Hi if you have just joined this newsletter, which looks behind the weather and way ahead and at the way the moon creates our climate. This revives the ancient mathematical system of longrange weather forecasting, before words like satellite, computer or meteorology were ever dreamed up.
For Saturday, February 2nd.
Crossing equator heading south, 2 days before Last Quarter
Last quarter moon (Monday) is a night moon. Overhead at sunrise, the moon marks the position in the sky where Earth will be in space (on our orbit around the sun) in three and a half hours time. It is a time for cloud in the afternoon and early evening and around that time too, possible rain if about. Rain is less likely after midnight. The last quarter moon evening is also the time for tornadoes and electrical storms wherever conditions for those occur.
JANUARY'S TEMPERATURES FOR AUCKLAND
January's temperatures were taken from the metservice's listings at the back of the Herald. They averaged maximum: 23.36degC and minimum: 15.39degC. Metservice's thirty year averages are 23.8degC and 16.4degC, again squashing notions of global warming, at least around Auckland. The whole of last year was the same: wetter and cooler than average. Rainfall for Auckland in January totalled 92mm, vs the 70mm average, thus far bearing out my prediction of a cooler wetter summer.
There is potential for rain about the 3rd of the month for the North Island and W parts of the South Is. After Sunday the rest of the week should see more dry weather, but chance of showers in the south of the North Is. and the east and south of the South Is. by 7th.
Otago: average rain, cooler
Canterbury: slightly wetter, slightly cooler
Marlborough: average rain, slightly cooler
Wellington: slightly drier, cooler
Masterton: average rain, cooler
Palmerston North: slightly wetter, cooler
Taranaki: wetter, slightly cooler
Bay of Plenty: slightly drier, average temperatures
Waikato: average rain, slightly cooler
Auckland: average rain, cooler
Dargaville: wetter, cooler
Northland: wetter
The potential for earthquakes in this part of the world were predicted to be 1st-3rd, 12th-14th, 18th and 27th-30th.
What occurred? (MH = Mid Heaven: Moon directly overhead. MR = moonrise. MS = moonset).
2nd: Large earthquake in Fiji (MH)
3rd: Vanuatu earthquake, Magnitude 7.0 (MH)
4th: Earthquake NW of Rotorua (MH)
15th: Earthquakes 40km W of Gisborne (4.7mag) and near Haast (MH)
17th: Earthquake 50kms S of Wellington (MS)
25th: Earthquake near Murchison (MR)
28th: Earthquake E of Tolaga Bay (MR)
31st: Eearthquake 40km W of Ohakune.(MH)
(posted ezine January 8..IN THE CRYSTAL BALL)
24th: galeforce winds in Britain and N. Europe
25th: storm in Denmark. Snow in Kiev.
27th: galeforce winds ease up in UK for 8 days. Snow in Ireland and Scotland. Also Kiev and Stockholm.)
As we all know by now, the UK has been lashed with storms. Here are few of the news stories:
1. Heavy and persistent rain over the South Midlands will continue for the next 3 to 4 hours causing some local flooding. Drivers are advised to take extra care as driving conditions are likely to be dangerous. For inquires regarding this warning - please contact your regional Met Office. Transmitted by the Met Office, at 11:11 on Saturday 26 January 2002
2. Fierce gales and heavy rain are lashing the west and south coasts of England. Weathermen report gusts up to 50mph and warn it will get windier before the storms blew themselves out. Coastguards say seas are rough with visibility low but so far there had been no damage to shipping.
Friday 27 January 2002.
Full story: http://www.ananova.com/yournews/story/sm_505147.html
3. Forecasters say gales which have left 15,000 homes without power and caused travel chaos should begin to ease within a few hours. PA Weather Centre says the winds are likely to lessen from 3pm or 4pm, but there will be some rain, sleet and snow overnight. Sunday 29 January 2002.
Hi Ken
Your e-zines are great, jam-packed with interesting stories and stats! You had mentioned snow for Chicago by the 28th. I most certainly hope that you're right! Our winter has been a real dud! 38 out of the past 50 days above normal, incredible! With no EL Nino/La Nina influence, I really had believed this winter would have been much colder and snowier than it has been. I'd love to hear any thoughts you have about the rest of the season. Will my area experience the slightest bit of weather conducive to doing what I love most-skiing? I informed my sister in Florida of your forecast for a hard freeze during the beginning of this month, WOW! Were you right on the money with that one. She had consecutive evenings of below freezing temps, with one night falling to 26F. degrees. As always, keep up the great lunar forecasting work!
Paul
(Here's what snow days I have coming up after January 28. February 3rd-4th, 11th, 17th-18th, more in March and April..I'd say a fair amount coming.- K)
Hi Ken
The 28th. was quite warm with temps in the 50's, BUT hears the kicker, a storm was brewing in the SW and in conjunction with colder air from the north, has produced a significant snowstorm throughout the Midwest. It is currently snowing heavily with upwards of 10 inches forecast by tomorrow when it may then briefly turn to freezing rain! Snow began to fall by 6AM, with many areas to our south receiving 5 inches of the white stuff by mid morning. As I write this, visibilites are down to 1/8 of a mile, NOT BAD! Here's hoping that the rest of those dates you mentioned are as impressive! Thanks again, Ken........
Regards,
Paul
Ken, as one who was scientifically trained, I remember I used to laugh at all the old farmers who dutifully looked up the phases of the moon to decide when to plant; I used to think they were stuck back in some sort of astrologically based fairy-tales.
When I came to Asia I would marvel that so many of the Chinese would plan their lives - at least important things like weddings - by the lunar calendar which is very widely used in this region. Many of our annual public holidays here are based on significant lunar calendar dates, two very significant ones being "Tuen Ng Jit" or the fifth day of the fifth lunar month which is related to the end of winter and the start of summer, and "Jung Chau Jit" or "mid-Autumn Festival" on the fifteenth day of the eighth lunar month which is related to the end of summer and the beginning of winter. The locals here seem to be able to count days before or after these two festivals and then proceed to tell you a prediction such as "On Saturday 15th June 2002 there will be total overcast and general cloudiness with periods of drizzly rain in the morning, the sun will break through for short periods from about 09:30, and from lunch time onwards it will be hot and humid and sunny."
The amazing thing is, that on the few occasions I have written such a prediction down, it has turned out to be 100 percent accurate. (The quotation above is not an actual one - it is just typical of the sort of things that are said if you ask one of these old folks). I don't know how they do it.
The other amazing thing is that the scientists at the HKO (Hong Kong Observatory) pass all this stuff off as outdated folkloric nonsense, yet their scientific forecasts are no more accurate than BoM, NWS or any other "official" forecasters around the world.
This strange ability seems to require generations to have lived in the local area. People whose families have migrated from some other part of China cannot tell you about the local weather here, but they can tell you exactly what the weather will do in the village from which their ancestors came.
It is absolutely related to the lunar calendar and varies from one lunar month to the next, so there must be some annual factors that they are applying as well. I would love to know how they arrive at their forecasts, but when I enquire I am told that it is too difficult to translate into English and that you have to inherit it from your ancestors. So I don't know. They seem to have a skill that actually works but they are unable or unwilling to pass it on.
Phil
Ken, for the last couple of years we have taken our holidays in March and towed our trailer sailer yacht to Northland and spent two weeks floating around and generally having a great time. I have contacted you previously about your thoughts/predictions on the likely weather we could encounter and every time you have been spot on. This year we plan to go to Kauwau Island for the first two weeks of March. Could you please give us some idea of what we might expect. I woud also like to ask you, although you predicted a wet cooler period which we have just had did you expect there to be so much rain . This area here the Manawatu has never had such frequent and heavy rain and such phenomenal grass growth over such a prolonged period, as the locals say in living memory.Presumably the Autumn will be dryer than normal. Thanking you
Don
(As for Kawau Is, the nearest I can get is to look at both Auckland and Whangarei data. Uninterrupted fine weather between 2nd and 12th March is expected for Auckland, whereas for Whangarei it is not quite as good. 24th February through to March 14th sees mainly dry weather, but quite cloudy, with a shower or two generated by southeasterlies coming through around March 8th. Overall, I'd say, the period should be okay, with no storm systems looming. As to your second question, the answer is yes, I expected the month to be wetter. As to autumn, I am expecting the Manawhatu/Taranaki region to be wetter than average in March and drier for April and May, and slightly warmer throughout the three months.-K)
http://clysmic.com/lunabar/
This is a desktop program, a little on the mystical side, but with useful information about phase, rise\set\overhead times.
http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ezines/ezineindex.htm
(ezine archives, thanks to Carl Smith, Gold Coast) or
http://www.topica.com/lists/weather/read
JANUARY
24th: galeforce winds in Britain and N. Europe
25th: storm in Denmark. Snow in Kiev.
27th: galeforce winds ease up in UK for 8 days. Snow in Ireland and Scotland. Also Kiev and Stockholm.
28th: snow in Calgary and Chicago.
29th: snow in Dublin, Oslo and Stockholm
30th: snow in Tokyo, Copenhagen, Calgary and Montreal
31st: snow in Tokyo, Stockholm and Warsaw.
FEBRUARY
1st: snow in Geneva and Copenhagen
3rd: snow in Brussels, Chicago, Geneva, Moscow
4th: snow in Frankfurt and Vienna
5th: snow in Brussels, Geneva, Seoul
6th: snow in Helsinki, Monte Carlo and Yugoslavia
7th: snow in Stockholm, Warsaw
8th: snow in Calgary, Toronto, Frankfurt and Geneva. Britain thaws out. Gale-force winds in Los Angeles.
11th: snow in Chicago and Vienna
12th: snow in Tokyo and Toronto
13th: Threat of floods NSW, snow in Seoul
14th: snow in Toronto
18th: snow in Helsinki, Kiev, Oslo
19th: flood threat in Sri Lanka, snow in Montreal
20th: flood threat in Mozambique
22nd: snow in Belgrade and Moscow
23rd: blizzards in central Europe, Switzerland, Austria
MARCH
11th: wind-whipped storm across lower midwest of USA, snow in St Louis, and Geneva.
Waitangi Day (February 6th, Bay of Islands); dry.
Easter Weekend (March 29-April 1)light showers and fine intervals. Skies clearing after Easter.
The Bay of Plenty will be the place to watch. From now until July not enough rain falls there to reach each monthly average. January and February each see about 6 rain days, with about 10 in March and 5 in April, but most of those days also see considerable sunshine hours.
SNIPPETS STILL RELEVANT, CARRIED OVER FROM LAST EZINE
ARTICLES:
SEASONS
Contrary to expectation, the earth is actually nearer the sun, by three million miles, in the northern hemisphere winter than in the northern hemisphere summer. The actual date of perihelion, or nearest approach, is always the 2nd or 3rd January. The date of greatest distance(aphelion) is 1st or 2nd July. When it is nearer in midwinter, the sun appears to be larger, but only by 1 minute 8 seconds of arc. In fact it causes a 7% increase in solar radiation reaching this planet, and a 7% increase in light and heat. Whatever northerners may think, the northern hemisphere winter is less cold than the southern hemisphere one. Similarly, the northern summer, due to the greater distance from the sun and the decrease in radiation, is less warm than the southern summer. In January, planet earth is travelling around the sun at about 19 miles per second; in July the speed is nearer 18 miles per second. These speed differences help to explain why the seasons are different lengths; in order from longest to shortest being summer, spring, autumn and winter in the northern hemisphere, and winter being the longest by about 9 days in the southern hemisphere. Spring and summer are each about three and a half days longer than autumn and winter in the north.
THE HUMIDITY FACTOR
Contrary to expectation, dry air weighs more than wet air. The reason is that a molecule of water is lighter than a molecule of oxygen or nitrogen. Therefore hot humid air, less dense, will rise and less humid air, being more dense, will stay at ground level. If this were not the case, the evaporation process would not occur and clouds could not form. The less dense, wet air continues rising until condensation occurs and rain falls. Rain is of course, heavier than air. Droplets gather to make rain, but the gathering is massive and slow - it takes one million cloud droplets to make up one raindrop. Gravitational pull increases as mass decreases. That is why as the moon passes above the horizon, it pulls more strongly on the lighter air, that with the water content. The result is that clouds go higher when the moon is in the sky. When the moon goes over the horizon, clouds come closer to earth. On any day, find out what time the moon sets and watch what the clouds do. Sea tides vary by about 6 feet between low and high tide and in an open area of sea as is the NZ coast, this height can be increased by at least two feet and odd occasions have been reported when tides have been nearer 10 feet. This would be with the new moon/perigee attraction. The aggregated differences between these very low tides and very high tides is not known, but whatever this difference is, if this parallel was made against atmospheric tides, the difference between an atomspheric low tide and an atmospheric high tide would amount to many tens of thousands of feet. Consider, too, the declinations of the moon. One can easily check the differences in declination by observing the rising of the Full Moon and a New moon during December and June. In December the Full Moon rises in the northeastern sky while the New moon rises to the southeast. In June the New moon rises in the northeastern sky while the Full Moon rises to the southeast. These months are used because Full and New moons occur while over the northern and southern declinations during those months. This explains the higher-than-normal atmospheric tide associated with the northern and southern hemispheres in winter from a Full Moon. Perigee is an additional factor which exacerbates.
WHY BAROMETERS LIE
Although the use of satellites has improved the day-to-day forecast, there is still a limiting factor - the satellites cannot measure the depth of the atmosphere, nor can they see at night, which is why our daily broadcasted forecast can change so much from 6am to 12pm. Satellites are still tied to the technology of the barometer. To make a barometer mean anything, meteorologists have to factor out the tide of the air. They do this because the barometer reading at one location has to be compared to the barometric reading at another. Therefore all barometers are adjusted to "mean sea-level" which yields a reading which is called "sea-level pressure" which artificially denies that the atmosphere has any height, let alone a changing one. But the changing height of the atmosphere, which happens as the moon passes daily overhead and then goes down over the horizon is the atmosphere's tide, and it can be discovered if you look for it. On a barograph(very sensitive barometer) readout, you can see a gentle curve or a hump connecting every single moonrise and moonset every day. These humps indicate the air-tide. We know the sea-tide can be measured way ahead, then logically, so can the air-tide. When the air-tide is low, the weather deteriorates. When it is extra-low, weather deteriorates more. When the air-tide is high, which is when the moon is in the sky, the skies are more likely to clear.
WORLD WEATHER HAS BEEN CHANGING
Some often shake their heads and say 30 or so years ago (1968-70) there were more summery days in a row and longer winter frosts. Indeed they are correct. When the moon's declination was 18 degrees, around 1996/7, and a mooncycle further backcalled minimum declination, depressions stayed longer and troughs took longer to pass over the country. Anticyclones, too, remained for longer periods and in the winter gave longer frost periods. When, in 1996/7 the moon was at monthly northern or southern declination, the stationary period for a depression or an anticyclone was considerably longer and they moved away more slowly. Winters and summers in polar regions were colder because the atmosphere was thicker between the tropics, where the moon was, and the polar regions had a relatively reduced atmosphere. As the moon works her way up to 2005-7(the maximum declination years), our depressions, troughs and anticyclones will tend to get shorter, storms will pass more quickly and frosts and snowfall periods will not linger as long. This is because at minimum declination(1996/7) the moon's movement is so quick, for the 36/37 degrees from north to south takes place in about half a month, whilst in 2005 the same north/south movement of 56/57 degrees will be taking the same half-month. In 1996 the moon's daliy advance northwards at the equator was a leisurely 4 degrees or so. By 2005 the moon will be covering 56 degrees of latitude in the same period of time, and its daily advance at the equator will be a quicker 6 degrees or so. This climactic change is barely perceptible, and unless you have kept daily records for more than 10 years you wouldn't notice.
SUBMISSION TO CLIMATE CHANGE COMMITTEE, RE KYOTO PROTOCOL
What we sent to the Ministry of the Environment, urging them to consider that the science behind NZ's decision to ratify is mainly just a heap of nonsense. If you would like a copy of what we sent, simply click "reply" then type in the subject box "send submission".
ALMANAC AVAILABLE
Daily weather predictions two days per page including weather maps and moon information for every day of 2002. (For example the new year's bad weather on the West Coast is right there on page 11). Individual towns are listed for every day, plus an inventory for each month, and 5-year ahead monthly rainfall projections for all NZ areas up to and including year 2006. Send a cheque to Ken Ring, P.O.Box 60197 Titirangi, Auckland. 230 pages, A5 paperback size. $NZ27 + 2 postage
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