Hi if you have just joined this newsletter, which looks behind the weather and way ahead and at the way the moon creates our climate. This revives the ancient mathematical system of longrange weather forecasting, before words like satellite, computer or meteorology were ever dreamed up.
For Tuesday, January 22nd.
Day of 1st Quarter. Two days after crossing equator and heading north.
The phase period of New Moon-1st Quarter is always the most settled for the month. Traditionally it was the time of planting and guaranteed to be good fishing. At this time the moon is shielding earth from the solar wind of electromagnetic particles resulting in a quieter sea and a less electrically active atmosphere and soil.
Last Tuesday, January 15th, in the Herald, it said "Brollies essential for another fortnight...the weather merry-go-around will be with us till the end of the month..Dr Jim Salinger said the northerlies should bring..possibly the tail of one tropical cyclone..." BUT..hold the phone..by last Friday Bob McDavitt was saying that there would be no rain for this week AT ALL. My pick is for rain to come about Wednesday in the north but to clear again for the weekend. Sunday and next Monday I think will see some more showers. Maybe in our own little ways we are all right, deep down..
19th January. "Forecasters are warning gales will sweep in from the Atlantic in the middle of next week and winds could gust at up to 75mph in some areas. There is also expected to be up to an inch of rain in a few hours in some places which could lead to localised flooding, they added. The storm - the worst of the winter so far - is expected to sweep across south Wales, Devon and Cornwall and the south coast of Ireland, from Tuesday afternoon.
Full story: http://www.ananova.com/yournews/story/sm_498733.html" It looks like our prediction in this ezine two weeks ago is coming true - (IN THE CRYSTAL BALL
24th: galeforce winds in Britain and N. Europe
25th: storm in Denmark. Snow in Kiev.
27th: galeforce winds ease up in UK for 8 days. Snow in Ireland and Scotland. Also Kiev and Stockholm.)
"US scientists are to use an optical "tape measure" 239,000 miles long to find the distance to the moon to the nearest millimetre. They plan to employ a telescope, a laser beam and reflectors left by several lunar missions. It will provide the most accurate measure yet obtained of the Earth's distance from the moon. In the early 1970s, the distance was measured to within about 25 centimetres. Technological advances since the mid-1980s have now sharply reduced that margin to about two centimetres.
(Full story: http://www.ananova.com/yournews/story/sm_499715.html)"
My question is..why? The moon is ever on the move closer and further away from us. Any measurement will be for that day only.
"Lava flows have reached the centre of Goma in the Democratic Republic of Congo after the eruption of Mount Nyiragongolast. It is creating a five foot wall of cooling stone burning everything in its path and has left half a million people homeless. About 100,000 people had fled west, while 300,000 others crossed over to Rwanda in the east. The lava cut the only road connecting the two sides.
Full story: http://www.ananova.com/yournews/story/sm_499212.html
The eruption in the Congo is interesting. The moon slowly moves east and rises exactly above a more easterly point every day. For instance, it last rose exactly over NZ on January 2. But it rose exactly above Goma on eruption day. The day was also lunar apogee. The moon's position was almost exactly opposite to NZ through the earth. We have had extra-strength winds. I had predicted the 18th as an earthquake day last week - it landed fair and square in the Congo. An earthquake also rocked Japan.
"New measurements show the ice in West Antarctica is thickening, reversing earlier estimates of it melting. Scientists concerned about global warming had worried higher temperatures could melt the massive ice sheet, causing a rise in sea levels. But new satellite measurements of the Ross ice streams show the movement of some of the ice streams has slowed or stopped, allowing the ice to thicken.
Full story: http://www.ananova.com/yournews/story/sm_498356.html
Antarctica's desert valleys have grown noticeably cooler since the mid-1980s, scientists report. Air temperatures recorded over a 14-year period ending in 1999 declined by about 1 degree Fahrenheit in the polar deserts and across the White Continent.The cooler temperatures are triggering a cascade of ecological consequences in the sensitive and barren region known as the Dry Valleys.
Full story: http://www.ananova.com/yournews/story/sm_494331.html
PARIS (AFP) Jan 13, 2002
"Parts of Antarctica have cooled sharply in recent years, a finding which counters doomsday perceptions that the frozen continent faces imminent meltdown from global warming, according to a study published Sunday. Measurements taken by weather stations in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, the largest ice-free area in Antarctica, show that this region cooled by 0.7 C (1.25 F) per decade between 1986 and 2000. The cooling was especially strong during the autumn and summer seasons, and had a destructive effect on the fragile local ecosystem.
The research, published online by the British weekly science journal Nature, was led by Peter Doran of the department of Earth and environmental sciences at the University of Chicago. Doran said the findings did not at all conflict with the mounting evidence that the world's overall average surface temperature is rising steadily as a result of burning fossil fuels. "However, what people have not pointed out before is that Antarctica is the only continent on earth that by and large is cooling, whereas the other continents are warming," he said. Why Antarctica should be the exception could be because of the complex interplay between ocean currents, he suggested. Changes to the ocean convection system through global warming may be cooling the Southern Ocean, the chilly sea which circulates around Antarctica and which is a major factor in the continent's frigid climate, he said.
The image of a cooler Antarctica contrasts with the popular fear that the continent's icecap faces imminent destruction from man-made climate change. Substantially higher temperatures would indeed cause the cap to crack up and melt, a scenario that would reverberate around the planet's climate system and cause sea levels to rise dramatically. But that perception, suggested Doran, was a distorted one because most weather monitoring stations are based in the Antarctic Peninsula -- the tongue of land that projects northwards from the continent towards South America. "Because the peninsula is so easily accessible, a lot of countries have stations there and are measuring the weather there," he said. Even a small fall in the temperature reduced the runoff from glaciers and ice during the brief Antarctic summer.
The colder, dryer conditions had had a big knock-on effect on wildlife. The number of animals -- mostly soil worms called nematodes -- in the McMurdo Dry Valleys fell by 10 percent between 1986 and 2000. Doran said that even though Antarctica seemed "isolated climatologically" from the rest of the planet, it would not be shielded forever from global warming. "It may be that this is just a delay in the warming, that we are not going to see the warming in Antarctica for a while, that it's just being delayed somehow through the system," he said.
The UN's top scientific body on global warming, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), said last year the Earth's average surface air temperature rose about 0.6 degrees Celsius (1.1 degrees Fahrenheit) in the 20th century. It predicted the atmosphere could warm by 1.4 to 5.8 C. (2.5-10.4 F.) from 1990-2100, with potentially destructive effects on the climate system. The IPCC report, which Doran said included data from his team, said that although the Arctic icecap had thinned substantially, Antarctic sea-ice had remained unchanged and in some areas had even thickened slightly."
It is getting harder and harder to prove global warming. What they REALLY mean is, we mustn't question good old GW, because our meals have come to depend on it.. But we now have SEVERAL possible scenarios:
1. the ice IS getting thicker, but it doesn't threaten the notion of global warming because it appears minor or temporary.
2. it's thinning only in PARTS, and overall the polar region is unchanging.
3. it's only thinning in the part they are measuring, and the other bit doesn't really count.
4. the thinning seems (at first glance) to reverse poles-melting stories - but clearly only applies, so far, to certain months.
5. the thinning is only temporary and the poles will probably recommence melting again soon.
6. the thickening of ice is all PROOF of global warming and even predictable, because of "convection in ocean currents". Duh.
7. the idea of global warming has to be now readjusted to temporarily EXCLUDE Antarctic until we have a clearer picture.
8. the drop is a small one, but down there a small drop looks larger than it really is because it has a big effect on wildlife.
YET ANOTHER TERRIBLE AIR CRASH
We are all reeling in grief at yet another unexplained air crash in NZ, this time killing six in mountainous terrain. Perhaps the following may shed some light on a possible cause.
It is my belief that the monthly closeness of the moon, known as the apsidal cycle by astronomers, can cause atmospheric "holes" over and near montain ranges, causing freak vaccuums that result in air crashes. The situation can be likened to the rushing out of the seatide, causing vaccuum pockets behind protruding rocks in a stream, only this time we are dealing with an air-tide and the vaccuum pockets in the lee of tall hills that can form when the air-tide is going out.
The 'apsidal line' is the gravitational lunar force line comprising lunar perigee and apogee, which are times of "king" air-tides. At times of perigee/apogee, violent winds are briefly generated.
It is, then, not surprising that the Hollyford Valley Cessna tragedy on the 19th happened on the day of lunar apogee, key component of this apsidal line. Most of NZ experienced extra-strength winds for those two days of 18th/19th.
Looking at other major tourist air crashes in recent years reveals a definite apogee or perigee-related pattern.
On March 28, 2000, five people, including four American tourists, were killed when a helicopter hit power lines at Lake Manapouri. The apogee was the previous day.
On April 18, 1999, five people were killed when a Cessna floatplane crashed on Mt Suter during a scenic flight between Te Anau and Milford. The perigee was a day away.
On October 25th, 1993, nine people, including 6 German tourists, were killed when a twin-engined Nomad 22 crashed at Franz Josef Glacier. The apogee was on the 27th.
On August 8, 1989, ten people, including nine American and Canadian tourists, died when a twin-engined Britten-Norman Islander crashed on a sight-seeing flight between Milford Sound and Wanaka. The apogee was on the previous day.
And what about Ansett 708? That unfortunate incident occurred on June 9, 1995 a couple of days before the biggest perigee of that year.
Much worse, on July 3, 1963 over the Kaimai Ranges (specifically Mt Ngatamahinerua), a National Airways DC3 crashed with the loss of 3 crew and 20 passengers. The ëprobableí cause then was put down to severe downdrafts in the lee of the ranges. Yet the apogee had occurred on the previous day.
The list is endless. Two US marines have just been killed and another seven injured after a military helicopter crashed in Northern Afghanistan (Full story: http://www.ananova.com/yournews/story/sm_499781.html
Are these all coincidences? Maybe. The influence of the moon is usually scoffed at by modern science. So I do not expect air-accident investigators to start looking toward the moon any day soon. Pity. They would soon realise that a lunar perigee/apogee has been around whenever an unexplained air crash has occurred. The lesson? Don't go flying close to mountainous terrain around apogees or perigees.
One day this message will get through. Investigators have now said they will do a report but that it will take six months. Great. There may be another six crashes before then.
This report took me about fifteen minutes.
Hi Ken,
I have just located your predictweather website and was interested in the discussion about light plane crashes. There was a plane crash in the Hukerenui, Northland NZ area, 23/12/01. I wonder if you would have any comment about lunar activity on this day? I look forward to your reply.
Regards
Len
(On that exact day the moon was crossing the equator heading north. Extra turbulence is the expectation on that day because the moon is moving faster, like the midpoint of a pendulum. It was also one day out from apogee, and the perigee/apogee line seems to increase the low air-tide effect. As far as phase goes, it was the day of the 1st Quarter moon. Whenever the phase changes it seems to also be a day of weather change, meaning various and conflicting wind patterns. The low air-tide would have been in the morning, because the moon was out of the sky until after 1pm; and the danger times would have been 1-2am and 1-2pm, for rising and setting times; and 7-8am and 7-8pm for zenith and nadir times. Not knowing what time the crash occurred, if it was between or near those times you have a lunar factor looming for sure.
http://clysmic.com/lunabar/
This is a desktop program, a little on the mystical side, but with useful information about phase, rise\set\overhead times.
http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ezines/ezineindex.htm
(ezine archives, thanks to Carl Smith, Gold Coast) or
http://www.topica.com/lists/weather/read
SNIPPETS STILL RELEVANT, CARRIED OVER FROM LAST EZINE
FORECASTS:
EARTHQUAKES IN JANUARY
The potential for earthquakes will be 1st-3rd, 12th-14th, 18th and especially 27th-30th, when NZ will be in the firing line. Watch the newspapers then.
REST OF SUMMER
(1st posted on Jan 2nd)
For this January, we predicted Southland would see a repeat of last year's conditions; cooler and wetter than average. Canterbury and Dargaville would also be wetter and cooler. Already Southland and Canterbury are seeing cooler and wetter weather, unfortunately for campers. Drier than average areas will be the Far North, Bay of Plenty, Manawhatu and Marlborough. All other areas should receive average rainfall over the rest of summer. Marlborough will receive average rain over February and more than average in March, so threat of drought will be absent. Auckland will see average rainfall overall for January and February, and below average temperatures. The first month of autumn will be wetter for most areas in NZ, then drier for the remainder months. But the best time to take holidays will be after March 1.
COOK STRAIT CROSSINGS FOR DECEMBER AND JANUARY
Southerlies typically cause choppy seas and swells whereas northerlies tend to blow the sea flat.
JANUARY
Southerlies (avoid): 24th-26th.
Northerlies (okay): 19th-23rd, 27th-31st.
IN THE CRYSTAL BALL
15th: snow in Montreal
16th: stormy weather for northern Britain and Ireland.
17th: earthquake activity in NZ
18th: snow in Belgrade
20th: snow in Calgary
21st: snow in Toronto
22nd: snow in Toronto and Frankfurt
24th: galeforce winds in Britain and N. Europe
25th: storm in Denmark. Snow in Kiev.
27th: galeforce winds ease up in UK for 8 days. Snow in Ireland and Scotland. Also Kiev and Stockholm.
28th: snow in Calgary and Chicago.
29th: snow in Dublin, Oslo and Stockholm
30th: snow in Tokyo, Copenhagen, Calgary and Montreal
31st: snow in Tokyo, Stockholm and Warsaw.
London will see intermittent showers on most days for the rest of the month, with dry days likely to be 15th, 17th-21st, 26th, 29th and 31st. Snowfalls are most likely in London around 14th, 19th, and 30th/31st.
EVENTS COMING
Auckland Folk Festival, Kumeu showgrounds, 25th-28th January: First two days: dry. Sunday: possible morning showers plus fine periods. Monday: same as Sunday.
Jazz and Blues Streetfest (Mission Bay, Feb 2): dry.
Waitangi Day (February 6th, Bay of Islands); dry.
Easter Weekend (March 29-April 1) light showers and fine intervals.
Skies clearing after Easter.
SNOW ON WHAKAPAPA
There is a chance of early snow on Whakapapa in the last days of this month.
DROUGHT
The Bay of Plenty will be the place to watch. From now until July not enough rain falls there to reach each monthly average. January and February each see about 6 rain days, with about 10 in March and 5 in April, but most of those days also see considerable sunshine hours.
ARTICLES:
SEASONS
Contrary to expectation, the earth is actually nearer the sun, by three million miles, in the northern hemisphere winter than in the northern hemisphere summer. The actual date of perihelion, or nearest approach, is always the 2nd or 3rd January. The date of greatest distance(aphelion) is 1st or 2nd July. When it is nearer in midwinter, the sun appears to be larger, but only by 1 minute 8 seconds of arc. In fact it causes a 7% increase in solar radiation reaching this planet, and a 7% increase in light and heat. Whatever northerners may think, the northern hemisphere winter is less cold than the southern hemisphere one. Similarly, the northern summer, due to the greater distance from the sun and the decrease in radiation, is less warm than the southern summer. In January, planet earth is travelling around the sun at about 19 miles per second; in July the speed is nearer 18 miles per second. These speed differences help to explain why the seasons are different lengths; in order from longest to shortest being summer, spring, autumn and winter in the northern hemisphere, and winter being the longest by about 9 days in the southern hemisphere. Spring and summer are each about three and a half days longer than autumn and winter in the north.
THE HUMIDITY FACTOR
Contrary to expectation, dry air weighs more than wet air. The reason is that a molecule of water is lighter than a molecule of oxygen or nitrogen. Therefore hot humid air, less dense, will rise and less humid air, being more dense, will stay at ground level. If this were not the case, the evaporation process would not occur and clouds could not form. The less dense, wet air continues rising until condensation occurs and rain falls. Rain is of course, heavier than air. Droplets gather to make rain, but the gathering is massive and slow - it takes one million cloud droplets to make up one raindrop. Gravitational pull increases as mass decreases. That is why as the moon passes above the horizon, it pulls more strongly on the lighter air, that with the water content. The result is that clouds go higher when the moon is in the sky. When the moon goes over the horizon, clouds come closer to earth. On any day, find out what time the moon sets and watch what the clouds do. Sea tides vary by about 6 feet between low and high tide and in an open area of sea as is the NZ coast, this height can be increased by at least two feet and odd occasions have been reported when tides have been nearer 10 feet. This would be with the new moon/perigee attraction. The aggregated differences between these very low tides and very high tides is not known, but whatever this difference is, if this parallel was made against atmospheric tides, the difference between an atomspheric low tide and an atmospheric high tide would amount to many tens of thousands of feet. Consider, too, the declinations of the moon. One can easily check the differences in declination by observing the rising of the Full Moon and a New moon during December and June. In December the Full Moon rises in the northeastern sky while the New moon rises to the southeast. In June the New moon rises in the northeastern sky while the Full Moon rises to the southeast. These months are used because Full and New moons occur while over the northern and southern declinations during those months. This explains the higher-than-normal atmospheric tide associated with the northern and southern hemispheres in winter from a Full Moon. Perigee is an additional factor which exacerbates.
WHY BAROMETERS LIE
Although the use of satellites has improved the day-to-day forecast, there is still a limiting factor - the satellites cannot measure the depth of the atmosphere, nor can they see at night, which is why our daily broadcasted forecast can change so much from 6am to 12pm. Satellites are still tied to the technology of the barometer. To make a barometer mean anything, meteorologists have to factor out the tide of the air. They do this because the barometer reading at one location has to be compared to the barometric reading at another. Therefore all barometers are adjusted to "mean sea-level" which yields a reading which is called "sea-level pressure" which artificially denies that the atmosphere has any height, let alone a changing one. But the changing height of the atmosphere, which happens as the moon passes daily overhead and then goes down over the horizon is the atmosphere's tide, and it can be discovered if you look for it. On a barograph(very sensitive barometer) readout, you can see a gentle curve or a hump connecting every single moonrise and moonset every day. These humps indicate the air-tide. We know the sea-tide can be measured way ahead, then logically, so can the air-tide. When the air-tide is low, the weather deteriorates. When it is extra-low, weather deteriorates more. When the air-tide is high, which is when the moon is in the sky, the skies are more likely to clear.
WORLD WEATHER HAS BEEN CHANGING
Some often shake their heads and say 30 or so years ago (1968-70) there were more summery days in a row and longer winter frosts. Indeed they are correct. When the moon's declination was 18 degrees, around 1996/7, and a mooncycle further backcalled minimum declination, depressions stayed longer and troughs took longer to pass over the country. Anticyclones, too, remained for longer periods and in the winter gave longer frost periods. When, in 1996/7 the moon was at monthly northern or southern declination, the stationary period for a depression or an anticyclone was considerably longer and they moved away more slowly. Winters and summers in polar regions were colder because the atmosphere was thicker between the tropics, where the moon was, and the polar regions had a relatively reduced atmosphere. As the moon works her way up to 2005-7 (the maximum declination years), our depressions, troughs and anticyclones will tend to get shorter, storms will pass more quickly and frosts and snowfall periods will not linger as long. This is because at minimum declination (1996/7) the moon's movement is so quick, for the 36/37 degrees from north to south takes place in about half a month, whilst in 2005 the same north/south movement of 56/57 degrees will be taking the same half-month. In 1996 the moon's daliy advance northwards at the equator was a leisurely 4 degrees or so. By 2005 the moon will be covering 56 degrees of latitude in the same period of time, and its daily advance at the equator will be a quicker 6 degrees or so. This climactic change is barely perceptible, and unless you have kept daily records for more than 10 years you wouldn't notice.
HELLO?
According to the Metservice's own figures, but which for some strange reason they seem to be staying quiet about, overall Auckland's 2001 year was slightly cooler and wetter than average. No global or any other warming occurred. Rainfall was slightly above average mainly due to a wetter May and December. Temperatures were almost exactly average for each month, the exceptions being August and October.
LETTERS THE HERALD DIDN'T PUBLISH
8/1/02 To Herald
Dear Editor
When asked for the causes of weather, National Climate Centre tell us only that "fine weather is caused by a ridge..a deep low produces disturbed weather..a heat wave is due to a high..and bad weather is caused by a low" (Herald 8th). You don't say! I wonder when they will admit that the moon causes the weather. The last round of worldwide mayhem, from earthquakes in Vanuatu and Cyclone Waka in Tonga, to snow and ice storms in the northern hemisphere, 29th December through 4th January, was due to the three-fold combined effects of Full Moon, pergiee(moon closest to earth)and northern declination. Ancient cultures knew about the moon and its effect on the weather and how to predict way ahead. Studying the moon tells us that another lot of awful weather comes around the 16th. And there will be the chance of snow on Whakapapa in the last days of January.
11/1/02
Dear Editor
The unprecedented build-up of ice in the Ross Sea(Herald, 11th), even in summer time, confirms a long-held NASA claim that Antarctica ice has been slowly thickening for the past 20 years (science@NASA.com October 20th). But who was listening? Perhaps now that thousands of penguins are starving due to growing ice, climate scientists will at last concede that the poles are not melting.
ref: http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2000/ast20oct_1.htm
12/1/02
Dear Editor
I remind you that on the 16th October 2001 the NZ Herald ran this piece.."Cyclone Risk Low - New Zealand is likely to escape being hit by a tropical cyclone this summer.' This was the National Climate Centre prediction - of a summer free of cyclonic weather. I also remind you that the next day, October I7th, in response to that prediction, as part of a larger article on cyclones and what causes them, I sent the following to the editor of the 'Dialogue' column.. .."My results are that tropical cyclones will form on or about the Last Quarter moon of December, meaning 8th - 16th, the Last Quarter moon of January which will be 10th-18th, and the Last Quarter moon of February(9th). There will be bad weather during those time windows, fed by the cyclones..."
14/1/02 Herald
Golf, Tiger Woods And The Weather
Dear Editor
The forecasters are saying this recent rain was a freak event. Hardly. New Moons are nearly always destructive in our summer. January's New Moon is 13th/14th. Last summer, if readers remember, the week of bad weather around the New Moon of December 25, 2000 lasted until the new year storm that lost the historic launch Ruamano. The summer before that saw a week of rain around the New Moon of January 5 2000 (Herald 5/1/00 - "End in Sight To fickle Weather") Event organisers are gambling with high stakes if they expect an open-air event over a summer New Moon to be rain-free.
OTHER BITS AND BOBS
SUBMISSION TO CLIMATE CHANGE COMMITTEE, RE KYOTO PROTOCOL
What we sent to the Ministry of the Environment, urging them to consider that the science behind NZ's decision to ratify is mainly just a heap of nonsense. If you would like a copy of what we sent, simply click "reply" then type in the subject box "send submission".
ALMANAC AVAILABLE
Daily weather predictions two days per page including weather maps and moon information for every day of 2002. (For example the new year's bad weather on the West Coast is right there on page 11). Individual towns are listed for every day, plus an inventory for each month, and 5-year ahead monthly rainfall projections for all NZ areas up to and including year 2006. Send a cheque to Ken Ring, P.O.Box 60197 Titirangi, Auckland. 230 pages, A5 paperback size. $NZ27 + 2 postage
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