: snow in Calgary and Chicago
29th: snow in Dublin, Oslo and Stockholm
30th: snow in Tokyo, Copenhagen, Calgary and Montreal
31st: snow in Tokyo, Stockholm and Warsaw.
21/4/1876
"Expolsive Way To Get Rain
Some amusement was caused by the attempt made in Auckland a year or two ago to bring down rain by firing a gun at Fort Britomart, and we observe the same idea is now proposed in Sydney.."
21/12/1882 Waikato Times
"The weather during the past few days has been of a most unseasonable character. The high winds prevailing have done serious damage to orchards, demolishing all early fruit, while the accompanying cold has deterred growth of all kinds. The grain crops all over the district, however, are looking well, while the weather is eminently adapted for ploughing operations.."(high winds?..the perigee was just two days beforehand, on 19th - ed)
19/2/1965 Star
"Science Defied
If proof were needed that science cannot control weather, it was given by the Science Congress held in Auckland. In the printed programme the chairman announced that mid-February had been chosen for the congress "as summer weather, with long hours of daylight is an attraction and will, we hope, give maximum enjoyment to the hundreds of congress visitors to Auckland." But the congress had no sooner got under way last week than heavy rain set in and lasted through most of the congress activities.."
19/2/1966 Herald
"Rain Came Out Of The Blue: Forecasters Fail To Solve Weather Mystery
The Meteorological Service is completely in the dark over the reasons for the torrential rain in the Auckland province this week. The assistant-director in charge of forecasting, Mr I.S.Kerr, replying in Wellington to criticism by Northland farmers about the lack of warning of the possibility of floods, said "Even after the event we still cannot see why the rain was so heavy. We may never know the answer.."
(Perhaps 21we do..the next day, the 20th, was New Moon -ed)
6/3/1973 Herald, Letters to Editor
Sir,-
I was interested to see the Aboriginal dancers here on television, doing their traditional rain dance. However, the gods did not understand that they were in New Zealand - the rain came down in Sydney, and washed out the interdominion trots."
H.C., Pt Chevalier
26/4/1978 Tribune
"I will continue to pray for rain, and I am confident that if we keep praying the rain will come".
- Mr Bjelke-Peterson, Premier of Queensland.
Hi Ken
Have got a private inquiry about the 2002 ski season. We're planning a family sking trip down to Wanaka in mid September & was wondering if you could shed some light on what your prediction for the South Island Ski season is.
Considering that Treble Cone was almost closed by mid -sept in 2001 & Cardrona was just okay, while'st it was a boomer season for the North Island.
I'm really pleased with the almanac layout & its already providing some clues to help with our farm management in 2002
Cheers,
Jeff
(If it was me I'd go to Wanaka after August 1 or the 10, as there'll be snowfalls then, no rain to wash it away, and a few days of dry weather following.- K)
http://clysmic.com/lunabar/
This is a desktop program, a little on the mystical side, but with useful information about phase, rise\set\overhead times.
http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ezines/ezineindex.htm
(ezine archives, thanks to Carl Smith, Gold Coast) or
http://www.topica.com/lists/weather/read
SNIPPETS STILL RELEVANT, CARRIED OVER FROM LAST EZINE
HELLO?
According to the Metservice's own figures, but which for some strange reason they seem to be staying quiet about, overall Auckland's 2001 year was slightly cooler and wetter than average. No global or any other warming occurred. Rainfall was slightly above average mainly due to a wetter May and December. Temperatures were almost exactly average for each month, the exceptions being August and October.
For this January, we predicted Southland would see a repeat of last year's conditions; cooler and wetter than average. Canterbury and Dargaville would also be wetter and cooler. Already Southland and Canterbury are seeing cooler and wetter weather, unfortunately for campers.
Drier than average areas will be the Far North, Bay of Plenty, Manawhatu and Marlborough. All other areas should receive average rainfall over the rest of summer. Marlborough will receive average rain over February and more than average in March, so threat of drought will be absent.
For most of the north, Rotorua, Gisborne, Hawkes Bay, Taupo, and Wellington, there will be mainly sunny weather for the first two weeks of January with the exception of January 6th/7th, when there'll be some midday rain.
Around the 6th/7th, too, Sydney should get good rainfall which should see the end of the devastating fires.
Auckland will see average rainfall overall for January and February, and below average temperatures. The first month of spring will be wetter for most areas in NZ, then drier for the remainder months.
The potential for earthquakes will be 1st-3rd, 12th-14th, 18th and especially 27th-30th, when NZ will be in the firing line. Watch the newspapers then.
Tauranga Blues, Brews and BBQ:
Mt Maunganui
10th January
Fine and sunny.
The Big Day Out:
January 18th
Mainly dry but possibility of light passing showers at night.
Auckland Folk Festival:
Kumeu showgrounds
25th-28th January
First two days: fine and sunny.
Sunday: possible morning showers plus fine periods.
Monday: same as Sunday.
Jazz and Blues Streetfest:
Mission Bay
Feb 2
dry and sunny.
Waitangi Day:
Bay of Islands
February 6th
fine and sunny.
The Bay of Plenty still looks likely to be significantly drier than normal and will be the place to watch. From now until July not enough rain falls there to reach each monthly average. January and February each see about 6 rain days, with about 10 in March and 5 in April, but most of those days also see considerable sunshine hours.
WORLD WEATHER HAS BEEN CHANGING
Some often shake their heads and say 30 or so years ago (1968-70) there were more summery days in a row and longer winter frosts. Indeed they are correct.
When the moon's declination was 18 degrees, around 1996/7, and a mooncycle further backcalled minimum declination, depressions stayed longer and troughs took longer to pass over the country. Anticyclones, too, remained for longer periods and in the winter gave longer frost periods. When, in 1996/7 the moon was at monthly northern or southern declination, the stationary period for a depression or an anticyclone was considerably longer and they moved away more slowly. Winters and summers in polar regions were colder because the atmosphere was thicker between the tropics, where the moon was, and the polar regions had a relatively reduced atmosphere.
As the moon works her way up to 2005-7 (the maximum declination years), our depressions, troughs and anticyclones will tend to get shorter, storms will pass more quickly and frosts and snowfall periods will not linger as long. This is because at minimum declination (1996/7) the moon's movement is so quick, for the 36/37 degrees from north to south takes place in about half a month, whilst in 2005 the same north/south movement of 56/57 degrees will be taking the same half-month. In 1996 the moon's daily advance northwards at the equator was a leisurely 4 degrees or so. By 2005 the moon will be covering 56 degrees of latitude in the same period of time, and its daily advance at the equator will be a quicker 6 degrees or so.
This climactic change is barely perceptible, and unless you have kept daily records for more than 10 years you wouldn't notice.
My Weather Almanac 2002 (publisher Hazard Press) should be slightly easier to obtain because shops have restocked. You'll find daily weather predictions two days per page including weather maps and moon information for every day of 2002. (For example the current bad weather on the West Coast is right there on page 11). Individual towns are listed for every day, plus an inventory for each month, and 5-year ahead monthly rainfall projections for all NZ areas up to and including year 2006.
I do sell them by mail-order from my premises. Send a cheque to Ken Ring, P.O.Box 60197 Titirangi, Auckland and I'll mail one immediately. Sorry folks, no credit cards. 230 pages, A5 paperback size. $NZ27 + 2 postage.
COOK STRAIT CROSSINGS FOR JANUARY
Southerlies typically cause choppy seas and swells whereas northerlies tend to blow the sea flat.
Southerlies (avoid): 16th, 24th-26th.
Northerlies (okay): 11th-15th, 19th-23rd, 27th-31st.
SUBMISSION TO CLIMATE CHANGE COMMITTEE, RE KYOTO PROTOCOL
A group of us put together a submission which we sent to the Ministry of the Environment, urging them to consider an alternative viewpoint, which is that the science behind NZ's decision to ratify is very shonky and mainly just a heap of nonsense. If you would like a copy of what we sent, just send me a reply to this email, simply typing in the subject box "send submission". Share it with your friends, or anyone interested. The more people who are informed as to what this government is hastily trying to legislate us into before the next election, the better.
Contact
Editor: Ken Ring
Phone: land. 09-817-7625, fax. 09-817-2203, mobile 021
970-696
Postal: P.O.Box 60197 Titirangi, Auckland 7, New
Zealand.
E-mail: ken@weatherman.co.nz
Internet: http://www.predictweather.com
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