Hi if you have just joined this newsletter, which looks behind the weather and way ahead and at the way the moon creates our climate. This revives the ancient mathematical system of longrange weather forecasting, before words like satellite, computer or meteorology were ever dreamed up.
For Tuesday, January 15th.
Yesterday was the New Moon, and on Sunday/Monday the moon stood at the southern declination.
The forecasters are saying this recent rain was a freak event. Hardly. The moon creates weather and New Moons are nearly always destructive in our summer. January's New Moon is 13th/14th. Last summer, if readers remember, the week of bad weather around the New Moon of December 25, 2000 lasted until the new year storm that lost the historic launch Ruamano. The summer before that saw a week of rain around the New Moon of January 5 2000 (Herald 5/1/00 - "End in Sight To Fickle Weather") And before that? The New Moon of January 17, 1999 saw torrential rain on that day and flash flooding in Hamilton, and just for good measure on the same day a tornado visited Te Aroha. Golf event organisers are gambling with high stakes if they expect an open-air event over a summer New Moon in NZ to be rain-free. Unexpected extreme weather may occur during any (but especially a summer) New Moon, 2 days after Full Moon and around perigee. These 'rules' overlay all other forecasts.
Southern declination brings typically dry conditions. The operative word these days would be driER.
Giant hailstones the size of grapefruits have caused serious damage to over 2,000 houses in northern Thailand. Floodwaters have swept through an Indonesian village killing 21 people. Big earthquakes have occurred on Santa Cruz, and Tonga (5.7 mag. on 13th).
(1st posted on Jan 2nd)
For this January, we predicted Southland would see a repeat of last year's conditions; cooler and wetter than average. Canterbury and Dargaville would also be wetter and cooler. Already Southland and Canterbury are seeing cooler and wetter weather, unfortunately for campers. Drier than average areas will be the Far North, Bay of Plenty, Manawhatu and Marlborough. All other areas should receive average rainfall over the rest of summer. Marlborough will receive average rain over February and more than average in March, so threat of drought will be absent. Auckland will see average rainfall overall for January and February, and below average temperatures. The first month of spring will be wetter for most areas in NZ, then drier for the remainder months. But the best time to take holidays will be after March 1.
Contrary to expectation, dry air weighs more than wet air.
The reason is that a molecule of water is lighter than a molecule of oxygen or nitrogen. Therefore hot humid air, less dense, will rise and less humid air, being more dense, will stay at ground level.
If this were not the case, the evaporation process would not occur and clouds could not form. The less dense, wet air continues rising until condensation occurs and rain falls. Rain is of course, heavier than air. Droplets gather to make rain, but the gathering is massive and slow - it takes one million cloud droplets to make up one raindrop.
Gravitational pull increases as mass decreases. That is why as the moon passes above the horizon, it pulls more strongly on the lighter air, that with the water content. The result is that clouds go higher when the moon is in the sky. When the moon goes over the horizon, clouds come closer to earth. On any day, find out what time the moon sets and watch what the clouds do.
Sea tides vary by about 6 feet between low and high tide and in an open area of sea as is the NZ coast, this height can be increased by at least two feet and odd occasions have been reported when tides have been nearer 10 feet. This would be with the new moon/perigee attraction. The aggregated differences between these very low tides and very high tides is not known, but whatever this difference is, if this parallel was made against atmospheric tides, the difference between an atomspheric low tide and an atmospheric high tide would amount to many tens of thousands of feet.
Consider, too, the declinations of the moon. One can easily check the differences in declination by observing the rising of the Full Moon and a New moon during December and June. In December the Full Moon rises in the northeastern sky while the New moon rises to the southeast. In June the New moon rises in the northeastern sky while the Full Moon rises to the southeast. These months are used because Full and New moons occur while over the northern and southern declinations during those months.
This explains the higher-than-normal atmospheric tide associated with the northern and southern hemispheres in winter from a Full Moon. Perigee is an additional factor which exacerbates.
Although the use of satellites has improved the day-to-day forecast, there is still a limiting factor - the satellites cannot measure the depth of the atmosphere, nor can they see at night, which is why our daily broadcasted forecast can change so much from 6am to 12pm.
Satellites are still tied to the technology of the barometer. To make a barometer mean anything, meteorologists have to factor out the tide of the air. They do this because the barometer reading at one location has to be compared to the barometric reading at another. Therefore all barometers are adjusted to "mean sea-level" which yields a reading which is called "sea-level pressure" which artificially denies that the atmosphere has any height, let alone a changing one.
But the changing height of the atmosphere, which happens as the moon passes daily overhead and then goes down over the horizon is the atmosphere's tide, and it can be discovered if you look for it. On a barograph(very sensitive barometer) readout, you can see a gentle curve or a hump connecting every single moonrise and moonset every day. These humps indicate the air-tide.
We know the sea-tide can be measured way ahead, then logically, so can the air-tide. When the air-tide is low, the weather deteriorates. When it is extra-low, weather deteriorates more. When the air-tide is high, which is when the moon is in the sky, the skies are more likely to clear.
8/1/02 To Herald
Dear Editor
When asked for the causes of weather, National Climate Centre tell us only that "fine weather is caused by a ridge..a deep low produces disturbed weather..a heat wave is due to a high..and bad weather is caused by a low" (Herald 8th). You don't say! I wonder when they will admit that the moon causes the weather. The last round of worldwide mayhem, from earthquakes in Vanuatu and Cyclone Waka in Tonga, to snow and ice storms in the northern hemisphere, 29th December through 4th January, was due to the three-fold combined effects of Full Moon, pergiee(moon closest to earth)and northern declination. Ancient cultures knew about the moon and its effect on the weather and how to predict way ahead. Studying the moon tells us that another lot of awful weather comes around the 16th. And there will be the chance of snow on Whakapapa in the last days of January.
11/1/02
Dear Editor
The unprecedented build-up of ice in the Ross Sea (Herald, 11th), even in summer time, confirms a long-held NASA claim that Antarctica ice has been slowly thickening for the past 20 years (science@NASA.com October 20th). But who was listening? Perhaps now that thousands of penguins are starving due to growing ice, climate scientists will at last concede that the poles are not melting.
ref: http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2000/ast20oct_1.htm
12/1/02
Dear Editor
I remind you that on the 16th October 2001 the NZ Herald ran this piece.."Cyclone Risk Low - New Zealand is likely to escape being hit by a tropical cyclone this summer.' This was the National Climate Centre prediction - of a summer free of cyclonic weather. I also remind you that the next day, October I7th, in response to that prediction, as part of a larger article on cyclones and what causes them, I sent the following to the editor of the 'Dialogue' column.. .."My results are that tropical cyclones will form on or about the Last Quarter moon of December, meaning 8th - 16th, the Last Quarter moon of January which will be 10th-18th, and the Last Quarter moon of February(9th). There will be bad weather during those time windows, fed by the cyclones..."
28/6/1968 Star or Herald
"Warning of Wars Fought By Weather..
Global wars fought with hurricanes, mile-high icebergs, rain and electricity could happen withinn 10 to 20 years, a top U.S. scientists said yesterday. One technique could reduce whole populations to imbecility by channelling electric current from an area below the stratosphere, he said. Another but equally possible was the melting of the South Pole ice caps, causing tidal wave destruction of every coastal area in the world. Later, Dr McDonald said he felt every scientist should warn political leaders of these threats to world survival.."
19/5/1977 Herald
"Weather Not Weapon, States Agree..
The United States, the Soviet Union and 26 more nations will today pledge never to attack one another by starting man-made storms, earthquakes or tidal waves. Foreign ministers or special envoys from the 28 countries will sign a United Nations agreement banning the use of weather as a weapon. And meeting for the first time since last year, the Soviet Foreign Minister, Mr Gromyko and the United States Secretary of State, Mr Vance, will also discuss how peace can best be brought to the Middle East." (I'd rather have a storm dropped on my house than a bomb - wouldn't you? -ed)
27/11/1973 Star
"Chunnel Threat to the Climate Claims Engineer..
The channel tunnel between France and England could bedevil Europe's weather and disturb crops over a wide area, according to a French engineer who opposes the project. The effects on the weather might be so undesirable that some crops could no longer be grown where they are now. Engineer Jean Suchy says the long undersea shaft could materially change air-flows between the two sides of the channel, creating an 'atmospheric syphon.' With the piercing of the tunnel, he argues, Great Britain will no longer behave like an island climatically, but like a common peninsular. The northern and southern growing limits of certain basic crops will be moved by several hundred kilometers. Without trumpet call or roll of drums, grapes could refuse to ripen in Touraine or beets to flourish in Picardy.."
Hi Ken,
Several years ago I read a article in one of the Australian news papers about attracting more tourists to London, as they were having more competition for the tourist dollar with Paris and Amsterdam. What they were going to do was to manipulate the temperature so it would not seem so cold. They were just doing what Paris and Amsterdam were doing and no doubt other cities arouind the world do. I look forward to readers' comments on this type of "global warming"
Laurence
Hi Ken,
I bought your almanac for 2002 and I've noticed that you don't mention wind at all. As my wife and I are avid sea kayakers wind is the only weather that really concerns us (paddling in the rain can be very enjoyable but a strong wind can be deadly). Do winds factor in to your predictions at all?
Cheers,
Stephen
(Winds can be read from the weathermaps. An anticyclone circles anticlockwise and a cyclone clockwise. A southern declination causes southerlies soon afterwards and a northern declination brings westerlies and northern winds. When the moon crosses the equator, winds speed up. When at declinations north and south, they slow down. They also pick up around perigee and apogee.
As local yacht-racer Bob Still once pointed out to me, New Moon typically brings westerlies, solid wind at water level (for instance yesterday), and a Full Moon brings lighter winds generally from the north. He said yachties know to put on an extra sail if it is the day of the Full Moon.
The trouble with wind forecasting is that hills change winds all over the place. Wellington has a lot of northerlies, but the winds are not from the north - they get funnelled through the venturi of Cook Strait and deflected from the Sounds. The Hauraki Plains get weird weather patterns from winds bouncing off the Coromandel Ranges. Northeasterlies blowing into Auckland for 3 or 4 days will bring big downpours. Titirangi, where I live, gets rain mainly on a northwesterly. Northwesterlies are also the flood-causing winds in Nelson.
The data I have access to consists of historic forecasts in which wind indications are only average readings over 24 hours. I didn't put winds in the Almanac because they are so fickle.-K)
http://clysmic.com/lunabar/
This is a desktop program, a little on the mystical side, but with useful information about phase, rise\set\overhead times.
http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ezines/ezineindex.htm
(ezine archives, thanks to Carl Smith, Gold Coast) or
http://www.topica.com/lists/weather/read
SNIPPETS STILL RELEVANT, CARRIED OVER FROM LAST EZINE
Contrary to expectation, the earth is actually nearer the sun, by three million miles, in the northern hemisphere winter than in the northern hemisphere summer.
The actual date of perihelion, or nearest approach, is always the 2nd or 3rd January. The date of greatest distance(aphelion) is 1st or 2nd July.
When it is nearer in midwinter, the sun appears to be larger, but only by 1 minute 8 seconds of arc. In fact it causes a 7% increase in solar radiation reaching this planet, and a 7% increase in light and heat.
Whatever northerners may think, the northern hemisphere winter is less cold than the southern hemisphere one. Similarly, the northern summer, due to the greater distance from the sun and the decrease in radiation, is less warm than the southern summer.
In January, planet earth is travelling around the sun at about 19 miles per second; in July the speed is nearer 18 miles per second. These speed differences help to explain why the seasons are different lengths; in order from longest to shortest being summer, spring, autumn and winter in the northern hemisphere, and winter being the longest by about 9 days in the southern hemisphere. Spring and summer are each about three and a half days longer than autumn and winter in the north.
15th: snow in Montreal
16th: stormy weather for northern Britain and Ireland.
17th: earthquake activity in NZ
18th: snow in Belgrade
20th: snow in Calgary
21st: snow in Toronto
22nd: snow in Toronto and Frankfurt
24th: galeforce winds in Britain and N. Europe
25th: storm in Denmark. Snow in Kiev.
27th: galeforce winds ease up in UK for 8 days. Snow in Ireland and Scotland. Also Kiev and Stockholm.
28th: snow in Calgary and Chicago.
29th: snow in Dublin, Oslo and Stockholm
30th: snow in Tokyo, Copenhagen, Calgary and Montreal
31st: snow in Tokyo, Stockholm and Warsaw.
London will see intermittent showers on most days for the rest of the month, with dry days likely to be 15th, 17th-21st, 26th, 29th and 31st. Snowfalls are most likely in London around 14th, 19th, and 30th/31st.
According to the Metservice's own figures, but which for some strange reason they seem to be staying quiet about, overall Auckland's 2001 year was slightly cooler and wetter than average. No global or any other warming occurred. Rainfall was slightly above average mainly due to a wetter May and December. Temperatures were almost exactly average for each month, the exceptions being August and October.
The potential for earthquakes will be 1st-3rd, 12th-14th, 18th and especially 27th-30th, when NZ will be in the firing line. Watch the newspapers then.
The Big Day Out(January 18th): Mainly dry but possibility of light passing showers at night.
Auckland Folk Festival, Kumeu showgrounds, 25th-28th January: First two days: dry. Sunday: possible morning showers plus fine periods. Monday: same as Sunday.
Jazz and Blues Streetfest(Mission Bay, Feb 2): dry.
Waitangi Day (February 6th, Bay of Islands); dry.
Easter Weekend (March 29-April 1) light showers and fine intervals.
Skies clearing after Easter.
There is a chance of early snow on Whakapapa in the last days of this month.
The Bay of Plenty will be the place to watch. From now until July not enough rain falls there to reach each monthly average. January and February each see about 6 rain days, with about 10 in March and 5 in April, but most of those days also see considerable sunshine hours.
WORLD WEATHER HAS BEEN CHANGING
Some often shake their heads and say 30 or so years ago (1968-70) there were more summery days in a row and longer winter frosts. Indeed they are correct.
When the moon's declination was 18 degrees, around 1996/7, and a mooncycle further back called minimum declination, depressions stayed longer and troughs took longer to pass over the country. Anticyclones, too, remained for longer periods and in the winter gave longer frost periods.
When, in 1996/7 the moon was at monthly northern or southern declination, the stationary period for a depression or an anticyclone was considerably longer and they moved away more slowly. Winters and summers in polar regions were colder because the atmosphere was thicker between the tropics, where the moon was, and the polar regions had a relatively reduced atmosphere.
As the moon works her way up to 2005-7 (the maximum declination years), our depressions, troughs and anticyclones will tend to get shorter, storms will pass more quickly and frosts and snowfall periods will not linger as long.
This is because at minimum declination(1996/7) the moon's movement is so quick, for the 36/37 degrees from north to south takes place in about half a month, whilst in 2005 the same north/south movement of 56/57 degrees will be taking the same half-month.
In 1996 the moon's daliy advance northwards at the equator was a leisurely 4 degrees or so. By 2005 the moon will be covering 56 degrees of latitude in the same period of time, and its daily advance at the equator will be a quicker 6 degrees or so.
This climactic change is barely perceptible, and unless you have kept daily records for more than 10 years you wouldn't notice.
Daily weather predictions two days per page including weather maps and moon information for every day of 2002. (For example the new year's bad weather on the West Coast is right there on page 11). Individual towns are listed for every day, plus an inventory for each month, and 5-year ahead monthly rainfall projections for all NZ areas up to and including year 2006. Send a cheque to Ken Ring, P.O.Box 60197 Titirangi, Auckland. 230 pages, A5 paperback size. $NZ27 + 2 postage
>From National Radio, 9th, interview with taxi-driver
"..Full Moons are the worst. People turn into dogs.."
COOK STRAIT CROSSINGS FOR DECEMBER AND JANUARY
Southerlies typically cause choppy seas and swells whereas northerlies tend to blow the sea flat.
JANUARY:
Southerlies (avoid): 16th, 24th-26th.
Northerlies (okay): 11th-15th, 19th-23rd, 27th-31st.
SUBMISSION TO CLIMATE CHANGE COMMITTEE, RE KYOTO PROTOCOL
What we sent to the Ministry of the Environment, urging them to consider that the science behind NZ's decision to ratify is mainly just a heap of nonsense. If you would like a copy of what we sent, simply click "reply" then type in the subject box "send submission".
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