Hi if you have just joined this newsletter, which looks behind the weather and way ahead and at the way the moon creates our climate. This revives the ancient mathematical system of longrange weather forecasting, before words like satellite, computer or meteorology were ever dreamed up.
Day after 1st Quarter, travelling north with present position halfway between the equator and the northern declination.
The moon is 4 days after crossing the equator heading north. We escaped the windy weather that always accompanies the equatorial crossing, but on the day it crossed which was last Saturday, Sydney had huge really quick storm systems battering it, very typical. Our present settled weather is due to the 1st Q, and if there is any cloud or rain on a 1st Q moon it mainly comes before lunch.
The wind changed today from the SW to NW. Normally around here in Auckland it rains properly when the wind changes to a northeasterly, that means coming from the direction of GT Barrier over Auckland city, a situation I expect over the next couple of days. So around Thursday or Friday I'm picking rain. If the 21st, that'll be just in time for the royal visit, and in Taupo, where the royal entourage is camping out in their luxuries, it should rain till she leaves. For the rest of her tour, to Wellington, Christchurch and Auckland, she should see dry skies. A big band of low pressure is slowly moving north. Widespread rain accompanying this trough crosses the North Island affecting E districts from 21st onwards. Things should clear up again shortly after the weekend. Liz would be well advised to be out of her country after the end of the month, as it's going to be very stormy in Britain just after 3rd March. Why?
On February 28 the moon will be the closest it comes to earth for THE WHOLE YEAR. The stormy effects will hit Britain between March 2 and 8. The storm will probably hit Ireland first, resulting in floods in Dublin. By the 5th all of Ireland should be affected. Between March 4 - 8 stormy weather will be widespread over Britain. What about lil'ol'NZ? You just can't pick what perigee weather will do, but it will be extreme. If rain, then real hard rain, if none then it will be scorching hot. Winds and very high tides are a certainty. Earthquake potential is very high. After the 28th this whole country is in for some 12 days worth of fine weather.
Every 4th year the apogee(moon furthest from earth each month)occurs where the perigee(closest for the month)was. Declinations north and south are exactly reversed. The northern hemisphere is still receiving extreme weather around perigees because for the last few years perigees have been over that hemisphere. After April 2003 the situation reverses and the southern hemisphere gets a turn. The disastrous weather expected just a few days after February 28 in the north will be what we can expect after 2003.
We said last month that this February will turn out to be wetter and cooler than average, just like January was. This means there are some heavy falls coming. So far temperatures are less than the official February average in Auckland. March in my opinion, is going to see more rain than average also, but normal temperatures. And after that, April to December, which is autumn right through till next spring, the rainfall around the Auckland region will drop below average.
People are beginning to ask me about the ski season, and I think the season will be a good one, but it just won't break any records. Temperatures will be slightly milder compared to last year with less rainfall. Rain brings snow and although they have the machines now for making it, certain temperatures are needed to sustain it so the warmer rain doesn't wash it away as fast as it can be manufactured. Again, the early-bird tickets will still be a bargain, and the earlier you get them the cheaper they are. My first snowfall predictions report will be posted in April.
Easter is coming, and I think there will be widespread light showers not too far away from most areas which will lift after the Tuesday when everyone goes back to work. That happens every Easter. So as Easter is a holiday that is tied to the moon, anyone who watches weather and the moon is not going to be surprised that the weather repeats Easter after Easter. So long as they always make it the weekend of the first Full Moon after the spring equinox they will get roughly the same conditions each time. Perhaps one day they will consider holding the Easter break on the following weekend when it is nearly always more likely to be fine and sunny.
GLOBAL WARMING BOLLOCKS-UPDATES
1. Scientists say global warming will continue for the next hundred years even if the use of fossil fuels is dramatically reduced. Climate models indicate temperature increases of three to more than 10 degrees Fahrenheit this century. Meanwhile a rise in sea levels of six inches to nearly three feet is also being observed.
Full story: http://www.ananova.com/yournews/story/sm_523061.html
2. Climate experts in the US military say the Arctic will have open sea lanes within 13 years. The region is normally ice-locked, but if the changes in climate continue the summer ice-cap could disappear altogether within 50 years.
Full story: http://www.ananova.com/yournews/story/sm_521852.html
3. New evidence suggests melting glaciers could make global sea levels rise by more than double what was previously thought. The data shows experts have seriously underestimated the amount by which sea levels are expected to rise by the end of the century. The University of Colorado researchers warn sea levels could be could be approaching a potentially disastrous point by 2100.
Full story: http://www.ananova.com/yournews/story/sm_522566.html
4. A climate expert says global warming could be balanced out by the cooling effect of car exhausts. He says aerosols pumped out by vehicles can lead to the formation of rain droplets in clouds which, in turn, has a cooling effect. Computer climate models which predict global warming may not have taken this effect into account.
http://www.ananova.com/yournews/story/sm_52443.html .
>From Brian Handwerk, National Geographic News, February 15, 2002
"New light might be shed on predicting volcanic eruptions based on research conducted at the Aletotian islands. Research finds that volcanic eruptions may be linked to changes in lunar cycles.
Volcano hunters Steve and Donna O'Meara believe that they may have identified a connection that some volcano watchers have noted since early times, but none has adequately studied - the role of the moon in affecting volcanic activity.
The O'Mearas' interest in this lunar theory began by chance back in 1996, while the duo was studying an erupting volcano in the field. Steve is an astronomer by training, and it was his experience in this seemingly unrelated field that led him to a fateful discovery. While compiling detailed journals of his scientific observations, he began to notice a correlation between increasing volcanic activity and lunar cycles. Pouring through stacks of data he had collected over twenty years in the field, Steve examined past eruptions and saw some of the same patterns.
Further research suggested that a lunar pattern was also apparent in some famous historic eruptions, such as Krakatoa in 1883.
Other observers throughout history had noted the possibility of such a connection, but always as a footnote, and always when looking back at eruptions that had already occurred. No one had given the matter comprehensive study, and no one had attempted to employ these lunar patterns as one of the tools to predict future volcanic eruptions.."
CLIMATE CHANGE MEETING, Employers and Manufacturers Federation.
Today I attended the whole-day talks organised by the employers and managers of industry. The IPCC chairman gave a speech, as did Bill English (Leader of the Opposition), Michael Cullen (Finance Minister), Chris de Freitas (Auckland University), Alistair Poulson (Federated Farmers chairman) and several others. I prepared some copies of a handout entitled 'Truths about Global Warming' which I handed to as many people as possible. I handed one to Bill English, who smiled and took it eagerly, then immediately dropped it on the floor beneath his chair. Then a few minutes later he got up and moved away, with his PA closely at his heels. I retrieved the booklet from the floor, ran after the PA and thrust it into her hand, saying "Excuse me, Mr English dropped this; it looks important. Could you please make sure he gets it?" (The lengths one has to go to..)
Otago: average rain, cooler
Canterbury: slightly wetter, slightly cooler
Marlborough: average rain, slightly cooler
Wellington: slightly drier, cooler
Masterton: average rain, cooler
Palmerston North: slightly wetter, cooler
Taranaki: wetter, slightly cooler
Bay of Plenty: slightly drier, average temperatures
Waikato: average rain, slightly cooler
Auckland: average rain, cooler
Dargaville: wetter, cooler
Northland: wetter
The potential for earthquakes in this part of the world are predicted to be 14th, 16th, 23rd and 27th.
Ken
I note with interest your prediction in your last e-zine of an earthquake in Sth America around the new moon. I note also that on the two days following the new moon a third of the earthquakes recorded by the USGS were in or around South America. How could you tell that South America would receive higher earthquake activity? I can understand picking a latitude to receive higher activity as the moon is in a particular latitude during it's monthly declination cycle, but how can you predict longitude?
Kris
(At the start of each month I construct a table showing time-zones corresponding to latitude vertical lines on a flat map of the world. On this I plot moonrises and put a dot at the declination corresponding to that for each day. I end up with a sine curve which stretches across the world. It virtually tells me the longitude at which the chance of moon events is maybe about to take place. On the new moon day of the 13th the rising moon was directly over S America, declination about 10degS with a moonrise time of 8.30am. That's it.-K)
http://clysmic.com/lunabar/
This is a desktop program, a little on the mystical side, but with useful information about phase, rise\set\overhead times.
http://users.qldnet.com.au/~carls/ezines/ezineindex.htm
(ezine archives, thanks to Carl Smith, Gold Coast) or
http://www.topica.com/lists/weather/read
SUBMISSION TO CLIMATE CHANGE COMMITTEE, RE KYOTO PROTOCOL
What we sent to the Ministry of the Environment, urging them to consider that the science behind NZ's decision to ratify is mainly just a heap of nonsense. If you would like a copy of what we sent, simply click "reply" then type in the subject box "send submission".
WEATHER ALMANAC 2002 AVAILABLE
Daily weather predictions two days per page including weather maps and moon information for every day of 2002. (For example the new year's bad weather on the West Coast is right there on page 11). Individual towns are listed for every day, plus an inventory for each month, and 5-year ahead monthly rainfall projections for all NZ areas up to and including year 2006. Send a cheque to Ken Ring, P.O.Box 60197 Titirangi, Auckland. 230 pages, A5 paperback size. $NZ27 + 2 postage
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